Big 12 Championship Game Projection

Discussion in 'Football' started by Dale, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    I'll post the whole bit tomorrow, but one tidbit for tonight:

    ISU's odds of making the championship game if BU wins: 1.1%
    ISU's odds of making the championship game if OU wins: 0.0%
     
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  2. every_yard

    every_yard Well-Known Member

    Aug 25, 2006
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    It’s not going to happen, but couldn’t we win a 3 way tie breaker with Baylor and Texas if Baylor would somehow lose out?

    Edit: just looked at the tiebreaker scenarios and I don’t think we’d have a chance.
     
  3. mj4cy

    mj4cy Asst. Regional Manager
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    OU would have had to lose out for us to have a shot
     
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  4. shawn_200m

    shawn_200m Active Member

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    Is this accurate? If Baylor loses out and Texas and Iowa St win out there would be a 3 way tie at 6-3. Round robin record would be tied at 1-1. Point differential would eliminate Baylor as long as Texas wins by 3 or more. We would then win head to head tie breaker with Texas. OSU would also need to lose one. What am I missing?
     
  5. KennyPratt42

    KennyPratt42 Active Member

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    In that scenario the below provision comes into play after the "mini round-robin" and before the point differential between the tied teams. We would drop out because we lost to Oklahoma St., but Baylor and Texas both beat them. In your scenario Baylor's third loss would be to Kansas who will be lower than Oklahoma St. in the standings. If TCU somehow finishes above Oklahoma St. then Texas would drop out and we lose to Baylor based on head to head.

    2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
    a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head competition before the comparison begins.
    b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective tied teams as a group will be used.
     
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  6. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Final one of the year (unless something wacky happens):

    Baylor: 96.2% (28.3% 1st, 67.9% 2nd)
    Oklahoma: 95.7% (71.7% 1st, 24.0% 2nd)
    Oklahoma St.: 4.3% (0.0% 1st, 4.3% 2nd)
    Texas: 3.8% (0.0% 1st, 3.8% 2nd)
    Everyone else: 0.0%

    Baylor/Oklahoma: 91.9%
    Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 4.3%
    Oklahoma/Texas: 3.8%
     
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  7. KennyPratt42

    KennyPratt42 Active Member

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    Thanks for doing these Dale, I really enjoy it during the course of the season.
     
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  8. browns4cy

    browns4cy Active Member

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    Just want it to be known but I said before the Baylor Oklahoma game that Baylor will lose 4 times this year. Take it for what its worth
     
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  9. mj4cy

    mj4cy Asst. Regional Manager
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    Stupid ******* baylor kicker and a 2 pt conversation away from the title game.

    With Campbell, I suspect we'll be in the mix next year again.
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
  10. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member
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    From the "it's never enough category," what are the odds of us finishing in 3rd place?
     
  11. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    54%, either alone or in a tie.
     
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  12. madguy30

    madguy30 Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget Okie State too.

    Lots of missed opportunities for a capable team.
     
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  13. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Active Member

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  14. SCNCY

    SCNCY Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, in hindsight, I am more upset about Oklahoma State than Baylor.
     
  15. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Active Member

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    How does texas still have a possibility to get in? Assuming it starts with winning their final two games and baylor losing the final 2?
     
  16. heitclone

    heitclone Well-Known Member

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    Before losing to us, UT controlled their own destiny as long as OU beat Baylor. Now they have to hope for Baylor to go 0-2.
     
  17. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Active Member

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    f*** em all
     
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