Update on a vaccine

[cowgirl836]

I am not trying to be a negative nancy about this, but I saw an article a few weeks ago that Dr. Fauci stated he wasn't sure how effective a vaccine would even be. I am guessing that it comes from the fact that a person can get COVID multiple times. If they have already had it, they should have anti-bodies already and they still will get it. All I am trying to say is that a vaccine may not be the savior everyone thinks it will be.

that's my hang-up. aside from some leeriness toward the fast-tracking (though Entropy's info is good), there is a decent number of anecdotes of people getting this separate times. I'd like to blame it on faulty tests or a flare up of an existing case but it's definitely concerning to me. If it's like the flu then......will the vaccine made off this spring's virus be effective against next spring?

 

[Dandy]

All I know is, when this thing is figured out, we’re all going to be superhuman. This is the next round of evolution, and science is pushing it forward. Gonna have to raise the hoop to 15’ in a coupe years.


(somewhat jimlad)

Hoop should already be changed to 12'. Change my mind.

 

[Dandy]

that's my hang-up. aside from some leeriness toward the fast-tracking (though Entropy's info is good), there is a decent number of anecdotes of people getting this separate times. I'd like to blame it on faulty tests or a flare up of an existing case but it's definitely concerning to me. If it's like the flu then......will the vaccine made off this spring's virus be effective against next spring?

The fast tracking is what scares me too. Listened to a podcast back in March that had a disease expert from the Univ of Minnesota that said it should take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. It's been 4 months and they're mass producing? Sounds like a race for a big money grab to me.

 

[cowgirl836]

The fast tracking is what scares me too. Listened to a podcast back in March that had a disease expert from the Univ of Minnesota that said it should take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. It's been 4 months and they're mass producing? Sounds like a race for a big money grab to me.

Trying to avoid Cave but there's obviously been a lot of political pressure/promises for a vaccine from people without a strong record of promoting scientifically/medically sound treatments. But again, what Entropy posted gives a lot of context to how some are able to be ready to go on this and it doesn't sound like politicians are involved.

 

[madguy30]

I think you can be fine with vaccines yet still be concerned about this one being rushed. That's not unreasonable or crazy. Though the crazies will be out in force too, of course.

Agree with you on generally irrationality of human beings. I had a gal smoking a cigarette give me grief for drinking a diet pepsi - "diet pop is so bad for you, do you know what kinds of chemicals are in those?" Good grief.

My favorite people are the ones smoking and texting while tailgating me, and honking/gesturing for me to go faster, when I'm not able to because there's a car in front of me....of which I can't physically drive through.

 

[Gunnerclone]

This.

Is it weird that I'm more afraid of the vaccine than I am the coronavirus itself?

My child’s doctor that is 100%. not an anti-vaxxer told us straight up at his last appointment that she wouldn’t get the vaccine or have her kids get it for at least a year after it becomes available.

 

[HFCS]

I think you can be fine with vaccines yet still be concerned about this one being rushed. That's not unreasonable or crazy. Though the crazies will be out in force too, of course.

Agree with you on generally irrationality of human beings. I had a gal smoking a cigarette give me grief for drinking a diet pepsi - "diet pop is so bad for you, do you know what kinds of chemicals are in those?" Good grief.

It seems like other countries and cultures are advanced enough they can be more patient about a vaccine than we can. America is pretty clearly in the category where this will never get better without some sort of pill or vaccination. We've shown none of the maturity, responsibility, empathy or leadership needed to address the challenge through our behavior and the way we treat each other.

Enough people here in the USA just won't change their behavior. Whether it's out of spiteful tribalism, ignorance, selfishness, a severely incorrect idea of what is good for the economy, distrust of science/data or a desire to follow wildly unfit leadership off a cliff. For whatever reason we've highlighted a major flaw in current American culture.

 

[GBlade]

If this were available next week, would you get it?

Yes, and I'd participate in the Phase III trials if possible. I've had serious pneumonia twice, each time taking minimum 6 months of recovery. I've done pretty good at isolating since I'm in a high risk group. Had a scare this weekend when I came down with a fever and shortness of breath, but the covid test came back negative and antibiotics are helping.

I worry about this being a two part vaccine. My only other experience with that is my parent's shingles vaccine where the second dose was backlogged for months. It's going to be even worse for this.

 

[dafarmer]

Not to be a Debby Downer, but they also said it might have to be given every 2 months because immunity wears out fast. Still, better than nothing.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It seems like other countries and cultures are advanced enough they can be more patient about a vaccine than we can. America is pretty clearly in the category where this will never get better without some sort of pill or vaccination. We've shown none of the maturity, responsibility, empathy or leadership needed to address the challenge through our behavior and the way we treat each other.

