Big 12 Championship Game Projection

Discussion in 'Football' started by Dale, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. yoteforever

    yoteforever Active Member

    Dec 24, 2008
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    I don’t get why about everyone has penciled in a loss at Oklahoma. I like our chances. I saw them play in September when they played South Dakota and although they’re good, they aren’t invincible. We have a bye week prior to the game as do they. I think we play with them.
     
    • Agree Agree x 6
  2. bosco

    bosco Well-Known Member

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    If we have beaten BU then I feel the same way but I think this team has had the B12 title in their sights since the start and knows they probably need to win out to get there.
     
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  3. every_yard

    every_yard Well-Known Member

    Aug 25, 2006
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    Yep. In your 60 point scenario, Texas would be the 1st team to be eliminated via tie-breaker scenarios. Baylor would then beat us based on head to head matchup result.
     
  4. mtowncyclone13

    mtowncyclone13 Well-Known Member

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    So we need to beat UT by a few points as possible?

    I literally don't know if I can *not* cheer for complete and total destruction.
     
  5. CheapClone1202

    Sep 8, 2019
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    Agree. 1. We don’t get blown out. 2. We have a really really good team. 3. They are very beatable.
     
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  6. Rogue52

    Rogue52 Well-Known Member

    Oct 20, 2006
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    I’m trying to figure out what messed up scenario has us winning out but NOT making title game.
     
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  7. CheapClone1202

    Sep 8, 2019
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    there‘d be a 3 way tie for 1st with Oklahoma, B*ylor and us all with 1 loss. Would think that it would be us and Oklahoma in the title game but I have no idea.
     
  8. cyfanatic13

    cyfanatic13 Well-Known Member

    Dec 19, 2008
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    We win out, OU beats Baylor. Three way tie for 1st. Assuming we'd probably lose a tiebreaker somehow
     
  9. ISUCyclones2015

    ISUCyclones2015 Well-Known Member

    Dec 19, 2010
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    If we win out. Baylor only loses to OU. And OU only loses to us. I'm not sure if we're in
     
  10. harimad

    harimad Well-Known Member

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    And we only lose to Baylor. The team with the lowest point differential in the three games between ISU, BU and OU would be eliminated.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2010
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    #71 Dale, Oct 20, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    Okay — as mentioned earlier, I was working on a variation on my original program that figures out the help/harm for ISU of every remaining Big 12 game.

    It's done. Below are all the games with at least a 1 percent impact. For example...

    Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)

    ...means that ISU would have a 24.8% chance at making the title game with an Texas win and a 12.3% chance with a Baylor win, with a difference of 12.5%.

    ISU wins and Baylor losses kinda dominate the top of the list, not unexpectedly.

    Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 37.7% (11.7% to 49.4%)
    Iowa St. over Texas: 28.5% (3.0% to 31.5%)
    Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 15.8% (8.5% to 24.3%)
    Iowa St. over Oklahoma St.: 15.1% (8.3% to 23.4%)
    Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)
    Iowa St. over Kansas: 12.5% (7.4% to 19.9%)
    West Virginia over Baylor: 12.4% (16.2% to 28.6%)
    TCU over Baylor: 12.2% (12.8% to 25.0%)
    Kansas over Baylor: 11.6% (16.6% to 28.2%)
    Oklahoma over Baylor: 5.0% (14.8% to 19.8%)
    TCU over Oklahoma: 4.1% (18.4% to 22.5%)
    Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma: 3.3% (18.3% to 21.6%)
    Kansas St. over Oklahoma: 3.2% (18.6% to 21.8%)
    TCU over Texas: 2.6% (17.7% to 20.3%)
    Texas Tech over Texas: 1.4% (18.5% to 19.9%)
     
    • Informative Informative x 3
  12. theshadow

    theshadow Well-Known Member

    Apr 19, 2006
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    If it gets to scoring differential, I think y=2x-2 is the formula, where x is ISU's margin over UT and y is the margin that UT can beat BU by and still allow for ISU to win the 3-way tiebreaker. The minimum ISU margin over UT would have to be 2, though.

    That would leave ISU and UT tied on points, with BU out. ISU then beats UT on head to head.

    So if ISU beats UT by 7, UT can beat BU by 12 and ISU still wins the tiebreaker.
    If ISU beats UT by 10, the UT/BU cushion grows to 18.
    ....and so on.
     
  13. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Exactly right, except the program randomly picks a tiebreaker winner once it makes it to the points-based tiebreakers.
     
  14. MEforSTATE

    MEforSTATE New Member

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    If there is a 3-way tie, you compare records within the tied teams (which would all still be tied at 1-1). Then I believe you would compare record against next best team in conference, so really depends who that is (probably Texas), then down the standings until one of OU/BU/ISU has a loss, at which point that team places third.

    1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
    2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
     
  15. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member
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    With the way Purdy was throwing the ball downfield early, it could be an amazing shootout in Norman! That would be awesome, particularly with our defense making up the difference.
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  16. theshadow

    theshadow Well-Known Member

    Apr 19, 2006
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    In that situation, the comparison down the standings wouldn't matter. With three teams at 8-1, all having beaten each other, that means they also each beat the other 7 teams in the conference. So, it would go straight to point differential.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  17. cyrocksmypants

    cyrocksmypants Well-Known Member

    Dec 29, 2008
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    I think we can win. I think Campbell has gotten us to the point where we can expect that we could win any given game. It’s just the only game left on the schedule where I’m not expecting a win. Texas started the season in that category, but I’m predicting by the time that game rolls around we’ll be favored to win.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. CentexCyclone

    CentexCyclone Well-Known Member

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    If we can get everyone healthy during the bye week, we’ll have a puncher’s chance at OU. For as bad as Texa$ defense is, they did show how to disrupt OU’s offense: get physical with Jalen Hurts. Plus, we have better defensive personnel than UT, assuming Vance and Eisworth are available.

    All three units will need to be at the top of their game, but OU is beatable.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  19. stateofmind

    stateofmind Well-Known Member

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    This shows me why I struggled in probabilities and statistics, yet loved the class. I don't understand these stats at all. I'm guessing that you are saying ISU's chances of being in the title game if we beat OU is 37.7%? But then later it looks like probability that KSU over OU is 3.2%? Because I can't see how KSU beating OU wouldn't help us more.
     
  20. StLouisClone

    StLouisClone Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2006
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    If we beat OU by only 1 point and OU beats Baylor by only 1 point, we would lose the tiebreaker. We would be minus 1 on points. OU would be even and Baylor would be plus 1.
     

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