Big 12 Championship Game Projection

Discussion in 'Football' started by Dale, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. the2ndgoo

    the2ndgoo New Member

    Sep 6, 2019
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    ..... Like if it involves Texas or Oklahoma, they automatically make it.
     
  2. ISUCyclones2015

    ISUCyclones2015 Well-Known Member

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    God we could've had a decent chance with Texas and OU losing today but of course we lose too.

    So we now officially control our own destiny right? We win out, we'd be in? Where as if we won today, we could've dropped one to either OU or Texas and be in?
     
  3. inCyteful

    inCyteful Well-Known Member
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    This loss was bad enough but the opportunity missed with what else went on in the Big XII is epic.

    I just wanted to make sure everyone felt completely deflated and ******.

    Have a nice night.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. JM4CY

    JM4CY Well-Known Member

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    This thread is painful and needs to die
     
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  5. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    #105 Dale, Oct 26, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2019
    Update after today's weird set of games:

    Oklahoma: 88.8% (65.8% 1st, 23.0% 2nd)
    Baylor: 69.7% (27.3% 1st, 42.4% 2nd)
    Texas: 21.5% (2.2% 1st, 19.3% 2nd)
    Iowa St.: 12.3% (3.4% 1st, 8.9% 2nd)
    TCU: 3.4% (0.8% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
    Kansas St.: 2.8% (0.3% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
    Oklahoma St.: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
    West Virginia: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
    Kansas, Tech: Nope

    Baylor/Oklahoma: 59.2%
    Oklahoma/Texas: 18.2%
    Iowa St./Oklahoma: 7.3%
    Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.7%
    Baylor/Texas: 2.9%
    Oklahoma/TCU: 2.3%
    Kansas St./Oklahoma: 1.5%
    Baylor/Kansas St.: 1.2%
    Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 1.0%

    ISU record chances:
    5-7: 1.0%
    6-6: 14.9%
    7-5: 41.6%
    8-4: 36.1%
    9-3: 6.3%

    ISU odds of championship game at record:
    7-5: 0.2%
    8-4: 17.3%
    9-3: 95.7%

    This will change a little after Massey updates his team rankings tomorrow; probably biggest difference tomorrow is that Baylor's odds will go up even further.
     
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  6. ZB4CY

    ZB4CY Well-Known Member

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    Because I enjoy torturing myself, can you run something if Iowa State was to win this past Saturday with the other results staying the same (OU/Texas losing)?
     
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  7. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you want that kind of agony. The rest of us definitely do not.
     
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  8. Freebird

    Freebird Well-Known Member

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    thanks. One thing I don't understand. If ISU went 9-3 what scenario keeps them out of the championship game? I'm sure it's a tiebreaker somewhere I am just missing. Wouldn't we would have tiebreaker against TX, KSt, and OU in that scenario? Who am I missing?


     
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  9. Freebird

    Freebird Well-Known Member

    Apr 11, 2006
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    Ah. I think I figured it out. OSU could run the table and they would have tiebreaker over us.
     
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  10. the2ndgoo

    the2ndgoo New Member

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    If both teams ran the table, we would finish higher than OSU. We would finish 7-2 in the conference, and they'd finish 6-3.
     
  11. mdk2isu

    mdk2isu Well-Known Member

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    Some multi-team tiebreakers involving Baylor I assume?
     
  12. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Iowa State's odds would be up to 28%.
     
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  13. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Eyeballing the data, all (or almost all) of the scenarios have ISU, OU, and Baylor in a three-way tie at 7-2 that's broken by points.
     
  14. AlaCyclone

    AlaCyclone Well-Known Member

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    If both teams win out, that's what we will get. I support this plan!
     
  15. cyclones500

    cyclones500 Well-Known Member

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    I guess while we're at it, we could go the opposite way. ISU losing to OSU and the other favorites winning. Assuming that would've pretty much doomed us completely.
     
  16. ZB4CY

    ZB4CY Well-Known Member

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    Damnit, Dale!
     
  17. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Down to ~5%. Only about a 65% chance of making the championship game even with going undefeated the rest of the way.
     
  18. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

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    Games that will most affect ISU's chances of making the Big 12 Championship. In short: cheer for TCU and against Baylor.

    Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 38.8% (2.9% to 41.7%)
    Iowa St. over Texas: 15.4% (2.3% to 17.7%)
    Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 14.4% (4.0% to 18.4%)
    Iowa St. over Kansas: 7.9% (4.3% to 12.2%)
    West Virginia over Baylor: 4.5% (10.5% to 15.0%)
    Texas over Baylor: 4.4% (9.6% to 14.0%)
    Kansas over Baylor: 4.0% (10.5% to 14.5%)
    TCU over Baylor: 3.6% (9.5% to 13.1%)
    TCU over Oklahoma: 2.9% (11.1% to 14.0%)
    TCU over Oklahoma St.: 2.8% (10.3% to 13.1%)

    (Example: In the final game, ISU's chances if OSU wins are 10.3%, and ISU's chances if TCU wins are 13.1%, for a difference of 2.8%.)
     
  19. adjl

    adjl Active Member

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    Although there must be some tiebreaker scenario that has us not making the championship game if we win out. However, if we win out, we are going to the Big 12 Championship game and we can absolutely win it when we get there. Saturday was a fluke. We don't lose again this year.
     
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  20. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member
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    @Dale even though we are out of it, I would enjoy seeing your stats about the possibilities of who else might be in . . . and how Baylor could choke.
     

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