Update on a vaccine

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CycloneWanderer

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The fast tracking is what scares me too. Listened to a podcast back in March that had a disease expert from the Univ of Minnesota that said it should take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. It's been 4 months and they're mass producing? Sounds like a race for a big money grab to me.

Some of it is the Gates Foundation funding production of vaccine candidates. It's not entirely a money grab.
 

Gorm

With any luck we will be there by Tuesday.
SuperFanatic
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Race for a money grab? Probably, but necessity is always the mother of invention, and right now it appears a vaccine is almost going to be a necessity for most people.
 

Dopey

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Nov 2, 2009
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Surprised how many are wary of taking this right away. I thought I'd be in the minority.

With that, and all these back to school plan discussion, does anything think places could require proof of a vaccine to return to work/school?

How would you feel about that?
 

harimad

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Jul 28, 2016
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I never said I wouldn’t vaccinate. I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity to make allusions to a possible future where mass vaccination from a fast-tracked cure results in Cronenberg Rick and Cronenberg Morty. Along with Cronenberg @HFCS, Cronenberg @ArgentCy... Cronenberg basically all of us.
 

Ozclone

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Dec 12, 2009
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I am honestly surprised by the number of people who feel that the vaccine is higher risk simply because it is being fast-tracked. I have worked in tech development my entire career and there are definitely ways to speed things up in dramatic fashion without impacting the quality of the development part of the activity.

Resources- While doubling the number of people working something doesn't cut the time in half, it does speed it up. Now take the order of magnitude increase in the number of people working on this vs. a typical vaccine and it isn't a stretch to think that significant reductions are possible. This also applies to access to capital resources, not waiting your turn on a piece of equipment saves amazing amounts of time.

Priority - Lots of people are peripherally involved in any development, if they are prepared to set down other tasks to work a priority item when it gets to them, it is amazing how much time is saved. One example, we usually plan on 1-2 weeks to get purchase orders out when we order material or parts, but when something is "hot" it goes out the same day the buyer receives the request.

Bureaucracy - I don't even want to think how long simple government approvals normally take, and it isn't due to being more thorough. Making a month-long approval flow happen in a couple of days really adds up when there are multiple approval cycles.

I understand not wanting to "rush" things, but proper acceleration through increased resources and priority, and reduced bureaucracy flow time (all of which is definitely happening in this case) can greatly reduce flow without impacting quality. The increase in attention oftentimes increases the quality since there are more reviews and the best people get assigned to work the problem.
 
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HFCS

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Aug 13, 2010
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I am honestly surprised by the number of people who feel that the vaccine is higher risk simply because it is being fast-tracked. I have worked in tech development my entire career and there are definitely ways to speed things up in dramatic fashion without impacting the quality of the development part of the activity.

Resources- While doubling the number of people working something doesn't cut the time in half, it does speed it up. Now take the order of magnitude increase in the number of people working on this vs. a typical vaccine and it isn't a stretch to think that significant reductions are possible. This also applies to access to capital resources, not waiting your turn on a piece of equipment saves amazing amounts of time.

Priority - Lots of people are peripherally involved in any development, if they are prepared to set down other tasks to work a priority item when it gets to them, it is amazing how much time is saved. One example, we usually plan on 1-2 weeks to get purchase orders out when we order material or parts, but when something is "hot" it goes out the same day the buyer receives the request.

Bureaucracy - I don't even want to think how long simple government approvals normally take, and it isn't due to being more thorough. Making a month-long approval flow happen in a couple of days really adds up when there are multiple approval cycles.

I understand not wanting to "rush" things, but proper acceleration through increased resources and priority, and reduced bureaucracy flow time (all of which is definitely happening in this case) can greatly reduce flow without impacting quality. The increase in attention oftentimes increases the quality since there are more reviews and the best people get assigned to work the problem.

Similar experience as a toy designer, and you won't find many things that are more heavily safety tested than kids toys.

Our avg product development is 10 months. 3-4 weeks of that is safety testing and a month is shipping. We can fast track something to 4 months but the 3-4 weeks of testing stays the same and the month of shipping stays the same.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Of course they are. Nothing we aren't doing right back, though.

Kind of how this chess game is played.

China and Russia are playing chess. The US has been playing checkers for quite some time.


"In the game of chess, you can never let your opponent see all your pieces"
 

Sigmapolis

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China and Russia are playing chess. The US has been playing checkers for quite some time.


"In the game of chess, you can never let your opponent see all your pieces"

My point was more disinformation campaigns and election interference against geopolitical opponents (and even notional friends) is something we are hardly strangers to as a nation. We are well-versed in it. Heck, here is a list of U.S. involvement in regime changes. It is not short. And those are the relatively overt ones, too, not the less intense "spread a little chaos" disinformation stuff that fell short of causing a revolution.

I just assume the Russians and the Chinese are always up to something because they are always up to something. The same thing is true on our side.

If you do not like the game, then be Switzerland and don't play.
 

HFCS

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China and Russia are playing chess. The US has been playing checkers for quite some time.


"In the game of chess, you can never let your opponent see all your pieces"

Do you tell your opponent on globally televised live tv they're telling the truth and your own team is all liars?

Because that's our Russia strategy.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Do you ever think the anti-vaxxer movement is perpetuated by foreign governments in an attempt to weaken the US population?

I suspect some of the organization and funding for groups like antifa and white supremacists, groups that want and cause chaos and violence, comes from Russia, China, Iran, etc. Just a toned down version of their "Little Green Men" efforts in Ukraine, Libya, etc.

