We Aren't a Lock for the Tourney Yet

[cycfan]

I think we are in now. If our last 3 games were aTm, OU and OK St. and we lost all 3, then I could see us being left out. We have KSU on the road, MU (top 10) on the road, and Baylor (top 15). Won't be favored in any of them. We have a 2 game lead on KSU with 3 to play. Not sure what their schedule is, but they would have to win all 3 and us loose all 3 for them to pass us in the B12. We are tied with Baylor. The worst we could be is 20-12, 10-9. I believe KU, MU, BU, ISU and KSU get in. TX with a chance, but they need to win at least 2-3.

I think we'll beat Baylor at home to put everyone's mind at ease.

GO CYCLONES!!!

 

[atlantacyclone]

If KSU beats us then there is a good chance that they will pass us ... I don't see Texas catching up as they play KU at home... I think that ISU has a better chance of winning one or two than someone passing ISU.

 

[Cydkar]

I think we are in now. If our last 3 games were aTm, OU and OK St. and we lost all 3, then I could see us being left out. We have KSU on the road, MU (top 10) on the road, and Baylor (top 15). Won't be favored in any of them. We have a 2 game lead on KSU with 3 to play. Not sure what their schedule is, but they would have to win all 3 and us loose all 3 for them to pass us in the B12. We are tied with Baylor. The worst we could be is 20-12, 10-9. I believe KU, MU, BU, ISU and KSU get in. TX with a chance, but they need to win at least 2-3.

I think we'll beat Baylor at home to put everyone's mind at ease.

GO CYCLONES!!!

Big 12 standings are irrelevant. KSU will be seeded ahead of us based on their resume' unless we win a game out of these next 4. Obviously the 2 games left against KSU will clear thing up. If we lose both it won't matter if KSU has no other wins, they will be seeded ahead of us.

 

[jbhtexas]

This. People that think we are a lock are too young or too naive to have seen multiple teams with decent resume's left out. It does seem like other bubble teams are dropping important games but an 0-4 end of season stretch will turn off more than one selection committee member.

Yup. 2007...23-12 (10-6) KSU gets jumped by 21-13 (9-7) TT, and the Big 12 only sends four to the NCAA (KU,TAMU,UT,TT). KSU faltered a little bit and the end and ended up in the NIT, while TT finished well and went to the NCAA tourney.

 

[Cydkar]

A 9-7 Iowa team got passed over by Indiana even though they swept Indiana that year.

I may have the actual numbers incorrect but they got jumped.

 

[cycfan]

I think we are in now. If our last 3 games were aTm, OU and OK St. and we lost all 3, then I could see us being left out. We have KSU on the road, MU (top 10) on the road, and Baylor (top 15). Won't be favored in any of them. We have a 2 game lead on KSU with 3 to play. Not sure what their schedule is, but they would have to win all 3 and us loose all 3 for them to pass us in the B12. We are tied with Baylor. The worst we could be is 20-12, 10-9. I believe KU, MU, BU, ISU and KSU get in. TX with a chance, but they need to win at least 2-3.

I think we'll beat Baylor at home to put everyone's mind at ease.

GO CYCLONES!!!

One caveat to this is that we need to play well. If we get beat by 30 a couple of times, it would be trouble.

 

[gocubs2118]

People need to stop comparing what could happen to past years. Compare it to this years bubble teams. Even if we lose all 4 games, which we won't, the bubble is still extremely weak and we'll probably still have a better resume than most of the teams that are currently in the last 4 in. No, we won't be a lock and I will sure as hell be nervous but I'd still feel good about our chances of getting in.

 

[Cydkar]

People need to stop comparing what could happen to past years. Compare it to this years bubble teams. Even if we lose all 4 games, which we won't, the bubble is still extremely weak and we'll probably still have a better resume than most of the teams that are currently in the last 4 in. No, we won't be a lock and I will sure as hell be nervous but I'd still feel good about our chances of getting in.

Thank you for proving my point.

 

[benjay]

Win the next 6 and we're a 3 seed. :spinny:

 

[jbhtexas]

People need to stop comparing what could happen to past years. Compare it to this years bubble teams. Even if we lose all 4 games, which we won't, the bubble is still extremely weak and we'll probably still have a better resume than most of the teams that are currently in the last 4 in. No, we won't be a lock and I will sure as hell be nervous but I'd still feel good about our chances of getting in.

