Big 12 Championship Game Projection

TedKumsher

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This shows me why I struggled in probabilities and statistics, yet loved the class. I don't understand these stats at all. I'm guessing that you are saying ISU's chances of being in the title game if we beat OU is 37.7%? But then later it looks like probability that KSU over OU is 3.2%? Because I can't see how KSU beating OU wouldn't help us more.
No. ISU's chances of making the title game increase by 37.7%.
 

TedKumsher

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What?

If we beat Texas by 60 points you're saying Baylor needs to lose to Texas by 61 points? If that's the case we'd want to only beat Texas by 1 point.
This seems backwards to many people. But the logic of the tiebreak is to penalize the worst team and eliminate them. Thus (if Baylor doesn't lose by 61) ISU would be the best point differential, Baylor in the middle, and Texas the worst. The tiebreak eliminates Texas as the worst (instead of promoting ISU as the best). Then you're left with ISU and Baylor. But since this is a tiebreak for second place, the next tiebreak goes back to head-to-head, where ISU is eliminated. If this was a tiebreak for first place, then ISU would be in the title game.
 

SoapyCy

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This seems backwards to many people. But the logic of the tiebreak is to penalize the worst team and eliminate them. Thus (if Baylor doesn't lose by 61) ISU would be the best point differential, Baylor in the middle, and Texas the worst. The tiebreak eliminates Texas as the worst (instead of promoting ISU as the best). Then you're left with ISU and Baylor. But since this is a tiebreak for second place, the next tiebreak goes back to head-to-head, where ISU is eliminated. If this was a tiebreak for first place, then ISU would be in the title game.

Why would they use different tie breakers after a team is eliminated? Wouldn't it be point differential for the entire determination of 2nd place?
 

cyfanatic13

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Why would they use different tie breakers after a team is eliminated? Wouldn't it be point differential for the entire determination of 2nd place?
It's literally its own entire point on the Big 12 tiebreaker procedures link that has been shared here 4,000 times

b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
 

cyfan15

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I’m trying to figure out what messed up scenario has us winning out but NOT making title game.

The only ways we win out and don't get to the title game involve a three-way tie at 8-1 with Oklahoma and Baylor.

If we win out and only beat Oklahoma by 1 point, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by at least 4 points. If we were to beat OU by 1 and OU beat BU by 1, 2, or 3 points, ISU would lose the tiebreaker and be the odd man out.

If we win out and beat Oklahoma by exactly 2 points, we need Oklahoma to either lose to Baylor or beat Baylor by any point total other than by exactly 2 points. All three games between the tied teams being decided by 2 point margins would result in the championship game participants being decided by a draw. If we beat Oklahoma by 2 and they beat Baylor by 1, the title game would be ISU vs Baylor. If we beat OU by 2 and they beat BU by 3 or more, the title game would be ISU vs OU.

If ISU wins out and beats Oklahoma by at least 3 points, the Cyclones are guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 title game.
 
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theshadow

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As soon as a team is eliminated from a multi team tie the process resets and starts from scratch.

Nope.

"Team *or teams*" eliminated. The point differential can determine the 3-way winner by itself.

The only way to get back to HTH from there is if there are 2 teams tied in point differential.
 

Urbandale2013

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It's literally its own entire point on the Big 12 tiebreaker procedures link that has been shared here 4,000 times

b. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
I understand how it’s done but I’ve always found it to be one of the dumbest things. If you get down to three teams tied all 1-1 against each other and you get to points I would argue you don’t have a tie of two teams you have a winner out of the three barring the same point differential. Falling back from 3 data points to 1 seems so counterintuitive.
 

VeloClone

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Nope.

"Team *or teams*" eliminated. The point differential can determine the 3-way winner by itself.

The only way to get back to HTH from there is if there are 2 teams tied in point differential.
Correct. I worded it poorly. I assumed everyone knew we were talking about a 3 team tie, but it could be more teams.
 

flycy

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I’m really not a fan of that excuse. Why did our offense wake up in the 4th quarter when the heat was at it’s worst and we had spent the previous 2 and a half hours in that heat? It just didn’t seem like the team was ready to play in their first true road game of the season.
Um, the shade made it to the ISU sidelines and things cooled down significantly I guess you've never been on 140 degree heat. I have and you can't drink enough water to have it not effect you.
 

synapticwave

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Nope.

"Team *or teams*" eliminated. The point differential can determine the 3-way winner by itself.

The only way to get back to HTH from there is if there are 2 teams tied in point differential.

I don't think that's correct. This is the rule:

"If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail."

So we go through the steps until there are only 2 teams left then we go back to HTH. The 3rd step of the tie-break process is:

"Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration"

So, the lowest point differential team is eliminated in step 3. Then we go back to the beginning of the process and do HTH. The only way we do NOT go back to HTH is if there is a tie in point differential.
 

TedKumsher

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Nope.

"Team *or teams*" eliminated. The point differential can determine the 3-way winner by itself.

The only way to get back to HTH from there is if there are 2 teams tied in point differential.
From the website:

3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.​

I would say there is room for interpretation. Equally, I would say I think your first point is correct but your second point is not. It still seems to be an elimination criteria, not a winning criteria. Thus I believe that multiple teams can indeed be eliminated if they are tied for the worst. If 2 of the teams are -10 and the other team is +4 then both of the -10 teams are eliminated and the +4 team wins. I do not think that a +4 team wins over a -1 team and a -10 team. I believe then that the -10 team is eliminated from consideration and then head-to-head immediately takes over.
But again, it's written in a way that someone thought they were being deterministic but in reality it's still open to some interpretation.