Big 12 Championship Game Projection

Discussion in 'Football' started by Dale, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. StLouisClone

    StLouisClone Well-Known Member

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    With that said, ISU really helped itself by making the final score against Baylor as close as it was!
     
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  2. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    No. ISU's chances of making the title game increase by 37.7%.
     
  3. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    This seems backwards to many people. But the logic of the tiebreak is to penalize the worst team and eliminate them. Thus (if Baylor doesn't lose by 61) ISU would be the best point differential, Baylor in the middle, and Texas the worst. The tiebreak eliminates Texas as the worst (instead of promoting ISU as the best). Then you're left with ISU and Baylor. But since this is a tiebreak for second place, the next tiebreak goes back to head-to-head, where ISU is eliminated. If this was a tiebreak for first place, then ISU would be in the title game.
     
  4. mtowncyclone13

    mtowncyclone13 Well-Known Member

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    Why would they use different tie breakers after a team is eliminated? Wouldn't it be point differential for the entire determination of 2nd place?
     
  5. VeloClone

    VeloClone Well-Known Member

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    As soon as a team is eliminated from a multi team tie the process resets and starts from scratch.
     
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  6. cyfanatic13

    cyfanatic13 Well-Known Member

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    It's literally its own entire point on the Big 12 tiebreaker procedures link that has been shared here 4,000 times

    b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
     
  7. cygrads

    cygrads Well-Known Member

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    Bye can be a *****!
     
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  8. cyfan15

    cyfan15 Active Member

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    #88 cyfan15, Oct 21, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2019
    The only ways we win out and don't get to the title game involve a three-way tie at 8-1 with Oklahoma and Baylor.

    If we win out and only beat Oklahoma by 1 point, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by at least 4 points. If we were to beat OU by 1 and OU beat BU by 1, 2, or 3 points, ISU would lose the tiebreaker and be the odd man out.

    If we win out and beat Oklahoma by exactly 2 points, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by any point total other than by exactly 2 points. All three games between the tied teams being decided by 2 point margins would result in the championship game participants being decided by a draw. If we beat Oklahoma by 2 and they beat Baylor by 1, the title game would be ISU vs Baylor. If we beat OU by 2 and they beat BU by 3 or more, the title game would be ISU vs OU.

    If ISU wins out and beats Oklahoma by at least 3 points, the Cyclones are guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 title game.
     
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  9. theshadow

    theshadow Well-Known Member

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    Nope.

    "Team *or teams*" eliminated. The point differential can determine the 3-way winner by itself.

    The only way to get back to HTH from there is if there are 2 teams tied in point differential.
     
  10. Urbandale2013

    Urbandale2013 Active Member

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    I understand how it’s done but I’ve always found it to be one of the dumbest things. If you get down to three teams tied all 1-1 against each other and you get to points I would argue you don’t have a tie of two teams you have a winner out of the three barring the same point differential. Falling back from 3 data points to 1 seems so counterintuitive.
     
  11. VeloClone

    VeloClone Well-Known Member

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    Correct. I worded it poorly. I assumed everyone knew we were talking about a 3 team tie, but it could be more teams.
     
  12. flycy

    flycy Well-Known Member

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    Um, the shade made it to the ISU sidelines and things cooled down significantly I guess you've never been on 140 degree heat. I have and you can't drink enough water to have it not effect you.
     
  13. KKramer

    KKramer Active Member

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    Let's just do that then.
     
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  14. Tony Gunk

    Tony Gunk Active Member

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    upload_2019-10-21_16-54-32.jpeg
     
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  15. mtowncyclone13

    mtowncyclone13 Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone else remember when we were happy we just wouldn't lose to bye?
     
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  16. VeloClone

    VeloClone Well-Known Member

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    But does it really affect 300 lb. linemen?

    <jimlad>
     
  17. synapticwave

    synapticwave Active Member

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    I don't think that's correct. This is the rule:

    "If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail."

    So we go through the steps until there are only 2 teams left then we go back to HTH. The 3rd step of the tie-break process is:

    "Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration"

    So, the lowest point differential team is eliminated in step 3. Then we go back to the beginning of the process and do HTH. The only way we do NOT go back to HTH is if there is a tie in point differential.
     
  18. theshadow

    theshadow Well-Known Member

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    "Or teams"
     
  19. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    Even though they didn't lose, ISU did so badly against them that they dropped out of the rankings.
     
  20. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    From the website:

    3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.​

    I would say there is room for interpretation. Equally, I would say I think your first point is correct but your second point is not. It still seems to be an elimination criteria, not a winning criteria. Thus I believe that multiple teams can indeed be eliminated if they are tied for the worst. If 2 of the teams are -10 and the other team is +4 then both of the -10 teams are eliminated and the +4 team wins. I do not think that a +4 team wins over a -1 team and a -10 team. I believe then that the -10 team is eliminated from consideration and then head-to-head immediately takes over.
    But again, it's written in a way that someone thought they were being deterministic but in reality it's still open to some interpretation.
     

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