Torvik probably has a more accurate projection than these bracketologist right now.
Most bracketologist seed the tournament as if it was going to start tomorrow. But it won't. There's still a month and a half of conference games to be played. And Big 12 teams are going to be picking up good wins and "not bad" losses the whole time while the other conferences with teams in competition for at-large bids are going to pick up worse wins and much worse losses along the way for everybody's metrics.
So...
SEED LINE
#1 Houston
#2 Iowa St.
#3 Kansas
#3 BYU
#4 Baylor
#5 Texas Tech
#6 TCU
#8 Oklahoma
#8 Texas
#10 Cincinnati
10/14 not bad
Distance from the last team in Dayton (currently Nebraska)...
11th Kansas St.
25th UCF
113th Oklahoma St.
121st West Virginia
So, ten on the right side of the bubble right now. Kansas St. and UCF are in striking distance if February goes well for them. Oklahoma St. and West Virginia are very much lost causes.
12/14 teams at least on the bubble