Big 12 is a P5 Conference. AAC is not. Big 12 has automatic qualifier as a P5 Conference. We leave the junk teams of the AAC and only take their best 3 teams. That leaves the AAC with the worthless teams. AAC has nothing much worth robbing and the better teams are gone. Mortally wounded. Who do they poach now? And what is their Revenue going forward?
Big XII to add schools within days?
- Thread starter ILikeBacon
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Big 12 is a P5 Conference. AAC is not. Big 12 has automatic qualifier as a P5 Conference. We leave the junk teams of the AAC and only take their best 3 teams. That leaves the AAC with the worthless teams. AAC has nothing much worth robbing and the better teams are gone. Mortally wounded. Who do they poach now? And what is their Revenue going forward?
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
I see that it's a conference that doesn't exactly have a lot of name value to attract a big money deal.
Maybe it's better than that. I'm not fer it or agin it. Probably just the best deal we can get, and we'll see where that goes.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
No 25M is not much of a hit on the current deal(approx. 3 M). 25M is just the T1 & T2, we still have T3(which won't be worth much now probably unless we can monetize bball better) and then the CCG, CFP/bowl $$ and NCAA Bball credits. We currently get upper 30's for everything.
It is a hit in terms of what the B12 would have received staying at 10 if UT/OU remained in the league. To illustrate this, we were getting 28M and Bowlsby said the league lost 50% of its value, that would be 14M. If the new deal is roughly a 78% increase without OU & UT, the new deal should have been around 28(1.78) for about 50M for T1 & T2. Some say the B12 was overpaid when they secured the contract with only 10 teams instead of 12, its possible that 50 could have been more like 45 to upper 40's but you get the idea.
This illustrates OU & UT revenues could have remained solid with 50M T1/T2 and then add in T3 & CFP/bowl/NCAA bball money. As well as the B12 would have went to unequal revenue sharing to keep them. Those two schools won't have as good of a competitive position in the SEC so it tells you one of two thing. This is how much they were concerned about NIL $$ and recruiting and wanted big time matchups, but this could lead to 3-4 loss seasons for OU and even more for UT. Or this is part of ESPN avoiding lawsuits and Bowlsby did have good evidence of interference.
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The SEC announced their 2024 TV contract in 2020. These sort of things are negotiated pretty far in advance. To the point that the Big12 would be in negotiations for the 2025 contract now. So I'd assume they'd have a pretty solid understanding of what's available in different scenarios. I also wouldn't expect the 4 schools applying for membership to formally join until those negotiations are complete so they know what they're getting in the move. And there's certainly no way that OuT can leave early without that contract in place for determining if there are damages to the league by their early departure.
People get confused talking about money (I do too) because TV money and conference distribution are not the same thing. The Big 12 has distributed high-30 millions in the last few years, which includes Tier 1 and 2 media rights, but it also includes other stuff. TV revenue from ESPN and FOX alone is about $25MM per school now.
Without a settlement or any change in the landscape, that second number drops to about $12MM with the conference composition change. The remaining $13MM or so in per-school distribution (that had gotten us around $38MM overall) would also be affected if we got fewer March Madness bids, CFP bids, other stuff. If that part goes down to $8MM, now we’re sitting at $20MM per school without a settlement.
If we get ESPN to sign a deal to 2036 (targeted to the ACC GOR), thats an 11 year extension. OU/UT leaving early would cost at least a few hundred million. Let’s say ESPN believes it can make money by doing that by adding another $25MM per year for the life of the deal to settle that out. That’s another $2MM per school; now we’re at $22MM.
If the four newbies are added on half shares and take home $11MM for at least five years (or longer), our share would be $27.5MM. The last piece of this puzzle is replacing FOX with someone like Amazon who can pay more for the extra value that streaming and delivering targeted ads would bring. Can they find another few million per school there? We could get the eight original members to about $30MM that way. The Pac-12 and ACC are in the low 30s; we would be a true peer of them.
Without a settlement or any change in the landscape, that second number drops to about $12MM with the conference composition change. The remaining $13MM or so in per-school distribution (that had gotten us around $38MM overall) would also be affected if we got fewer March Madness bids, CFP bids, other stuff. If that part goes down to $8MM, now we’re sitting at $20MM per school without a settlement.