Enough people here in the USA just won't change their behavior. Whether it's out of spiteful tribalism, ignorance, selfishness, a severely incorrect idea of what is good for the economy, distrust of science/data or a desire to follow wildly unfit leadership off a cliff. For whatever reason we've highlighted a major flaw in current American culture.

I like your post, and you have definitely pointed out a downside to American culture. Americans are disorderly and disobedient people as a rule. We are much more violent compared to every other developed nation, too, on whatever metric you might use. We have more gun crime, stabbings, more beatings, more domestic violence, and more deadly accidents (especially of a vehicular nature) than our notional peers in Japan, Europe, and the rest of OECD. We just are who we are as a chaotic people.

The above is why I am always skeptical of emulation European or Japanese/Korean policies as a solution in an American context, but that is a broader point. Swedes actually obey sidewalk lines, and Swiss actually buy insurance when it is mandated. Americans do not. We are in many ways more comparable as a society to the rest of the New World with Latin America, the Caribbean, and our immediate neighbor México.

That unruliness, however, is also the source of our greatest strength. Americans challenge the existing order to a higher degree than do our peers in other industrialized democracies. We have a murder rate higher than Pakistan, but we also went to the Moon, have a huge economy and military, and are the home to Apple, Facebook, Disney, Coca Cola, Hollywood, the Internet, and Wall Street. Many of our greatest companies and institutions were founded by dropouts. We are richer than our peers (our per capita GDP is 20% more than Germany, Denmark, and Sweden plus 40% more than France). Everything cool and useful in the modern world tends to have an American origin story.

Most of the largest American businesses are <40 years old. The largest German corporations all began in the 19th Century (e.g., Allianz, VW, BMW, etc.), the largest Danish firm (Maersk) was founded in 1904, and the largest businesses in Norway are a state-owned oil company, a state-owned aluminum company, and a state-owned telecom. You might say "gimme some of that" stability and sanity, and you would be welcome to it. But you are not an American to go on the stable and safe merry-go-round. You are an American to go on the biggest roller coaster in the park and, once you get off, to demand a bigger one.

There is a wildness to Americans -- both one that makes us violent and ungovernable but also one that gives us an audacity to try others do not have.

 

[yowza]

Hmm. China is already injecting their military with a vaccine, so I guess they will go first and see how it goes.

 

[yowza]

Developing a vaccine is one thing, being able to get production of it is another. I have no idea how long it would take to set up a production line at an acceptable capacity for the nation.

They are already doing this. Was discussed on CNBC also. Facilities are being set up and ready to crank it out. Was surprising how many doses and how quickly they will be able to do it.

 

[MLawrence]

Not next week, not next month, not next year. Should I keep going?

Do you ever think the anti-vaxxer movement is perpetuated by foreign governments in an attempt to weaken the US population?

 

[SCNCY]

They are already doing this. Was discussed on CNBC also. Facilities are being set up and ready to crank it out. Was surprising how many doses and how quickly they will be able to do it.

Since working from home, I've had nothing but cnbc on during the day. The one day I have problems with the cable, I miss this interesting news

 

[Sigmapolis]

Do you ever think the anti-vaxxer movement is perpetuated by foreign governments in an attempt to weaken the US population?

Of course they are. Nothing we aren't doing right back, though.

Kind of how this chess game is played.

 

[HFCS]

I like your post, and you have definitely pointed out a downside to American culture. Americans are disorderly and disobedient people as a rule. We are much more violent compared to every other developed nation, too, on whatever metric you might use. We have more gun crime, stabbings, more beatings, more domestic violence, and more deadly accidents (especially of a vehicular nature) than our notional peers in Japan, Europe, and the rest of OECD have. We just are who we are as a people.

The above is why I am always skeptical of emulation European or Japanese/Korean policies as a solution in an American context, but that is a broader point. Swedes actually obey sidewalk lines, and Swiss actually buy insurance when it is mandated. Americans do not. We are in many ways more comparable as a society to the rest of the New World with Latin America, the Caribbean, and our immediate neighbor México.

That unruliness, however, is also the source of our greatest strength. Americans challenge the existing order to a higher degree than do our peers in other industrialized democracies. We have a murder rate higher than Pakistan, but we also went to the Moon, have a huge economy and military, and are the home to Apple, Facebook, Disney, Coca Cola, Hollywood, the Internet, and Wall Street. Many of our greatest companies and institutions were founded by dropouts. We are richer than our peers (our per capita GDP is 20% more than Germany, Denmark, and Sweden plus 40% more than France). Everything cool and useful in the modern world tends to have an American origin story.

