Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[TykeClone]

I was actually going to ask, if we win out and win the Big12 champ game, would we even get into the playoff with 2 losses? (Obviously this is an extremely tough task, but just curious to what everyone thought)

Objectively we'd be 11-2 during a "down" year for the Big IIXII (definition of a down year: Texas or Oklahoma didn't win the conference) and have a terrible loss to a weak team in Iowa.

But the committee isn't objective so there is no chance that we'd get in with 2 losses. Or 1 loss. It would be touch and go if we were undefeated.

 

[xr4ticlone]

I was forced to watch OSU/UT being on a cruise boat with limited tv.

We should have beat UT : (

OSU is hurt & very beatable IMHO. Their O line is torn up pretty good, if they stay hurt until our game I love our chances.

TCU would be a huge W for us. OU didn’t expect anything from ISU. TCU has to be worried headed into Ames Saturday. We’ll get their best effort.

8 wins or more is unreal for ISU football.

 

[Omaha Cy]

ISU making the BCS would probably end up being the demise of the BCS.

ISU already slayed that giant in 2011, but if it came back from the dead, then yes, ISU would have to defeat it again.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I just want this game to be clean and come out injury free. Win is a bonus but not expected. Lots of season left. Keep building.

 

[CascadeClone]

I was actually going to ask, if we win out and win the Big12 champ game, would we even get into the playoff with 2 losses? (Obviously this is an extremely tough task, but just curious to what everyone thought)

Only if they get OHIO and IOWA confused.

 

[DurangoCy]

I’ve done something similar to this the past couple years in basketball, but never before in football because, frankly, it’s less interesting when your team’s on its way to a 3-9 season.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

TCU: 82.5% (60.4% 1st, 22.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 44.6% (20.5% 1st, 24.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 39.1% (9.4% 1st, 29.7% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 21.5% (7.6% 1st, 14.0% 2nd)
West Virginia: 7.4% (1.1% 1st, 6.3% 2nd)
Texas: 4.7% (1.1% 1st, 3.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor and Kansas: zippo

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/TCU: 32.0%
Oklahoma St./TCU: 29.2%
Iowa St./TCU: 13.6%
TCU/West Virginia: 6.0%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 5.8%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 4.4%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 2.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 1.6%
TCU/Texas: 1.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.0%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.2% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

Obviously, the Iowa State/TCU game has large ramifications for both teams, but I wanted to see how much. The Championship Game odds if Iowa State wins (ignoring the other games that week):

Iowa St.: 43.7% (22.9% 1st, 20.7% 2nd)
TCU: 60.4% (35.0% 1st, 25.4% 2nd)

And the odds if TCU is the victor:

Iowa St.: 11.2% (0.3% 1st, 10.9% 2nd)
TCU: 93.2% (72.8% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record:

5-7: 1.0%
6-6: 10.9%
7-5: 30.5%
8-4: 35.9%
9-3: 18.3%
10-2: 3.3%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do after I spent the couple hours writing the program.

I hope you're vigorously working on updating things. 22.9% of finishing 1st right now, sounds awesome.

 

[FredCyclone]

Time to take a step back. Hold the horses and enjoy the ride. Hope the Team puts up a great effort on the road against a very good WVU team. I like that our Coach is super calm after program changing wins, he sees it as a stepping stone. I like coach Rhoads, but got a little to emotional after wins.

 

[cloneteach]

Time to take a step back. Hold the horses and enjoy the ride. Hope the Team puts up a great effort on the road against a very good WVU team. I like that our Coach is super calm after program changing wins, he sees it as a stepping stone. I like coach Rhoads, but got a little to emotional after wins.

Agree for the most part, but part of enjoying the ride as a fan is looking ahead and holding out hope for a really special season

 

[Dale]

Massey -- where I get my data from -- is having problems right now. But I will update after he's fixed.

 

[Dale]

Here we go. 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, post-TCU:

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

TCU: 57.9% (33.3% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 48.0% (22.2% 1st, 25.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.5% (21.9% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 41.4% (21.0% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
Texas: 4.4% (1.1% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.7% (0.5% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor, Kansas, Tech: nada.

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma St./TCU: 20.0%
Oklahoma/TCU: 19.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.0%
Iowa St./TCU: 17.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 14.7%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 9.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 2.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.1%
Oklahoma/Texas: 1.0%

Here's how the Championship Game odds change for ISU based on the ISU/WV game:

win: 58.9% (31.4% 1st, 27.5% 2nd)
lose: 21.4% (8.9% 1st, 12.5% 2nd)

If you're looking for someone to cheer for at Bedlam, Oklahoma raises ISU Championship chances by 3% or so over OSU winning.

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record:

6-6: 1.8%
7-5: 15.2%
8-4: 37.6%
9-3: 35.1%
10-2: 10.3%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy enough to do.

 

[Dale]

I got the idea this morning to break down Iowa State's Championship Game odds by final record: There's a stark cutoff line:

10-2: 100.0%
9-3: 83.6%
8-4: 5.2%
7-5: 0.0%
6-6: 0.0%

 

[Cyclonepride]

I got the idea this morning to break down Iowa State's Championship Game odds by final record: There's a stark cutoff line:

10-2: 100.0%
9-3: 83.6%
8-4: 5.2%
7-5: 0.0%
6-6: 0.0%

Pretty much what I expected. Have to finish strong.

 

[helechopper]

Incredibly interesting. Thanks Dale, member since March 5th 2010.

 

[Omaha Cy]

Curious what ISU's chances of reaching B12 CCG would be with another loss, but beating OSU. Obviously thats with the consideration that WVU/UT don't go and win out or something crazy and throw a wrench into the top 4 which are seemingly going to be ISU/OU/TCU/OSU.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Dale could you give the odds of making the championship for each of the 4 ways of finishing 9-3? Thanks

 

[cyclonestans]

Curious what ISU's chances of reaching B12 CCG would be with another loss, but beating OSU. Obviously thats with the consideration that WVU/UT don't go and win out or something crazy and throw a wrench into the top 4 which are seemingly going to be ISU/OU/TCU/OSU.

100% in the title game if that scenario plays out!

 

[Jmarsh13]

All of the remaining head to head games between ISU, OU, OSU, and TCU occur over the next 2 weeks with the final 2 weeks being more matchups with the lower tier teams. Things will really shake out between now and 11/11.

This should also help the top B12 teams as it lessens the chance of a late season loss that makes it harder to climb back up in the polls. SEC has been genius about having early conference games and then having a cupcake non-con in mid-November for this exact reason.

 

[Dale]

Dale could you give the odds of making the championship for each of the 4 ways of finishing 9-3? Thanks

Loss to Baylor: 98.7% (48.5% 1st, 50.1% 2nd)
Loss to KSU: 98.6% (48.0% 1st, 50.6% 2nd)
Loss to OSU: 69.8% (13.6% 1st, 56.2% 2nd)
Loss to WV: 96.9% (45.6% 1st, 51.2% 2nd)

 

[Cytasticlone]

@Dale This is f'n awesome! Thanks for the work! Also, parsing through end of season hypotheticals for ISU is actually fun this year!

 

[Dale]

100% in the title game if that scenario plays out!

Yes, except in the rare scenarios where either Texas or West Virginia wins out and gets to 7 conference wins as well.