*****The Super, Mega, Huge Big 12 Expansion Thread*****

[JohnnyFive]

See my post above this one. They are not going to abandon the BCS ranking system and even if they do the ACC sucks in human polls as well.

You are MAJORLY wrong on an ACC team often making the top four. They miss the top 4 by an average of 7.7 spots over the past decade and have exactly ONE top 4 appearance.

I have no idea if FSU/Clemson will jump. I am quite certain the ACC is going to be left out of 4 team playoff system quite often because I can observe obvious reality.

Maybe this has been mentioned elsewhere, but does anyone else see a massive lawsuit coming out of this if only four conferences are allowed to monopolize the new playoff system?

If the ACC (or whoever else) isn't one of the "conference" champs included in these playoff discussions -- lets say after FSU and Clemson bolt and it becomes a "basketball-first conference" -- and the playoff inevitably becomes a Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 playoff every year, won't that give the other schools a reason to join together to sue the pants off the NCAA/conference monopoly?

 

[cyhiphopp]

Maybe this has been mentioned elsewhere, but does anyone else see a massive lawsuit coming out of this if only four conferences are allowed to monopolize the new playoff system?

If the ACC (or whoever else) isn't one of the "conference" champs included in these playoff discussions -- lets say after FSU and Clemson bolt and it becomes a "basketball-first conference" -- and the playoff inevitably becomes a Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 playoff every year, won't that give the other schools a reason to join together to sue the pants off the NCAA/conference monopoly?

The thing is, it wouldn't be exclusive.

You just have to be good enough to be in that top 4 and not have a complete cupcake schedule.

Boise could have made it in a top 4 playoff (if they ignored their SOS).

An undefeated team not from one of the Big 4 would probably get in over a 1 loss team most years unless they played noone.

 

[HFCS]

You forgot to note undefeated or one-loss ACC teams have been extremely rare the past several years. If it happens, chances are very good that team will qualify in the new format.

Undefeated sure they'd likely get a shot, but Boise State has as good or better chance if they're undefeated not even being in a major conference.

One loss, I think you're wrong, they're waiting in 5th to 8th place behind one loss and some two loss teams from the 4 better conferences. Not to mention a one loss Boise State type of team.

Two losses and they're always out. You'll see 2 loss SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten teams in this top 4 at some point.

 

[HFCS]

Maybe this has been mentioned elsewhere, but does anyone else see a massive lawsuit coming out of this if only four conferences are allowed to monopolize the new playoff system?

If the ACC (or whoever else) isn't one of the "conference" champs included in these playoff discussions -- lets say after FSU and Clemson bolt and it becomes a "basketball-first conference" -- and the playoff inevitably becomes a Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 playoff every year, won't that give the other schools a reason to join together to sue the pants off the NCAA/conference monopoly?

I think that's a reason they share revenues across all conferences with a bonus for top 4 spot winners. If there was legit legal pressure maybe that's when it becomes 8 teams.

The human part of it actually helps the ACC because they are usually worse in the eyes of computers. The ACC, and Big East would simply be in a slightly better situation than Utah was the year they blew out Alabama, except now they might have a slim chance of making 4th place. Utah, TCU and Boise State had to reach #2 to have a chance.

It's hard to see non Big 4 conference teams having a case when Boise State, Utah and TCU already had the screws put to them in a way that was 2x more severe. College football is more inclusive now, just the ACC and Big East are losing automatic big games because they regularly could not put together successful seasons.

 

[cykadelic2]

Undefeated sure they'd likely get a shot, but Boise State has as good or better chance if they're undefeated not even being in a major conference.

One loss, I think you're wrong, they're waiting in 5th to 8th place behind one loss and some two loss teams from the 4 better conferences. Not to mention a one loss Boise State type of team.

Two losses and they're always out. You'll see 2 loss SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten teams in this top 4 at some point.