For me, the "weak bubble" argument is rather tenuous. First, it is debateable whether the bubble is as weak as some claim it is, and secondly, the strength of the bubble can change significantly over the course of the next week and half. For example, UT is probably off (or barely on) the bubble right now. However, they have two very winnable games left, and if they can knock off KU@KU to finish 10-6, and they firmly are on the bubble.

 

[ahaselhu]

The bubble is weak and a lot of teams are in much worse shape than us. We are solidly in right now and even if we lose 4 straight, I still put our odds of getting in at 90%.

I did some comparisons in the resumes between the teams currently projected at 6-12 seeds. I only found one that we have a better resume than. I really don't see how people are projecting us as a 9 seed right now. We really only have 2, MAYBE 3 (if you count Texas) quality wins, and none on the road. That doesn't compare well with the other teams currently seeded.

However, the bubble is weak, and it may be enough to get us in anyway. If we lose our last 4, I would say its at best 50/50 whether we get invited or not. It's certainly not unheard of for a 4th place team from the Big 12, just over .500 in conference play, with a weak non-conference resume, to get left out of the tournament, as Khaal53 has previously pointed out.

All that being said, I think a win in any of our last four games gets us in, and I think we'll do that.

 

[huntt26]

We need another signature win to be a lock. Win ANY game that is left, and there's our signature win.

 

[Wappadu]

Win the next 6 and we're a 3 seed. :spinny:

This idea intrigues me and I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. There is way too much glass half full analysis going on right now. Is the glass full enough to get an invite? Yes, no, probably, maybe...doesn't matter at this point. That stuff will take care of itself. Sweep KState first, then there will be enough water in the glass that we can all take a drink and still be sitting pretty.

 

[huntt26]

I did some comparisons in the resumes between the teams currently projected at 6-12 seeds. I only found one that we have a better resume than. I really don't see how people are projecting us as a 9 seed right now. We really only have 2, MAYBE 3 (if you count Texas) quality wins, and none on the road. That doesn't compare well with the other teams currently seeded.

However, the bubble is weak, and it may be enough to get us in anyway. If we lose our last 4, I would say its at best 50/50 whether we get invited or not. It's certainly not unheard of for a 4th place team from the Big 12, just over .500 in conference play, with a weak non-conference resume, to get left out of the tournament, as Khaal53 has previously pointed out.

All that being said, I think a win in any of our last four games gets us in, and I think we'll do that.

Great post, need another quality win. Luckily we have at least 4 more games coming up against quality opponents.

 

[leroycyclone]

I agree we need to win more. But, we are in with 20 wins and 10 conference wins.

Joe Lunardi said that 6 Big 12 teams will be in.

 

[Cydkar]

Joe Lunardi said that 6 Big 12 teams will be in.

Now we're screwed. :smile:

 

[Stormin]

Big Ten should get 6 teams in at the max. Look at the bubble teams. Their resumes are not good. Northwestern is pitiful. And our losses are not that atrocious. We have beaten a likely #1 seed in the NCAA's. We are a lock unless we have a complete collapse and get blown out by 20 in our last 4 games.

 

[Cyclonz]

At this moment I think we are in - however I would get a little nervous if we lose the final three and lose one game in the tourney - a four game losing streak and finishing 20 and 12 would definitely make me uneasy on selection Sunday.

One more win puts me at 100% certainty.

 

[CYphyllis]

This. People that think we are a lock are too young or too naive to have seen multiple teams with decent resume's left out. It does seem like other bubble teams are dropping important games but an 0-4 end of season stretch will turn off more than one selection committee member.

And some people are too old or feable to remember how the selection committee works.

You all feel free to sweat it out and freak out like children after ISU drops a game, which in reality would be the absolute norm around here.

 

[brokenloginagain]

why do so many isu fans dislike lunardi? he's a "little guy" like us (the eric heft of st. joe's). are his brackets really that bad? he does a good job of using data, and almost always spends the season making fun of all the teams we like to make fun of too.

per his latest bracket, there are FIFTEEN at large teams behind us in the current standings (those that are also in the tourney). Plus you have the other first four out category.

i'm 99% confident that if we lose out from here, there ARE NOT 19 teams that will jump ahead of us.