The Soviets provided money and support to some of the antiwar groups back in the 60s and 70s, and I would be shocked if they are NOT doing it now. Free speech is one of our deepest strengths, but it is also a vulnerability in that way.

Evil triumphs when good men do nothing. ALL of us need to speak up against injustice, hate, and violence.
 

HFCS

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Evil triumphs when good men do nothing. ALL of us need to speak up against injustice, hate, and violence.

Willful ignorance is just as dangerous but that gains protected status more and more by the year in this nonsensical idea that every opinion on every issue needs to be treated as valid.

We're in the process of feeling the consequence of celebrating ignorance.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Do you tell your opponent on globally televised live tv they're telling the truth and your own team is all liars?

Because that's our Russia strategy.

Agree. We also did a relations "reset" in the prior administration. That was also a joke of a policy. When I say the US is playing checkers, that's a non-partisan statement.

Not sure anyone with any authority really understands the challenge of Russia. It's not existential, but the first step to a strategy is recognizing and understanding the problem.

China, I think we understand the problem, but sure as heck don't have a strategy yet. They were kind of moving towards one, W & BO, with alliances and larger groups of regional associations (ASEAN, TPP, et al) in order to nudge China into playing nice and not bullying smaller nations individually. But we have mistakenly pulled back from all that, to the applause of most voters...

How did a vaccine thread turn into geopolitics? lol I do enjoy these discussions though, complex and interesting.
 

adjl

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Jun 13, 2019
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Surprised how many are wary of taking this right away. I thought I'd be in the minority.

With that, and all these back to school plan discussion, does anything think places could require proof of a vaccine to return to work/school?

How would you feel about that?
I would take the vaccine by a shot up my nose if they could guarantee college football would be played. Man I miss sports.
 

SpokaneCY

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Apr 11, 2006
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My point was more disinformation campaigns and election interference against geopolitical opponents (and even notional friends) is something we are hardly strangers to as a nation. We are well-versed in it. Heck, here is a list of U.S. involvement in regime changes. It is not short. And those are the relatively overt ones, too, not the less intense "spread a little chaos" disinformation stuff that fell short of causing a revolution.

I just assume the Russians and the Chinese are always up to something because they are always up to something. The same thing is true on our side.

If you do not like the game, then be Switzerland and don't play.

No nazi wealth in switzerland. Nothing to see here! NEIN!!!!!!!
 

Gunnerclone

Well-Known Member
Jul 16, 2010
69,088
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I am honestly surprised by the number of people who feel that the vaccine is higher risk simply because it is being fast-tracked. I have worked in tech development my entire career and there are definitely ways to speed things up in dramatic fashion without impacting the quality of the development part of the activity.

Resources- While doubling the number of people working something doesn't cut the time in half, it does speed it up. Now take the order of magnitude increase in the number of people working on this vs. a typical vaccine and it isn't a stretch to think that significant reductions are possible. This also applies to access to capital resources, not waiting your turn on a piece of equipment saves amazing amounts of time.

Priority - Lots of people are peripherally involved in any development, if they are prepared to set down other tasks to work a priority item when it gets to them, it is amazing how much time is saved. One example, we usually plan on 1-2 weeks to get purchase orders out when we order material or parts, but when something is "hot" it goes out the same day the buyer receives the request.

Bureaucracy - I don't even want to think how long simple government approvals normally take, and it isn't due to being more thorough. Making a month-long approval flow happen in a couple of days really adds up when there are multiple approval cycles.

I understand not wanting to "rush" things, but proper acceleration through increased resources and priority, and reduced bureaucracy flow time (all of which is definitely happening in this case) can greatly reduce flow without impacting quality. The increase in attention oftentimes increases the quality since there are more reviews and the best people get assigned to work the problem.

It’s a combination of factors. One being that the current administration can’t be trusted and doesn’t do anything right. If Trump says to take a vaccine that has been fast tracked then you have to do the Trump math.
 

brett108

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May 1, 2010
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Tulsa, OK
Surprised how many are wary of taking this right away. I thought I'd be in the minority.

With that, and all these back to school plan discussion, does anything think places could require proof of a vaccine to return to work/school?

How would you feel about that?
Schools that I have attended required proof of vaccination for years. My current school for my children does. They are getting the first safe vaccine candidate regardless but I have no issues with schools requiring the vaccine.
 

CTTB78

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Apr 7, 2006
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.... If Trump says to take a vaccine that has been fast tracked then you have to do the Trump math.

Which medical expert would have to tell you their 'math' has determined that the vaccine is beneficial before you would take it?
 

Ozclone

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Dec 12, 2009
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It’s a combination of factors. One being that the current administration can’t be trusted and doesn’t do anything right. If Trump says to take a vaccine that has been fast tracked then you have to do the Trump math.

This isn't hydroxychloroquine that we are talking about. These are vaccines that are being developed outside the trump sphere of influence, some of which are being developed overseas. It isn't like there is one, and only one, vaccine being developed by a trump financial interest that he is pushing. It's a close race and the options are all being vetted. One of the dozens will be safe (or as safe as any medicine can be) and I don't see the medical community pushing an unsafe option over a safe one just because trump says so. As big of a screwup as he is, the system is still enough outside his influence that real progress is going to be made on a safe vaccine. IMO
 

kcbob79clone

Well-Known Member
Trying to get this thread back to a "potentially" good news thread versus the various tangents so far. Sorry if this is a repeat, every thread seems to divert into a coronavirus discussion and the couple keyword searches I tried didn't find it.

From the Jerusalem Post, new study shows how coronavirus controls metabolism and which FDA-approved drug could stop it

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...-eradicate-covid-19-from-lungs-in-days-635028
 
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