I have given you many reasons why the Big 12 will be around for a long time and you have given NO VALID REASONS why it won't. Not saying to predict the future, but to give a reason why. Everything you said are things are conditions that no longer exist.
Hoops, maybe the most critical reason is this: There is no clear consensus among members on what the Big 12 wants itself to be. The false start on the WVU offer is just another example.
Should the B12 remain a 10-team league? Or go back to 12?
Is the B12 a Midwestern conference? Or is it a better, more expanded version of the SWAC?
Does the B12 expand by finding the best athletic programs it can, no matter where? Or does it seek to grow in its region, looking for schools that can bring new markets and new revenue?
There's room for disagreement, and arguments to be made for each. But these are FUNDAMENTAL components of why a conference exists. The Big 10, Pac 12, and SEC all have clear ideas of what they are, and every major decision they make reinforces that. These are far more important issues that revenue sharing, Tier 3 networks, or bowl slotting. If you can't agree on THESE, how do you move forward?
All conferences have internal conflicts. Usually they're resolved through give-and-take negotiation behind closed doors. Nothing is decided until everyone's on board. Yet how many times have we seen the B12 make a "decision" only to reverse or contradict itself later?
The only thing more surprising than the Big 12's dysfunction is how well its programs have performed IN SPITE of the conference. The Big East is weak, and doesn't have a lot of great teams. Think of how great the Big 12 could have been with better leadership.