An undefeated ACC team will always beat out an undefeated BSU team and a one-loss ACC team will always beat out a one-loss BSU team. Also, FSU's non-con SOS has generally been very good so that will offset some of the ACC SOS issues they will likely face.

The main point here is that FSU won't move to the B12 because of SOS issues for FB. They may move due to money reasons if they can make $10M more per yr in the B12. FSU is concerned about the revenue disparity between them and SEC schools.

 

[HFCS]

The thing is, it wouldn't be exclusive.

You just have to be good enough to be in that top 4 and not have a complete cupcake schedule.

Boise could have made it in a top 4 playoff (if they ignored their SOS).

An undefeated team not from one of the Big 4 would probably get in over a 1 loss team most years unless they played noone.

Exactly. Every team not in a major conference has more of a chance now. BSU, Utah and TCU could have been playoff teams if this better structure was in place. Utah could have been rewarded for blowing out Alabama by playing for a National Championship.

Conferences that have generally sucked in terms of being elite, no longer get an automatic elite reward for doing nothing.

I don't see how this is anything but a more in a more fair direction. Nobody had a problem when the top football conference in the nation added a historic program from a historic football state, why would it be monopolizing if Florida State joins the #2 league? Nobody cared when the conference making the most money added legendary programs like Nebraska and Penn State to make even more money...so why should anyone give a flying crap if a program like Clemson joins the league making the 3rd or 4th most money?

 

[HFCS]

An undefeated ACC team will always beat out an undefeated BSU team and a one-loss ACC team will always beat out a one-loss BSU team. Also, FSU's non-con SOS has generally been very good so that will offset some of the ACC SOS issues they will likely face.

The main point here is that FSU won't move to the B12 because of SOS issues for FB. They may move due to money reasons if they can make $10M more per yr in the B12. FSU is concerned about the revenue disparity between them and SEC schools.

Why do you think it's one or another. Both obviously matter. 4 spots, 5 conferences, one conference is clearly #5. Not looking great for the ACC.

You have your head in the sand or haven't been following polls and BCS standings if you think a one loss ACC team with an SOS in the 40s at best is a lock for top 4 most years. Even if FSU schedules really tough, playing in the ACC generally limits your SOS to above 40. 1/3 of the formula is unbiased number crunching that doesn't give a crap whose name is on the helmet. In that 1/3 plenty of 2 loss teams will be above them unless there's a sudden shift in power.

 

[Al_4_State]

Yes, $3 million/year/team.

And that doesn't take into account Tier II, correct?

 

[cykadelic2]

Why do you think it's one or another. Both obviously matter. 4 spots, 5 conferences, one conference is clearly #5. Not looking great for the ACC.

You have your head in the sand or haven't been following polls and BCS standings if you think a one loss ACC team with an SOS in the 40s at best is a lock for top 4 most years. Even if FSU schedules really tough, playing in the ACC generally limits your SOS to above 40. 1/3 of the formula is unbiased number crunching that doesn't give a crap whose name is on the helmet. In that 1/3 plenty of 2 loss teams will be above them unless there's a sudden shift in power.

I never said a one-loss ACC team would be a lock for a playoff spot in the new format I posted it was 50-50 they make it. I think you have your head in the sand (or someplace else) when you read my posts.

 

[CYphyllis]

I never said a one-loss ACC team would be a lock for a playoff spot in the new format I posted it was 50-50 they make it. I think you have your head in the sand (or someplace else) when you read my posts.

No, I think he showed you the history over the last 10 years and correctly pointed out the case. Saying that a 1 loss ACC team is going to have a 50-50 chance is pure speculation and isn't supported by history in any sense.

The ACC isn't on par with the SEC/B12/P12/B10 in terms of football, you have to look at the ACC like the Big East or Mountain West - a full rung below.

