Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

BallSoHard4Cy

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Apr 20, 2012
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About an inch in a half here in Ankeny. That might be generous. Pretty wimpy Ultra Mega Superstorm of the Century - 2013 if you ask me.
 

jburke

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Apr 11, 2006
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Ankeny, IA
Over hyped and lame, I am very sick of the ultra-sensitive weather world we live in. Close schools early, for an inch by 5:00, seriously!!!!
 

ISUAlum2002

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Apr 11, 2006
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Over hyped and lame, I am very sick of the ultra-sensitive weather world we live in. Close schools early, for an inch by 5:00, seriously!!!!

At the risk of sounding like a crotchety old man (I'm only 33, for god's sakes!), it practically took an act of congress to get the DSM/suburb school districts to close for snow days. Now we have them closing up shop before a single snowflake even hits the ground!! Pathetic. Nut up, people.....we live in Iowa, we're supposed to get snow here and we're well-equipped to deal with it.
 

isuchicago

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Apr 11, 2006
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I don't expect 100% accuracy from someone literally predicting the future. If Michael J Fox shows up on a floating skateboard, then I expect exact amounts..and a heads up on TCU beating kansas. With the technology we have, weather forecasting is more accurate than ever. But its still predicting the future, with unknown variables you don't control.

I'll also take expecting 20 and getting 3 over expecting 3 and getting 20 any day.
 

ianoconnor

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I don't expect 100% accuracy from someone literally predicting the future. If Michael J Fox shows up on a floating skateboard, then I expect exact amounts..and a heads up on TCU beating kansas. With the technology we have, weather forecasting is more accurate than ever. But its still predicting the future, with unknown variables you don't control.

I'll also take expecting 20 and getting 3 over expecting 3 and getting 20 any day.
This is exactly the type of rational thought we don't need in here.
 

BCforISU

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Feb 17, 2008
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about 5 inches here in Springfield, IL by 7pm, then had freezing rain, not to bad though, just drove home, no problems, no wind. Pretty weak really.
 

alarson

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I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.

I'm a bit worried since this could sort of be a "dying" system, that dry air could get wrapped in on Thursday and cut stuff down.

Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.

But this thing doesn't move onshore until Tuesday, so those numbers really don't have a lot of significance or meaning at this point.

There is still potential there for totals to go over that in Des Moines, but that's where my gut is going right now.

Not bad. (post from 5 days or so ago)
 
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FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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Not bad. (post from 5 days or so ago)

Thanks alarson. Can't rep you anymore, otherwise I would.

It's possible that totals might find a way to scrape into the forecasted range by the time everything stops, but it still wasn't a great forecast on the day of.

Certainly had timing issues screwed up quite and bit, as well as intensity/storm evolution. Did not unfold as we said it would, even it it gets close or into 6-8".

So while that aspect of the forecast might end up being correct, we still had some misses.

With this being a "dying" storm, past peak maturity as stated in that Saturday post, the risk of dry air getting wrapped in is pretty high, or higher than normal at least, so should have probably be a bit more guarded on that front throughout the day Thursday.

Thanks though. It was a tough one this time around. Verified our forecast across Kansas and Missouri for our lead up, but busted the evolution into Iowa, and that's what counts most.
 
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00clone

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Apr 12, 2011
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Thanks alarson. Can't rep you anymore, otherwise I would.

It's possible that totals might find a way to scrape into the forecasted range by the time everything stops, but it still wasn't a great forecast on the day of.

Certainly had timing issues screwed up quite and bit, as well as intensity/storm evolution. Did not unfold as we said it would, even it it gets close or into 6-8".

So while that aspect of the forecast might end up being correct, we still had some misses.

With this being a "dying" storm, past peak maturity as stated in that Saturday post, the risk of dry air getting wrapped in is pretty high, or higher than normal at least, so should have probably be a bit more guarded on that front throughout the day Thursday.

Thanks though. It was a tough one this time around. Verified our forecast across Kansas and Missouri for our lead up, but busted the evolution into Iowa, and that's what counts most.

Wasn't the last report that the heavier totals were going to be over here in Herkeyland? I see KDVN has a spotter report of 4.1" from Muscatine....well nevermind, just pulled up actual radar, it's stopped there already.

FWIW: I just drove 15 miles on I-80 and a state highway...some not plowed yet, I'd put my estimate of the Iowa City area at....4-6" But to be honest, that's not accounting for any wind/drifting, just what I drove thru, so I could be way off either way.
 

cy4prez7

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At about 5.5 inches in Ames right now. Should end up with close to 7 when all said and done with.