I have little doubt there are handfuls of people that make mistakes in the professional world, especially at the lower levels. For example, people like you comparing your 9-to5 to elite head coaches.Yes it does. It's not the biggest factor, but it's there (and not just RW, others). Almost all decent professional jobs in this country have a salary that has a lot of factors that goes into it - one of them being what other people in a similar situation as yours makes at a variety of different companies. How the company chooses to interpret that differs. Some offer right on the average while others offer above the average.
Your past accomplishments and expertise definitely play a role into it, especially ones in the last handful of years. If you don't think this, then you don't have enough experience in the professional world in how salaries are actually figured out. I speak from experience on this. Thinking that prior success, even for coaching sports, has no influence on salary is extremely ignorant and naive IMO. Obviously there's outliers, but on average it follows this trend for many types of jobs.
The sample size may be low, but you better bet your *** that someone especially who is trying to save just a little bit of money is thinking "Well ____ and ____ have been to the Elite Eight five times each and you haven't once, so we're going to offer you less." It's common in the professional world and I have first hand experience with helping deciding these things just to save maybe $15K/year.
It's not the only factor that goes into figuring out salaries - there's many - but it is one factor of the handful. I speak from experience and I have no doubts that it's one of the factors for coaching too. The trend setters are the ones who win championships and the schools will just offer them much more. Hopefully someday we can say Hoiberg is a trend setter and it would be awesome if that was at the end of this season. I think he will get a raise this year, but not to the $3 million mark yet.
No one is paying as a reward for what they have done. You are falling victim of cause vs correlation. At that level salaries are about demand. People with accomplishments are paid more because of the increase in demand that comes with the belief that those accomplishments reduce the uncertainty of future performance. Having more past accomplishments are neither a requisite nor sufficient in determine one's market value in regards to another. In the case of coaches, and athletes more so, demand and pay are based on what that person is to believed to be able to do, not what they have done.