MONDAY MUSINGS: Let's talk realistic expectations for next year

ajk4st8

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Mar 27, 2006
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"realistic expectations" - no two words typically generate more discussion in cyclone sports!

I'd say MBB success comes down to 5 things:
1. Babb's health
2. LW's ability to improve/play as a PG
3. Can Jacobson make 3's?
4. Can we dramatically improve team defense?
5. Will players accept the available minutes.

The good tourney teams play great team D, have multiple athletic guards, and have a big guy that can shoot.

Not sure "Can Jacobson make threes?" Is in my top 50 things of concern for next year, let alone top 5.
 

CyCloned

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Oct 18, 2006
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My expectations 7-5 with a + or - 1:

Football

Wins
SDSU
Akron
West Virginia
Texas Tech
@ Kansas
Baylor
K State

Losses
@ Iowa
Oklahoma
@ TCU
@ Okie State
@ Texas

Guess I don't understand why everyone is so sure ISU can't beat Iowa this year. Do they have that many guys back? Don't they have to replace all 3 LBers and their best DB?
 
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TheJackWePack5

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Oct 2, 2011
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Guess I don't understand why everyone is so sure ISU can't beat Iowa this year. Do they have that many guys back? Don't they have to replace all 3 LBers and their best DB?
I don't think they'll be unbeatable by any means, but they'll be fairly stout up front which will help the new guys.
 

CyTwins

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Jan 20, 2010
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Guess I don't understand why everyone is so sure ISU can't beat Iowa this year. Do they have that many guys back? Don't they have to replace all 3 LBers and their best DB?

Because of how much emphasis they put on the game. We know we'll get their best shot
 

Cycsk

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Would our hopes be as high for this year if we had not over-achieved so much last year in football? I'm concerned that we are still another year or so away from the full effect of "the process."
 

FinalFourCy

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Mar 5, 2017
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Would our hopes be as high for this year if we had not over-achieved so much last year in football? I'm concerned that we are still another year or so away from the full effect of "the process."
Did we overachieve last year?
 

FinalFourCy

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Mar 5, 2017
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I don't remember very many people predicting us to win 8 games, including OU and TCU.
Is the true value of the team preseason predictions?

You think last year’s squad was really a 4-win team, despite being in every game and losing more close games than they won?
 

Cycsk

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Is the true value of the team preseason predictions?

You think last year’s squad was really a 4-win team, despite being in every game and losing more close games than they won?


OK. I'll play along.

How many wins did you think we would have last year? 8? I doubt it. I didn't, except in my most optimistic, kool-aid-drinking prediction.

Now, don't you think that us winning more last year than you thought probably leads you to a higher expectation for wins this year? It has for me. And I'm finding that I may need to tap the brakes lest my optimism gets the best of me.
 

FinalFourCy

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OK. I'll play along.

How many wins did you think we would have last year? 8? I doubt it. I didn't, except in my most optimistic, kool-aid-drinking prediction.

Now, don't you think that us winning more last year than you thought probably leads you to a higher expectation for wins this year? It has for me. And I'm finding that I may need to tap the brakes lest my optimism gets the best of me.
Expectations prior to the season of what the quality of the team would be isn’t analogous to what the actual quality was. It’s not a great metric to use in regards to whether the following year is susceptible to a bounce back.

Was last year ahead of schedule? Sure. It out-performed forecasts based on limited data. But we don’t need to rely on those forecasts to gauge once the season has completed.

I agree it would be silly to think that because we beat the forecasts by 3 or 4 games last year we’ll beat the forecasts by the same amount.
 

Sigmapolis

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Aug 10, 2011
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Expectations prior to the season of what the quality of the team would be isn’t analogous to what the actual quality was. It’s not a great metric to use in regards to whether the following year is susceptible to a bounce back.

Was last year ahead of schedule? Sure. It out-performed forecasts based on limited data. But we don’t need to rely on those forecasts to gauge once the season has completed.

I agree it would be silly to think that because we beat the forecasts by 3 or 4 games last year we’ll beat the forecasts by the same amount.

I was hoping for 6-6 last year and got it (and then some).

Yes, these were inconsistencies, and games like Iowa, Kansas State, and West Virginia were ours for the taking, but then again, we pulled two massive upsets.

I would be happy with Campbell and the program if we won roughly the same amount of games, even if that is just winning all of the "should" games this time even if we do not manage to bring down a couple of Top 25 teams in the process.

Our roster is going to be deeper next year, but we are losing some of the old Rhoads guys who were proven veterans and some of the best in the conference at their respective positions (Lazard, Lanning, Cotton-Moya, Campos, etc.). That is not even talking about the kind of men and leaders those guys were. They are going to be missed.

I want to see a program that is consistently bowl eligible before I get greedy.
 

hoosman

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Sep 4, 2006
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We will have depth in football, so we will not do the annual November nosedive caused by injuries. We should be at 6-7 wins at the end of the year. Lazard was about 33% of our 3rd down conversions last year. With an Oline, Montgomery will take over that role. In basketball, we will also have depth. Our defense and fast breaks will be better and we’ll maybe rotate 9 players to reduce the workload and add diversity. We should be a 9 seed or better at the dance.
 

cyclones500

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Jan 29, 2010
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Beyond W-L last season, the team looked like a more complete unit, at least from OU game onward, even if it's not easy to define eye-test. More of an identity on offense, defense could hold its own throughout the entirety of most games. Even simple things like offense being able to convert short-yardage for first downs, and defense being able to quell drives and get off the field more consistently, all of that was more frequent than we'd seen for most of the past 10-plus seasons.

There were enough close games that record could've ranged from 6-7 to 10-3 (or even more extreme at either end, in worst-case/best-case), ISU split the difference. Obviously refreshing and inspires hope for equal/better, especially following 3-9 3-9, 2-10, 3-9 stretch.

Maybe it'll go about the same in 2018, it'd be a letdown to drop back to something like 6-7, but it's possible. It may be asking too much to "expect" to win 9 or 10.
 

yowza

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Jun 2, 2016
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Guess I don't understand why everyone is so sure ISU can't beat Iowa this year. Do they have that many guys back? Don't they have to replace all 3 LBers and their best DB?

Yeah the Clones could win that game at Iowa, that is why I put the +1 or -1 to the 7 - 5 record. Throw most everything out the window when the two teams play. ISU d line will be a strength which means Iowa will need to loosen them up a bit with play action and general passing game. Iowa's D line should also be a strength. I simply tipped to Iowa because it is at Kinnick and probably will be slated for a late start ending under the lights. Crowds tend to be better than for 11am games.