2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Perfect timing for a nationally televised game to gain some attention
The real Big Boomer energy is having a folder of bookmarks from Internet Explorer.
Next three games are all winnable. Get one if two on the road and take care of business at home against TCU and we are probably drivers seat for the conference.
We're definitely in good shape if we can do that!
I'm not going to think that until we're up a game or even two in the loss column over Houston.
They still get Iowa State at home. That's likely a loss -- awesome upset if it happens but don't rely on it.
They've KILLED everybody they've played except for two close losses on the road against good Iowa State and TCU teams in intimidating environments. I need to see them stumble first.
I wouldn't say drivers seat. Long long way to go yet.
Gonna be a marathon against UH. Just stay as close as you can, for as long as you can.
Houston has KU twice, at Baylor and at OU.
We’ve got KU ans @OU out of the way.
Do not disagree that UH is going to be up there too. Could very well be them and us at the end.
We’ve got KU ans @OU out of the way.
Do not disagree that UH is going to be up there too. Could very well be them and us at the end.
Yeah, there's a reason that Barttorvik gives Houston an 85% chance of winning the conference (68% to win it outright). Their metrics put them on a whole different level from the rest of the conference right now. I tend to think those numbers are too high, but I do think that Houston is the clear favorite at the moment.
Houston is at Texas tonight and at Kansas on Saturday. Now that they're a bit more acclimated to the Big 12, we should be able to learn a lot from those two games as to whether they're truly dominant or if they're just very good.
Thought this was an interesting (updated) view
A couple takeaways on that -
Final Four teams are almost always in the middle of the upper right quadrant - and we are much higher this year than last year on the X-axis.
The gap Houston has opened on Defensive Efficiency between them and everyone else is mindboggling. They are 6+ points (per 100 possessions) better than anyone else.
Kenpom has a much more negative view of our offensive efficiency (~50th) than the straight numbers or other metrics (25th-30th)
I feel like it will be Houston and then everyone else
They are rated #1 at 82.6 adjusted defense. Guess who is rated #2 at 91.1? That is a big gap between 1 and 2. For reference that margin is the difference between #2 and #84 ranked defenses.
My quick take aways . . . we are #2 in defense and ahead of Iowa on offense (when their whole schtick is offense). The offense has taken leaps and bounds over last year when we would have been left of the midpoint line for offense.
A couple interesting things I noticed when perusing Barttorvik today:
First, Iowa State has had very similar adjusted offensive ratings the last 4 games (all very good), and 5 of the 7 Big 12 games. But they've come in different ways, some with great offensive rebounding, some with high free throw rates, then finally Kansas on Saturday with great 3-point shooting. At the same time, they haven't had any consistent four-factor areas of struggle (yes, free throw shooting is the struggle area that doesn't show up on here). As I've said before, this team is more consistently well-rounded than the previous Otz half-court offenses that largely relied on offensive rebounding and hot shooting nights.
Then, Barttorvik has a cool tool where you can find a team's most similar comparisons based on their efficiency profiles and some other style attributes. Here are Iowa State's comps right now. (Link)
Not bad company to be in, especially with the couple of most similar teams.
First, Iowa State has had very similar adjusted offensive ratings the last 4 games (all very good), and 5 of the 7 Big 12 games. But they've come in different ways, some with great offensive rebounding, some with high free throw rates, then finally Kansas on Saturday with great 3-point shooting. At the same time, they haven't had any consistent four-factor areas of struggle (yes, free throw shooting is the struggle area that doesn't show up on here). As I've said before, this team is more consistently well-rounded than the previous Otz half-court offenses that largely relied on offensive rebounding and hot shooting nights.
Then, Barttorvik has a cool tool where you can find a team's most similar comparisons based on their efficiency profiles and some other style attributes. Here are Iowa State's comps right now. (Link)
Not bad company to be in, especially with the couple of most similar teams.
this is the week they should stumble more than other weeks. At Texas tonight and at KU this weekend.
Didn't know where to put this and didn't want to make a whole new thread about it.
Caught the coaches show tonight and listened to part where TJ described every assistants role and what generally goes on in standard media timeout huddle.
Was fascinating stuff and would recommend checking it out if you normally don't catch them.
Caught the coaches show tonight and listened to part where TJ described every assistants role and what generally goes on in standard media timeout huddle.
Was fascinating stuff and would recommend checking it out if you normally don't catch them.
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Did catch the radio show tonight very interesting in the break down of the assistant coaches duties
