The ACC exit fee is $120m.
The ACC owns their media rights, and the value of those would be somewhere between $221m (in the ACC) and $793m (in the B10) for the duration of the GOR.
ESPN isn't going to go along with blowing up the ACC if schools are going to the B10. They might be slightly more favorable if they're going to the SEC.
The ACC has a contract in place and no reason to negotiate. The schools that could maybe find a place in the B12 have no reason to negotiate so long as that's a parallel move. The schools that would get left out of the P3 have no reason to negotiate as that's an existential threat to their athletic departments.
"We don't like this contract anymore because we could get a better deal elsewhere" isn't a legal argument to break a contract.
UNC, FSU or whomever wants to get out isn't going anywhere. This is likely all posturing to try to get more money from the ACC either through structured unequal revenue distributions or a bigger cut of CFP money if they make appearances.
Big12 had no reason to negotiate either, and took appx 50% of the amount owed.
Exit fees - 2 years @ $35M each = $70M. Plus their GoR for 1 year. That's EACH. But we got $100M (minus Fox cut $20M). Total.
So Big12 got $80M of $140M exit fees (57%), and ZERO for 1 year of GoR.
The much longer ACC GoR has a lot more leverage than the 1 year vs OuT, so that is important. But still, you CAN run the numbers on such a thing.
I guess my point is that you can probably cut that number in half as a practical step. So say $340M ($120+$220). Cut that down to $200M. But if you get $50M more annual, and are guaranteed a spot at the big table forever, that's a no brainer investment.
And if you think the conference can hold their feet to the fire and force them to pay up every last cent... I doubt it. The Hateful 8 couldn't make it happen. Rarely does something like this not get settled. Clemson and FSU could countersue the ACC for dereliction of duty or some such trumped up crap, and string this thing out forever. And there will be motivation for the conference to get on with it.
I am not saying this is imminent or will happen this way exactly. It's probably closer to 2030 than today.
Another way: if the over/under for FSU leaving the ACC was 2035 (GoR expires 2036), would you take the over?