I don’t get why about everyone has penciled in a loss at Oklahoma. I like our chances. I saw them play in September when they played South Dakota and although they’re good, they aren’t invincible. We have a bye week prior to the game as do they. I think we play with them.
Big 12 Championship Game Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
If we have beaten BU then I feel the same way but I think this team has had the B12 title in their sights since the start and knows they probably need to win out to get there.
Yep. In your 60 point scenario, Texas would be the 1st team to be eliminated via tie-breaker scenarios. Baylor would then beat us based on head to head matchup result.
So we need to beat UT by a few points as possible?
I literally don't know if I can *not* cheer for complete and total destruction.
Agree. 1. We don’t get blown out. 2. We have a really really good team. 3. They are very beatable.
there‘d be a 3 way tie for 1st with Oklahoma, B*ylor and us all with 1 loss. Would think that it would be us and Oklahoma in the title game but I have no idea.
We win out, OU beats Baylor. Three way tie for 1st. Assuming we'd probably lose a tiebreaker somehow
If we win out. Baylor only loses to OU. And OU only loses to us. I'm not sure if we're in
And we only lose to Baylor. The team with the lowest point differential in the three games between ISU, BU and OU would be eliminated.
Okay — as mentioned earlier, I was working on a variation on my original program that figures out the help/harm for ISU of every remaining Big 12 game.
It's done. Below are all the games with at least a 1 percent impact. For example...
Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)
...means that ISU would have a 24.8% chance at making the title game with an Texas win and a 12.3% chance with a Baylor win, with a difference of 12.5%.
ISU wins and Baylor losses kinda dominate the top of the list, not unexpectedly.
Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 37.7% (11.7% to 49.4%)
Iowa St. over Texas: 28.5% (3.0% to 31.5%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 15.8% (8.5% to 24.3%)
Iowa St. over Oklahoma St.: 15.1% (8.3% to 23.4%)
Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)
Iowa St. over Kansas: 12.5% (7.4% to 19.9%)
West Virginia over Baylor: 12.4% (16.2% to 28.6%)
TCU over Baylor: 12.2% (12.8% to 25.0%)
Kansas over Baylor: 11.6% (16.6% to 28.2%)
Oklahoma over Baylor: 5.0% (14.8% to 19.8%)
TCU over Oklahoma: 4.1% (18.4% to 22.5%)
Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma: 3.3% (18.3% to 21.6%)
Kansas St. over Oklahoma: 3.2% (18.6% to 21.8%)
TCU over Texas: 2.6% (17.7% to 20.3%)
Texas Tech over Texas: 1.4% (18.5% to 19.9%)
It's done. Below are all the games with at least a 1 percent impact. For example...
Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)
...means that ISU would have a 24.8% chance at making the title game with an Texas win and a 12.3% chance with a Baylor win, with a difference of 12.5%.
ISU wins and Baylor losses kinda dominate the top of the list, not unexpectedly.
Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 37.7% (11.7% to 49.4%)
Iowa St. over Texas: 28.5% (3.0% to 31.5%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 15.8% (8.5% to 24.3%)
Iowa St. over Oklahoma St.: 15.1% (8.3% to 23.4%)
Texas over Baylor: 12.5% (12.3% to 24.8%)
Iowa St. over Kansas: 12.5% (7.4% to 19.9%)
West Virginia over Baylor: 12.4% (16.2% to 28.6%)
TCU over Baylor: 12.2% (12.8% to 25.0%)
Kansas over Baylor: 11.6% (16.6% to 28.2%)
Oklahoma over Baylor: 5.0% (14.8% to 19.8%)
TCU over Oklahoma: 4.1% (18.4% to 22.5%)
Oklahoma St. over Oklahoma: 3.3% (18.3% to 21.6%)
Kansas St. over Oklahoma: 3.2% (18.6% to 21.8%)
TCU over Texas: 2.6% (17.7% to 20.3%)
Texas Tech over Texas: 1.4% (18.5% to 19.9%)
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If it gets to scoring differential, I think y=2x-2 is the formula, where x is ISU's margin over UT and y is the margin that UT can beat BU by and still allow for ISU to win the 3-way tiebreaker. The minimum ISU margin over UT would have to be 2, though.
That would leave ISU and UT tied on points, with BU out. ISU then beats UT on head to head.
So if ISU beats UT by 7, UT can beat BU by 12 and ISU still wins the tiebreaker.
If ISU beats UT by 10, the UT/BU cushion grows to 18.
....and so on.
Exactly right, except the program randomly picks a tiebreaker winner once it makes it to the points-based tiebreakers.
If there is a 3-way tie, you compare records within the tied teams (which would all still be tied at 1-1). Then I believe you would compare record against next best team in conference, so really depends who that is (probably Texas), then down the standings until one of OU/BU/ISU has a loss, at which point that team places third.
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
With the way Purdy was throwing the ball downfield early, it could be an amazing shootout in Norman! That would be awesome, particularly with our defense making up the difference.
In that situation, the comparison down the standings wouldn't matter. With three teams at 8-1, all having beaten each other, that means they also each beat the other 7 teams in the conference. So, it would go straight to point differential.
I think we can win. I think Campbell has gotten us to the point where we can expect that we could win any given game. It’s just the only game left on the schedule where I’m not expecting a win. Texas started the season in that category, but I’m predicting by the time that game rolls around we’ll be favored to win.
If we can get everyone healthy during the bye week, we’ll have a puncher’s chance at OU. For as bad as Texa$ defense is, they did show how to disrupt OU’s offense: get physical with Jalen Hurts. Plus, we have better defensive personnel than UT, assuming Vance and Eisworth are available.
All three units will need to be at the top of their game, but OU is beatable.
This shows me why I struggled in probabilities and statistics, yet loved the class. I don't understand these stats at all. I'm guessing that you are saying ISU's chances of being in the title game if we beat OU is 37.7%? But then later it looks like probability that KSU over OU is 3.2%? Because I can't see how KSU beating OU wouldn't help us more.
If we beat OU by only 1 point and OU beats Baylor by only 1 point, we would lose the tiebreaker. We would be minus 1 on points. OU would be even and Baylor would be plus 1.
