Big 12 Championship Game Projection

Discussion in 'Football' started by Dale, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. farewayfool

    farewayfool Well-Known Member

    Oct 7, 2009
    1,207
    446
    83
    Male
    Engineer
    Muscatine, IA
    Ratings:
    +1,400 / 48 / -2
    cheatin' m'fers . . . .
     
  2. knowlesjam

    knowlesjam Well-Known Member

    Oct 21, 2012
    2,596
    607
    113
    Weather Warrior
    Papillion, NE
    Ratings:
    +2,825 / 70 / -1
    Eh, not Baylor's fault, well, unless they slipped some extra tip $'s to the ref crew. That botched false start/snap fumble was squarely on the league.
     
  3. harimad

    harimad Well-Known Member

    Jul 28, 2016
    5,380
    2,533
    113
    Female
    IT Systems Architect
    Illinois
    Ratings:
    +8,884 / 333 / -0
    FIFY
     
  4. Rogue52

    Rogue52 Well-Known Member

    Oct 20, 2006
    7,378
    287
    83
    Cedar Rapids, IA
    Ratings:
    +1,030 / 49 / -0
    How would things look had we beat Baylor? Would we be ahead of Texas? Probably can’t model as that would have had a big impact on ratings.
     
  5. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2010
    196
    292
    63
    Male
    Chicagoland
    Ratings:
    +525 / 3 / -0
    Oklahoma: 93.9% (80.6% 1st, 13.3% 2nd)
    Texas: 46.5% (5.6% 1st, 40.9% 2nd)
    Iowa St.: 45.7% (11.3% 1st, 34.5% 2nd)
    Baylor: 5.1% (1.2% 1st, 3.9% 2nd)
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member
    SuperFanatic SuperFanatic T2

    Aug 17, 2009
    20,359
    1,786
    113
    Ratings:
    +5,971 / 301 / -4

    And, dare I ask, what if Tech had beaten Baylor?

    The bottom line is that Baylor has to fall apart. And that is quite likely as they head into the tough half of their schedule.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. ZB4CY

    ZB4CY Well-Known Member

    Dec 17, 2012
    2,708
    1,269
    113
    Male
    Ratings:
    +4,468 / 207 / -2
    I think Baylor ends up with 3 conf losses. We can control our our destiny, but I don't see a win at OU this year.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  8. CyclonePower44

    CyclonePower44 New Member

    Mar 14, 2019
    4
    0
    1
    Male
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0
    This week is going to be tough. I'm nervous for this game. I think Wells is a heck of a coach and Tech is definitely improving. We need this one. I think if we get by this one, we'll take care of Ok State at home, lose to OU, beat Texas, and beat KU. Flip a coin for Farmagedon. They always play us tough. Gosh, I'd love to go to Arlington this year!
     
  9. JM4CY

    JM4CY Well-Known Member

    Aug 23, 2012
    4,332
    1,697
    113
    Working with people
    America
    Ratings:
    +8,163 / 129 / -2
    [​IMG]
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  10. CyPunch

    CyPunch Well-Known Member

    May 3, 2019
    265
    446
    63
    Male
    Sandy Springs, GA
    Ratings:
    +967 / 11 / -0
    I'll feel a lot better if we go 2-0 these next 2 weeks and Baylor picks up an L in Stillwater
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
    • Like Like x 1
  11. Dale

    Dale Well-Known Member

    Mar 5, 2010
    196
    292
    63
    Male
    Chicagoland
    Ratings:
    +525 / 3 / -0
    After this week's games:

    Oklahoma: 93.6% (75.7% 1st, 17.9% 2nd)
    Baylor: 58.8% (16.9% 1st, 41.9% 2nd)
    Texas: 27.3% (2.5% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
    Iowa St.: 18.8% (4.7% 1st, 14.1% 2nd)
    TCU: 1.0% (0.1% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
    Kansas St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
    Oklahoma St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
    Kansas, TT, WV: nope

    Most likely title games:
    Baylor/Oklahoma: 53.0%
    Oklahoma/Texas: 24.8%
    Iowa St./Oklahoma: 14.8%
    Baylor/Iowa St.: 3.5%
    Baylor/Texas: 2.1%

    ISU record chances:
    5-7: 0.3%
    6-6: 5.2%
    7-5: 22.8%
    8-4: 40.0%
    9-3: 27.1%
    10-2: 4.4%

    ISU odds of championship game at record:
    7-5: 0.1%
    8-4: 5.6%
    9-3: 44.8%
    10-2: 97.7%

    I'm making a variation of my program that tells you what the most important games left are for ISU — both games ISU is playing and others. We'll see if I can get it running before this Saturday.
     
    • Like Like x 7
    • Informative Informative x 2
  12. harimad

    harimad Well-Known Member

    Jul 28, 2016
    5,380
    2,533
    113
    Female
    IT Systems Architect
    Illinois
    Ratings:
    +8,884 / 333 / -0
    Thanks for running this. Without being a computer, it seems to me that we have to win them all. But if we lose one, it absolutely cannot be to Texas.

    Even if we lose one to Oklahoma and run the table otherwise, we still need Baylor to lose twice, possibly three times.
     
  13. clonedude

    clonedude Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2006
    17,931
    1,765
    113
    Male
    Ratings:
    +10,883 / 1,114 / -56
    I'd say we can probably only afford a loss to OU the rest of the way, and then need help from Baylor in losing some games, because I don't see OU not finishing 1st.
     
  14. Acylum

    Acylum Well-Known Member
    SuperFanatic SuperFanatic T2

    Nov 18, 2006
    5,905
    759
    113
    Male
    Ratings:
    +4,842 / 154 / -1
    I'm surprised at the disparity in the chances of finishing 8-4 vs 9-3.
     
  15. Cyched

    Cyched Well-Known Member

    May 8, 2009
    13,053
    4,091
    113
    Ankeny
    Ratings:
    +18,878 / 302 / -0
    Texas is a must win at this point (insert Captain Obvious gif) assuming we don't win in Norman.

    Need Baylor to lose to both OU and Texas and drop one they don't expect. They've got WV at home, @ TCU, @ Kansas. Get it done Patterson!
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. Cyched

    Cyched Well-Known Member

    May 8, 2009
    13,053
    4,091
    113
    Ankeny
    Ratings:
    +18,878 / 302 / -0
    With the way Baylor has been playing, our chances would be shot if we drop 2 more.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. cstrunk

    cstrunk Well-Known Member

    Mar 21, 2006
    12,361
    652
    113
    Highway Design Engineer
    Longview, TX
    Ratings:
    +1,787 / 93 / -3
    Basically, other than winning out, we're going to need some help to make it.

    Last week's BU-Tech blunder and KU with the prevent a win defense at the end of the Texas game were both HUGE in keeping us out of the mix.
     
  18. IASTATE07

    IASTATE07 Well-Known Member
    SuperFanatic SuperFanatic T2

    May 30, 2016
    7,448
    1,456
    113
    Ratings:
    +11,238 / 415 / -5
    Depending on the tie breakers it's wait and see on if the Texas win hurts or helps us.
     
  19. farminclone

    farminclone Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2009
    5,279
    826
    113
    Ratings:
    +4,550 / 227 / -17
    Baylor losing 3 games (OU, TEX, and a slip up somewhere else) is pretty conceivable. Baylor losing 4 is a long shot.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. clonedude

    clonedude Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2006
    17,931
    1,765
    113
    Male
    Ratings:
    +10,883 / 1,114 / -56
    It's looking more and more like that debacle in Waco in 140 degree heat with no tents is going to haunt us all year.
     
    • Agree Agree x 12

Share This Page