I’m trying to figure out what messed up scenario has us winning out but NOT making title game.
The only ways we win out and don't get to the title game involve a three-way tie at 8-1 with Oklahoma and Baylor.
If we win out and only beat Oklahoma by 1 point, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by at least 4 points. If we were to beat OU by 1 and OU beat BU by 1, 2, or 3 points, ISU would lose the tiebreaker and be the odd man out.
If we win out and beat Oklahoma by exactly 2 points, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by any point total other than by exactly 2 points. All three games between the tied teams being decided by 2 point margins would result in the championship game participants being decided by a draw. If we beat Oklahoma by 2 and they beat Baylor by 1, the title game would be ISU vs Baylor. If we beat OU by 2 and they beat BU by 3 or more, the title game would be ISU vs OU.
If ISU wins out and beats Oklahoma by at least 3 points, the Cyclones are guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 title game.