We Aren't a Lock for the Tourney Yet
- Thread starter ccyclonepower25
- Start date
Purdue should beat Penn State so at the worst they will finish 19-13 with an 9-9 conferece record. This is at the worst. Even with that I think they would be in over us if we lose the last 4. Their resume would still be better than ours. With Northwester it is hard to say. I doubt that the would get in before us. They have a lot of work to do before they get in.
Here how we get left out by going 0-4:
- 21 Teams from 19 "one-bid" leagues (The Beach and Murray State lose their tournaments)
- 34 Teams Already In (I could be wrong, but don't bother arguing specific teams - that's not the point): Temple, St. Louis, UNC, FSU, Duke, Virginia, Mizzou, Kansas, Baylor, KSU, Syracuse, Marquette, ND, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, Mich State, tOSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Southern Miss, Memphis, Wichita State, Creighton, New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, California, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
- UCLA (or Colorado, Oregon, etc) wins Pac-12 tournament. LaSalle (or St. Joes, UMASS, Dayton) wins the A-10. This could happen in other leagues, but I really doubt it happens in more than 2 total.
Then these 11 bubble teams get selected in front of us (I threw in a 12th for good measure):
Purdue
BYU
West Virginia
UCONN
Texas
Washington
Arizona
Miami (FL)
Alabama
Xavier
Northwestern
VCU
- 21 Teams from 19 "one-bid" leagues (The Beach and Murray State lose their tournaments)
- 34 Teams Already In (I could be wrong, but don't bother arguing specific teams - that's not the point): Temple, St. Louis, UNC, FSU, Duke, Virginia, Mizzou, Kansas, Baylor, KSU, Syracuse, Marquette, ND, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, Mich State, tOSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Southern Miss, Memphis, Wichita State, Creighton, New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, California, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
- UCLA (or Colorado, Oregon, etc) wins Pac-12 tournament. LaSalle (or St. Joes, UMASS, Dayton) wins the A-10. This could happen in other leagues, but I really doubt it happens in more than 2 total.
Then these 11 bubble teams get selected in front of us (I threw in a 12th for good measure):
Purdue
BYU
West Virginia
UCONN
Texas
Washington
Arizona
Miami (FL)
Alabama
Xavier
Northwestern
VCU
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Then name the 37 non-automatic qualifiers that will have a better resume than us. The bubble is weak this year, which means that most likely (~90%) we are in even if we don't win another game.
Our RPI will still be in the 40's. Teams with a winning record in a Top 3 conference, 20 wins and an RPI in the 40s don't get left out very often.
Another thing I guess is that the committee seems to be in love with the mid majors the last few years. There were a few mid majors that definately didn't deserve to get in last year. UAB and VCU didn't deserve to get in on selection sunday, but then VCU did end up proving that they belonged.
We are guaranteed to play 4 more, three conference and one conference tourney. He is saying ISU needs to win one of those four remaining games.
Well done. Way to back it up with names.
Here's the stats of the 11 you picked in front of us:
So, yes, we would be on the bubble with those teams if we lose out. But it would require no teams to fall off of that list, and several teams to pick up big wins (like Northwestern beating OSU).
So, yes, that could happen. Frankly giving it a 10% chance of happening is probably too high, but after that analysis I'm staying with a 90% chance we get in if we go 0-4.
This team will win another game. KSU is coming off 2 big games. MU will be coming of KU. Baylor is Baylor. Tech was our bad game. This team is now looking for respect, they will be ready for the last 3. Not say we will win them all but who knows with this team. They could also lost them all.
What we have here, fellers, is a classic 9 or 10 seed.
Nothing that truly puts us on shaky ground, but not much evidence that says, "Oh yeah, that's definitely a tournament team."
I'd breathe easier if we could make a nudge into classic 7 area — still not a head-turning resume, but a lock.
I'm sure a part of the reason a lot of us are edgier than we ought to be: Seven years since ISU got a tournament bid, and 11 since we got in without sweating a bit during the final two weeks.
That's why we're hesitant to count chickens before they hatch. But the eggs sure do look like they're in good shape.
Nothing that truly puts us on shaky ground, but not much evidence that says, "Oh yeah, that's definitely a tournament team."
I'd breathe easier if we could make a nudge into classic 7 area — still not a head-turning resume, but a lock.
I'm sure a part of the reason a lot of us are edgier than we ought to be: Seven years since ISU got a tournament bid, and 11 since we got in without sweating a bit during the final two weeks.
That's why we're hesitant to count chickens before they hatch. But the eggs sure do look like they're in good shape.
I don't care if we are a 12 seed.
I will be shouting from the mountaintops if we do get selected following the nuclear winters under the McD turd burger.
I will be shouting from the mountaintops if we do get selected following the nuclear winters under the McD turd burger.
I think we are looking at this the wrong way. We have 3 games left to vastly improve our resume against 2 top 20 teams and a top 50 rpi team. This is what you want if you're a "bubble" team, a chance to prove your worth.
With that I think the toughest game will be at Manhattan. KSU will be playing for their tournament lives and ISU is considered a good win, as strange as that sounds.
With that I think the toughest game will be at Manhattan. KSU will be playing for their tournament lives and ISU is considered a good win, as strange as that sounds.
I'd take a 12 over a 9. Give us a slightly better chance to advance more than one round.
I am a newb. My buddy introduced me to this site and it is amazing. I would also like to say when and if I ever start a thread. I will be sure to post the correct information unlike ccyclonepower25.
Cant wait for saturday, its gonna be a huge game for us.
GO CLONES!!!!!!
Thank goodness. You can all go home now. The discussion is over. We have a definitive answer. Whew.
