That is their interpretation of the probabilities assuming that the committee uses quantitative results to see the playoff - before the committee changes the rules in order to get the playoff that they want.
Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
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That is their interpretation of the probabilities assuming that the committee uses quantitative results to see the playoff - before the committee changes the rules in order to get the playoff that they want.
The first thing I noticed about the first playoff poll was that Auburn snuck in right in front of us. That's not idly done. That's prepositioning.
It's almost like everyone has forgotten about Ohio State over TCU and Baylor just a few short years ago...
If auburn wins out, they'll need to beat Georgia and Alabama both plus Georgia again in their title game - 3 top ten wins to our 4 (if we win out)...
They will get in ahead of us with a lesser resume.
I can't wait until the Big 10 or SEC if let out of the playoffs, the cries for an 8 team will magnify by 50.
52% is based on the assumption that no other games would have an outcome with weekend and moving forward.
What would help us is WV sneaking back into the top 25 but not knocking down the others too much. A win at Texas and OU would help them, but would it be a net loss for us if OU dips? Probably. Not sure there is enough to get WVU ranked and not really hurt us. (Assuming we win out)52% if we win out isn't correct.
That is going off the assumption that no other games take place this weekend.
WVU's remaining schedule
Sat, Nov 4
Sat, Nov 11
Sat, Nov 18
Sat, Nov 25
Not all of these teams in front of ISU are running the table. Many of them even have at least one if not two games against each other. An 11-2 ISU team may be on the outside looking in when it comes to CFP but it certainly isn't out of the question they get in.
If they beat Texas it would help out a ton in making our loss to Texas not so bad and appear fluky...especially (or as CMC says, expeciallyWhat would help us is WV sneaking back into the top 25 but not knocking down the others too much. A win at Texas and OU would help them, but would it be a net loss for us if OU dips? Probably. Not sure there is enough to get WVU ranked and not really hurt us. (Assuming we win out)
WVU's remaining schedule
Sat, Nov 4Iowa State
Sat, Nov 11Kansas State
Sat, Nov 18Texas
Sat, Nov 25Oklahoma
) if WVU beats them by a considerable margin. This is all if (hopefully when) we beat WVU Saturday.
52% is based on the assumption that no other games would have an outcome with weekend and moving forward.
2 top 5 non-fluke wins, playing in a Big 12 championship game is a legit possibility, and yet we're only sitting at a 52% chance of beating Bill Snyder?
Seems about right. Damn you Snyder!
What would be nice is to pummel KSU by 28+ in Snyder's last game ever. Plant a flag!
If they beat Texas it would help out a ton in making our loss to Texas not so bad and appear fluky...especially (or as CMC says, expecially
Hmmm, i think Texas finishing strong with 3 more wins but still losing to TCU is what we want for resume sake. Provided Isu beats Wvu.
Iowa winning thier 2 toss up games and at least putting up a fight vs OSU/UW. If both UT and Iowa were 7-5 then they aren't horrible losses.
What would help us is WV sneaking back into the top 25 but not knocking down the others too much. A win at Texas and OU would help them, but would it be a net loss for us if OU dips? Probably. Not sure there is enough to get WVU ranked and not really hurt us. (Assuming we win out)
WVU's remaining schedule
Sat, Nov 4Iowa State
Sat, Nov 11Kansas State
Sat, Nov 18Texas
Sat, Nov 25Oklahoma
Based on the logic of ranking Auburn ahead of us with "good losses", we want Iowa and Texas to win out to give us the best chance of making the playoffs. If ISU could win out and Texas and Iowa could sneak into the AP top 25, we would have a very strong case.
I've been looking at this, as "IF" we win out and say got to the CCG against a OK that also wins out.
If we win that game and a certain amount of chaos happens we might sneak into the Playoff, but most likely both OK and us get a New Years 6 bowl.
If we lose that game, OK has a good chance of making it into the Playoff, and we still have a decent chance at a New Years 6 bowl.
