2nd place in the North may be a bit high, but 3rd should be up for grabs. I really don't see why we couldn't reach .500 with a similar schedule to last year. Let's break down improvement position by position. Better (+), Worse (-), no change or toss up (~)
QB +...Meyer certainly has the talent to return to Sophomore form and start fresh from the dreadful season last year.
RB +...If Bass and Scales are healthy, I really don't see how we can get less or equal production even with a weak OL. Even when there were a few holes last year, a gimpy Hicks, who's not fast to begin with had no chance.
Receivers...+ Blythe back, just about has to be better than last year getting more touches with no mono. Sumrall and Franklin have the potential to be just as good as Flynn and Davis, at least after some experience. TEs about the same with Barkema back.
O-line ~...who knows.
D-line ~...another who knows. some returners, but a lot of ???
LBs...~ this is probably a wash. Bowen and Carper back, losing McKenzie.
DBs +...experience and Bell have to make them better
Kicking game ~...I really don't see how this will change much. I think we know exactly what to expect in both punting and kicking
Coaching/intangibles +...This has to be better. The team essentially was lost half way through the season and pretty much quit playing till the Mizzou game. Opposing teams will have harder times preparing as it won't be the same old same old. I expect coaching to improve things on both sides of the ball.
If the 4 ~s turn out to be one better, one worse and two the same, I'll take that improvement and good for 2 more Ws, .500, and a marginal bowl game.
I'm not suggesting this will change your rating, but don't forget one of the RB's most important jobs - blocking. Hicks was said to be excellent at this, so even if Bass and Scales run well this skill may go down a bit. Also, with Kock gone, I expect the FB position to drop. I don't care how much potential Means or Catlett have - Kock was a 3 or 4 yr. starter and excellent at his position. SO, in RB/FB I would give + to running game and + pass-catch out of the backfield, but probably - on FB and - on pass protection. depending on how you then look at the overall position does it change your rating or maybe make it a lesser +?
TE -> I would say this drops a little with the loss of Nickel but haven't seen much of this position in the new offense scheme to know
O-Line -> This has to be a +. With the addition of a couple of JUCO's and another year under the belt of Stephens, Tibbs, Schmeling, I don't see how we can't improve here. Add McFarland as the new OL coach, our S&C coach, and I'm looking for big improvement here.
LB -> I see this as a +. I think Bowen is in the best shape of his life and the new defensive scheme highlight his skills and allow him to shine. Banks has finally found a home and I look for big things from him. add in Garrin, Bibbs, and maybe Carper and this bunch will be an improved squad and clearly the strength of our defense.
DB -> Again, if this is a + it may be just a slight one. We lost an NFL caliber DB in Jackson from last year's squad (what game did he go down last year?)
kicking -> this may be a toss up as you suggest but I think will definitely be a strength of this team. I'm excited to see how our special teams will affect games this year.