We Aren't a Lock for the Tourney Yet
- Thread starter ccyclonepower25
- Start date
Kansas State a few years back would disagree. And they had 2 less games to play.
I think we're in though. But I would feel a lot better if we win 1 or 2 more
Not when only 3 of them are against teams in the top 100....if it makes you feel better to proclaim us a lock then please continue to do so, but the reality is that we need another quality win to be anything more than a coin flip on selection sunday.
I still don't think we can talk about "locks" or whatnot based on our record in a vacuum. You have to compare the teams around the fringes of getting in and compare them to each other. It's not a statistical threshold we're trying to achieve here.
It just baffles me how people are so sure we are a lock, even if we lose out. Two quality wins, none on the road, not a big name, and would have lost 4 in a row. Not saying we couldn't get in but far from a lock. Even with one win I wouldn't say we were a lock, it would be likely but not a lock. Still think people are getting a little over confident, maybe being a State fan has just made me cynical, but I won't be sure until we win 2 games or I hear our name called.
so the logic amongst several posters in this thread is that 3 top 100 wins is so crappy we're in serious trouble, but 4 means we're a lock?
its more likely our 3 decent wins puts us in incredibly good position (>12 at large teams currently behind us, and in the field) and one more is a lock.
can't have it both ways.
oh, and should iowa, ou, and okie state pull a few upsets, we'll gain 4 top 100 wins and lose a > top 100 loss without doing anything.
When you distort what people are saying in order to make an argument your argument doesn't hold much water.
I think most would agree that one more win probably puts us over the top if we aren't already OK.
One more win would be a TOP 50 win. Different animal.
Reasons why our record against the Top 100 is bad (note I'm using realtimerpi and it isn't quite up to date) :
1. 44% of our Top 100 RPI games have come against Top 10 RPI teams.
2. We haven't played any teams in the 62-100 range. UNI is 61.
3. We've played 5 games against RPI 101-120, and are 4-1 against them (with the loss coming AT #102).
Good thing the committee looks at other numbers.
1. 44% of our Top 100 RPI games have come against Top 10 RPI teams.
2. We haven't played any teams in the 62-100 range. UNI is 61.
3. We've played 5 games against RPI 101-120, and are 4-1 against them (with the loss coming AT #102).
Good thing the committee looks at other numbers.
Just my opinion but I think that's a big assumption. I could see our RPI clinging to the 40s but IMO we'd be in the 50s, and that's really, really shaky ground.
CBS RPI today has our RPI at 42. Realtime RPI has our it at 43. It's definitely conceivable that our RPI would drop 7 or 8 spots with for straight losses, let alone the fact that we'd be ending on a huge skid and our noncon was nothing to write home about.
I'm not saying that I would expect us to be out. I'm just saying that if selection sunday comes and we are on the outside looking in I would find it perfectly understandable.
That said I think we get at least one in the next four.
Meltdown will be legendary if we go 0-4 and get left out in favor of someone like Northwestern or god forbid Iowa (if they won out and won a game or two in the tournament)
It would be but it would be dumb. The committee would have plenty of reasons to leave out us.
$50, the odds of us winning 4 out of 6 are roughly 50 to 1, so I assume you're comfortable giving me those odds.
Our RPI will go up in our next 2 games even if we lose. The Baylor game will be close to pickem, so there won`t be much impact there.