If we get ESPN to sign a deal to 2036 (targeted to the ACC GOR), thats an 11 year extension. OU/UT leaving early would cost at least a few hundred million. Let’s say ESPN believes it can make money by doing that by adding another $25MM per year for the life of the deal to settle that out. That’s another $2MM per school; now we’re at $22MM.
If the four newbies are added on half shares and take home $11MM for at least five years (or longer), our share would be $27.5MM. The last piece of this puzzle is replacing FOX with someone like Amazon who can pay more for the extra value that streaming and delivering targeted ads would bring. Can they find another few million per school there? We could get the eight original members to about $30MM that way. The Pac-12 and ACC are in the low 30s; we would be a true peer of them.
LOL. Such a tool. Doesn’t understand Big 12 is not the AAC. Even without OuT. AAC has no name brand at all.
Your comparing all revenues which puts ISU in upper 30's versus just the T1/T2 money. Its only about 3M less than current but is a lot less than the league would have got on T1/T2 if OU/UT stayed. You are correct the B12 getting the same upper 30's/even low 40's in the next tv deal WITH EVERYTHING won't seem so great compared to the SEC & B1G.
Its also why I think the ACC may see change with this next tv deal for the B1G. I don't know what the cost will be with a GOR's in play to 2036 but FSU/Clemson/NC/Va and a few others are not going to stick with the crappy tv deal until 2035/36. That may be 600M I saw someone comment over 15 years. I think the GOR's gets challenged/negotiated. This maybe some of the movement in the B12. Either B12 adding ACC remnants or the ACC backfilling with B12 schools.
While I can enjoy the new B12 and look forward to the games both football and bball. I think CFB is in a bad place. This disproportionate revenue is bad for the sport overall. Hopefully after 10-12 yrs of OU/UT having 4-5 losses and losing brand status maybe the sport decides to have one conference like the NFL and negotiate the tv deal as one. These brands will not continue as top brands with a lot more losses than they are use to.
No it’s a $3M hit. The $35M is from all sources. We get $28M from Tier 1 and 2.
Also, not that this is a critical point, but Pollard did seem genuinely excited about what is going on with the Big 12. He could be blowing smoke or hiding anxiety, but it didn't seem like it in his interview (on Monday I think). My guess is that a roadmap is in place with the conference and TV partners to keep remaining Big 8 schools (and to a lesser extent the additions) whole in their distributions. Call me too optimistic, but I choose to believe that. Now, would I rather get the BIG invite? For sure, but recent developments don't seem to be 'sky is falling' type stuff.
Exactly. ESPN is almost certainly going to give the new Big 12 a decent contract to extract themselves, OU, UT and the SEC from the current situation.
the big12 got no respect with texas and ou in it...... adding UCF and houston? byu? cinnci? lol
Much better option adding those 3 teams than joining those teams left in the AAC. AAC has nothing left.
When was the last Big 12 Title won by Texas?
You know how OuT were allegedly 50% of the Big12 contract value? Well, Cincy and UCF are probably 40% of the value of the AAC. So you are taking the best pieces of a worse conference.
Think of it as the inverse of the old "move the bottom 2 tiers of counties in Iowa to Mizzou, and you improve the IQ of both states by 20 points".
Yep. Let’s put it this way, we absolutely shouldn’t settle for much less than being made whole.
We’ll be fine either way. I do think there’s a chance we’re in a more competitive conference but without anyone viewing it that way….completely ignoring results on the field. There’s a long term future though, grabbing these schools with large student bodies in big markets. UCF will very soon be equitable to FSU locally
The PAC doesn't get any respect either. Should they be considered a G5 level league?
SC Oregon Washington always get respect. They also get the benefit of the doubt every pre season
There are no teams in the remaining big aac that will get that.
Both are favorable outcomes for ISU. We’ll be in a P3 it’s just a matter of which one.
Unless streaming changes things quickly, or the SEC leaves, I don’t see how we don’t end up with a P3 with the third being a catch all for those not invited to the P2 but wanting to still compete at the highest level