I don't think we'll ever know what the committe would've done if we finished 0-4.
Hypothetically of course.
4-2 and a 6 seed, book it.
Hypothetically of course.
4-2 and a 6 seed, book it.
We Aren't a Lock for the Tourney Yet
- Thread starter ccyclonepower25
- Start date
The committe has to find teams. Honestly if we lose out I still think we will get an 11 or 12 seed.
It comes down to teams in lesser conferences winning their conference tournament and not letting a scab team sneak in.
Say Murray State, Middle Tennessee State, or VCU doesn't win their conference tourney then they will get an at large bid and a team that wouldn't have made the dance would get in. I could see one of these situations affecting ISU unless we win at least one more game.
Say Murray State, Middle Tennessee State, or VCU doesn't win their conference tourney then they will get an at large bid and a team that wouldn't have made the dance would get in. I could see one of these situations affecting ISU unless we win at least one more game.
I guess its not much different than last year. Colorado got left out and the committee had a love fest with the Big 10 and took a bunch of 19-14 teams instead. We really won't know what is going to happen if we lose the next 4 straight. 20-12 with a 10-8 record in the Big 12 is not as impressive as other years. Also, we would only have 2 wins vs RPI top 50 teams. Thats not very good.
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Usually, as fans, we have the luxury to look forward. However, right now all I can think about is the week going into @ Colorado in football two years ago. Win that game and we're bowling no matter what happens the rest of the season.
Well, we laid an egg. I'll be on the edge of my seat for every possession during every game for the rest of the year. I freaking love this feeling!!! Loyal sons forever true!!!
Well, we laid an egg. I'll be on the edge of my seat for every possession during every game for the rest of the year. I freaking love this feeling!!! Loyal sons forever true!!!
Please stop talking about any last X games metric. The NCAA eliminated the last 10, last 5 or any other last X metric a few years ago. They finally realized it was rewarding teams whose conference schedule was front loaded and penalizing teams who had a back loaded conference schedule.
See the NCAA's Nitty-Gritty sheet. This is directly from the NCAA site and is what the selection committee uses.
NCAA
There is not a last X metric on it.
The biggest concern I have is the non-con RPI. It gives an advantage to teams who load up non-con and play a weak conference schedule over those whose schedule strength is within their conference.
See the NCAA's Nitty-Gritty sheet. This is directly from the NCAA site and is what the selection committee uses.
NCAA
There is not a last X metric on it.
The biggest concern I have is the non-con RPI. It gives an advantage to teams who load up non-con and play a weak conference schedule over those whose schedule strength is within their conference.
Yeah, i would say that metric is useful for judging teams with a weak conference schedule (something they can't always help) but shouldnt penalize teams that have plenty of strength within their conference.
This is the point that a lot of people are overlooking. If our RPI stays decent (and playing who we are playing it will), we should be ok. I am confident we get in with a 10-8 record, but let's not rely on that and have any chance we are left out. I think even if we lose out our chances are much better than 50-50, but you never know, so lets grab a few more wins. :smile:
Agreed. I think we're probably 80% even if we lose out (the committee will see who we lost to were good teams), but who wouldnt want us to win another (or more) and really lock it up?
Yeah, I totally agree. And I looked up the KSU 10-6 team and it looks like their RPI was 56 (or therabouts). If our RPI stays strong, we'll be ok, but yeah, let's get some wins and help our seeding/lock it up.
I'm not ready to call a lock yet, but it'd be hard to play our way out at this point, considering the schedule that lies ahead.
No bad losses are possible for remainder of regular season.
The only possible "play-out" is losing all 3, followed by a loss in B12 first round vs. unlikely opponent (OSU) or extremely unlikely (OU, which from what I can tell, would require beating Baylor* anyway, in addition to several other insane results):
Bracket Generator
No bad losses are possible for remainder of regular season.
The only possible "play-out" is losing all 3, followed by a loss in B12 first round vs. unlikely opponent (OSU) or extremely unlikely (OU, which from what I can tell, would require beating Baylor* anyway, in addition to several other insane results):
Bracket Generator
I never have. I have no idea what the odds are if we go 0-4. I just know it isn't a lock.
Except the B1G Conference will have only 6 teams with .500 or better conference records. Northwestern is out IMO. NO WAY they make the Tourney unless they would somehow upset Ohio State. Even then, they have some losses that are not very good. Other than MSU they have beaten NO ONE. Purdue has beaten NO ONE. IMO, it is more of a stretch to take Purdue over us.
And Northwestern was completely blown out by Baylor BTW.
According to the NCAA team stat sheets as of sunday, Purdue is 1-6 vs. top 25 opponents, and 5-7 vs. top 50.
ISU is 1-4 vs top 25, and 2-6 vs. top 50.
If you add in the names, ISUs top 25 win sounds (and probably really is) more impressive than Purdue's (Temple), but I'm not sure how much that matters to the committee. Purdue's resume looks better to me as of right now.
Do those of you who think we're a lock realize that if we lose our last 4 games we will be 3-10 vs. the RPI top 100 with the three wins all being at home? Add on the +100 losses to Drake and OSU and that is trouble, and I don't care how weak you think the bubble is this year. I've said all along, that if we don't make the tourney, we have no one to blame but ourselves. We have 4 chances to pick up another quality win, and frankly, if we can't win at least one of these games with this much on the line, we don't deserve to get in anyway.