Most of the largest American businesses are <40 years old. The largest German corporations all began in the 19th Century (e.g., Allianz, VW, BMW, etc.), the largest Danish firm (Maersk) was founded in 1904, and the largest businesses in Norway are a state-owned oil company, a state-owned aluminum company, and a state-owned telecom. You might say "gimme some of that" stability and sanity, and you would be welcome to it. But you are not an American to go on the stable and safe merry-go-round. You are an American to go on the biggest roller coaster in the park and, once you get off, to demand a bigger one.

There is a wildness to Americans -- both one that makes us violent and ungovernable but also one that gives us an audacity to try others do not have.

There's a way to have that bold defiance from a place of knowledge, bravery, innovation and strength, and there's a way to be defiant from a place of willful ignorance. The truly great American accomplishments never came from spiteful ignorance we see growing day by day.

The scale has been tipping toward the willful ignorance category for a while. We were intentionally bringing measles back as a country well before covid hit. We're alone in the developed (and even most of the third) world in denying climate change is an issue. We're the only wealthy nation where over half of bankruptcies are because someone got sick.

Money isn't even the primary motivating factor. Masks were the way to maximize our economic profits and that was definitely not going to fly for a huge % of us, at least until not after four months of unmitigated failure.

 

[psychlone99]

I just want to say that I've enjoyed the posts in this thread from HFCS and Sigmapolis more than much of what I've read here in years. I appreciate the effort to look beyond the decisions we see on the surface and into what makes us tick as a bunch of individual Americans in our (barely) United States of America. I'm tired of the polarization and absolutes. It's not that simple.

 

[Sigmapolis]

There's a way to have that bold defiance from a place of knowledge, bravery, innovation and strength, and there's a way to be defiant from a place of willful ignorance. The truly great American accomplishments never came from spiteful ignorance we see growing day by day.

I generally agree with this, but it is easy to know what was smart and courageous versus what was foolhardy or even idiotic in hindsight. If a few things go differently, then Operation Overlord makes Operation Market Garden look like a stroll, and we remember successes like Iwo Jima in the movies but not disasters like Tarawa.

To paraphrase from Spinal Tap, "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever." What I am saying is American orneriness is a package -- you have to take the violent, the ungovernable, and the conspiratorial (and paranoia and conspiracy theories are something pervasive and unique to the American character long before COVID-19 and masks became a thing) with our grandiose daring and stubbornness. I know the downsides of it suck at the moment, but you kind of have to learn to live with it on some level.

And by the way, to clear my throat -- I hate wearing masks, so I am just not going out. When I rarely do, I cover up. Don't be a fool and wrap your face.

The scale has been tipping toward the willful ignorance category for a while. We were intentionally bringing measles back as a country well before covid hit.

We are actually middle of the road (thank goodness) on the antivax tomfoolery. Looks like eastern Europe, Russia, and Japan are worse than us --

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-most-anti-vaxxer-country-in-the-world-2019-06-19

We're alone in the developed (and even most of the third) world in denying climate change is an issue. We're the only wealthy nation where over half of bankruptcies are because someone got sick.

False. Always has been.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-01-17/the-myth-of-the-medical-bankruptcy

You are a smart poster, and I like conversing with you. But you basically just repeated a conspiracy theory there -- your repeated an oft-repeated but untrue factoid that takes an incredibly complex situation and boils it down in simplest terms. Plus, your story has an obvious villain (if an implicit one) of private health insurance.

If you can fall for it, anybody can, especially people of lesser intelligence.

Money isn't even the primary motivating factor. Masks were the way to maximize our economic profits and that was definitely not going to fly for a huge % of us, at least until not after four months of unmitigated failure.

The lockdown burnt everybody out. Public health officials should have remembered they were dealing with Americans here, not compliant Belgians.

They should have hunkered down for a long war instead of trying to win quick with a massive lockdown. Instead of trying to kill it at once and losing the compliance of states, localities, and the American people quickly becoming sick of taking their orders, they should have went with masks first, tried to keep as much open as possible, and then been more targeted about doing full lockdown. This is going to be a war of attrition that requires grinding out either herd immunity or an effective vaccine regime, and neither is going to be easy. Even some other countries that had it "under control" are starting to lose it again.

 

[CTTB78]

Hmm. China is already injecting their military with a vaccine, so I guess they will go first and see how it goes.

We already know how this will go. The Chinese vaccine is a tremendous success with no issues at all. Just ask them.

 

[nfrine]

Just to be safe, I am going to get all 22 vaccines in development... More is better, right?