Basically though unfortunately we need Iowa to win out to help our quality loss situation as well as knock Ohio St and WI down and Texas to do the same or at least every one except TCU.
If we win that game and a certain amount of chaos happens we might sneak into the Playoff, but most likely both OK and us get a New Years 6 bowl.
If we lose that game, OK has a good chance of making it into the Playoff, and we still have a decent chance at a New Years 6 bowl.
Basically though unfortunately we need Iowa to win out to help our quality loss situation as well as knock Ohio St and WI down and Texas to do the same or at least every one except TCU.
Noticed the samething. In my opinion, auburn's ranking it is about getting UGA, Alabama, (and to a lesser extent Clemson) the ability to say "we beat a ranked team". Anyone that loses to iowa and texas will need a lot of help to get to the playoff. If your ISU, even if you get all the help, they will come up with a reason like the "eye test" to say you don't deserve to be there. Kirk Herbstreit was already trying to explain why OSU beating up on cup cakes and winning by 1 against PSU makes them a better team than OU, who beat the buckeyes head to head. Bottom line, if you are not a name brand, or if you are not from the big10/sec, they will look for reasons to leave you out. OU goes 12-1 I think they are in. Anyone else (including TCU) wins the Big 12 at 12-1, I think they will be on the outside looking in... obviously all depends on what else happens though. Just glad ISU has something to be excited about in football. Who know's? If Campbell sticks around, we may be a realistic playoff contender one day.
This might be the dumbest thing I've read today.
If ISU wins out, they have a MUCH better than 5% chance of making the playoff. Hell, I'll even go as far as GUARANTEEING a playoff berth if ISU wins out.
If ISU wins out, I pledge to personally throw a CF party with booze & food provided.
Possible maybe... but extremely unlikely. If they can come up with a reason to leave ISU out they will... two losses to iowa and texas make it really easy to look past them. But here is a scenario for you:
Pac12: Stanford only loses to ND, Stanford beats USC in Conf title game (P12 Eliminated, with 3 loss Stanford team)
ACC: NC State beats Clemson, Miami loses to ND & VT, NC State defeats VT in ACC title game (ACC eliminated with 3 loss NCSU, maybe)
SEC: UGA loses twice in the regular season (I think they will need 3 losses to move them behind ISU), let's say Auburn and GT (just pick two), then undefeated Alabama destroys them in SEC title (Alabama is in, UGA is out)
Big 10: Wisconsin loses a game prior to the title, OSU beats Wisconsin in the title game, and PSU loses to MSU or someone else (OSU in, 2 loss Wisconsin out)
ND: Wins out giving Miami and Stanford losses along the way (ND in)
So, now you have ND, Alabama, and OSU in the playoff. One spot left for a B12 champ... maybe even a 2 loss ISU (no chance for a 3 loss B12 champ). Then, given the unlikely scenario above, ISU would be compared to B10: 2 Loss PSU, 2 Loss Wisconsin, PAC12: 3 Loss USC or Stanford, ACC: 2 Loss Clemson, VT, and Miami, and 3 Loss NC State, SEC: 3 Loss UGA, and potentially UCF if undefeated.
Do they get in? Not sure, the committee clearly loves clemson. Even if they lose to NC State this weekend do they drop behind ISU? If ISU wins out, would they pass them? What about PSU? I think UGA would need 3 losses, if not, they would likely put a 2 loss SEC title game loser in before ISU. I think PSU needs to lose another game as well. A one loss PSU would also likely knock ISU out. Net, ISU needs a lot of help that is very unlikely. If it does happen, the committee could still leave them on the sideline. If you are ISU, you need to go 13-0 and hope that you are one of only 4 undefeated teams. If not, it is really hard to get in. See Baylor/TCU (2014), OSU (2011)...
I would take another ISU - TCU matchup all day long. Even in Dallas, ISU would have way more fans than TCU.
I want no part of OU again though
I want no part of OU again though