 

[erikbj]

There will be 4 teams, not 2, in the new format. Big difference. Another factor will be whether or not conference runner-ups like Bama this past season are excluded from the 4 team playoff. I like Delaney's proposal that if 4 conference champs are ranked in the Top 6 of whatever ranking they use, the top 4 ranked champs will automatically qualify.

When they say 4 teams, they really mean 8. The first round of the playoffs will be the conference championships. Then you are down to 4 winners, then a championship game. 4 conferences will be 14-16 teams play in pods of 7/8 and have a division winner that they send to their conference championship (round 1 of the playoffs). The 4 winners go to the winners BCS games (rd. 2), losers can play in the losers BCS Jan 1 games. Then on Jan 8th there is a national championship (rd 3) game. This way you keep the bowl games, you get an 8 team playoff and only add 1 game to the season and that only affects 2 teams.

 

[BuzzBuzzBuzz]

Report: ACC schools to make $17 million in new TV deal | CollegeFootballTalk

Here's a new wrinkle...

Sorry if it's posted somewhere else!

 

[alarson]

Dont see it as much of a wrinkle. 14 teams only bringing 17mil a team. B12 with FSU +Clemson is easily 25mil.

 

[jbhtexas]

Yes, $3 million/year/team.

Would it cost them more to play in the Big 12 because of higher traveling expenses? I don't have time to calculate the mileages, but just by eye-balling it, it looks Clemson and FSU would have significantly longer distances to travel on average, particularly Clemson.

FSU's athletic budget is nearly $87 million, and Clemson's athletic budget is nearly $61 million. If it costs more to play in the Big 12, it seems like it might take a bigger economic carrot for those schools to make the switch, unless there is more than economics driving a desire to switch.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Report: ACC schools to make $17 million in new TV deal | CollegeFootballTalk

Here's a new wrinkle...

Sorry if it's posted somewhere else!

One line should strike you here:

"In other words, about $17 million per school annually for tier 1, 2 and 3 rights"

The Big12 is scheduled to make $20 million per school annually for tier 1 & 2 ONLY. We still have whatever each school can muster for their 3rd tier. That is still a HUGE difference IMO.

EDIT: I was wrong..the new number was for Tiers 1 and 2...corrected now.

 

[cyhiphopp]

Dont see it as much of a wrinkle. 14 teams only bringing 17mil a team. B12 with FSU +Clemson is easily 25mil.

and that's excluding tier 3 (I believe) which would be pretty substantial for FSU

 

[alarson]

One line should strike you here:



The Big12 is scheduled to make $20 million per school annually for tier 1 ONLY. We still have the tier 2 Fox Contract and then whatever each school can muster for their 3rd tier. That is still a HUGE difference IMO.

Pretty sure the 20mil is tier1+2. Tier 3 is different and where FSU could make some money on top of the big 12 contract (i believe the ACC deal includes tier 3)

 

[RayShimley]

One line should strike you here:



The Big12 is scheduled to make $20 million per school annually for tier 1 & 2 ONLY. We still have whatever each school can muster for their 3rd tier. That is still a HUGE difference IMO.

EDIT: I was wrong..the new number was for Tiers 1 and 2...corrected now.

Pretty sure that 20 mil is Tier 1 and II, two separate contracts. But yes, Tier III rights could be a substantial windfall for schools like Clemson and FSU.

 

[cykadelic2]

No, I think he showed you the history over the last 10 years and correctly pointed out the case. Saying that a 1 loss ACC team is going to have a 50-50 chance is pure speculation and isn't supported by history in any sense.

The ACC isn't on par with the SEC/B12/P12/B10 in terms of football, you have to look at the ACC like the Big East or Mountain West - a full rung below.

....and as I have repeatedly pointed out, the occurrence of undefeated and one-loss ACC teams in the past 10 years is rare. If it happens in the new format, they will be in decent shape to secure a spot in the 4-team playoff.

 

[CrossCyed]

ACC deal is essentially for $16 mil a school if I understand it correctly because it gets split 15 ways, with the ACC office taking a share.