It’s is both windy as **** and sunny as **** here in the geographical center of Iowa.
***Official 2025 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter wxman1
- Start date
Nut jobs fail to score 25 points a game per contract in the Big 10 West. Frankie doesn’t qualify to be a nut job.
Ed Wilson needs to retire. I trust his forecasts as much as wet farts.
Kinda feels like we didn't need to be talking about this for a week.
Aaaaand cue the iT wAs A bUsT crowd. Honest question, why do you folks even bother coming into these threads and/or watching the weather?
I'm not an "it's a bust guy" I'm more of a "why are we trying to forecast so far out" guy.
But the forecast was right. Some pretty bad storms have hit today and will likely go on tonight. It's that people don't understand nuance and that no one was saying that the entire state would be leveled by a tornado today.
If you forecast a 30% chance of rain one day, and it rains, was the forecast right or wrong?
What if it didn't rain?
Say a political pollster forecasts candidate Ronald Trunk has a 33% to win the election, and Trillary Plinton has a 67% chance to win.
Ronald ends up winning. Was the forecast wrong?
How do you evaluate a probabilistic forecast when n=1?
They forecast for a week all hell was going to break loose statewide today. Schools got dismissed early and all extracurricular activities were unnecessarily canceled because of the week long doom and gloom build-up.
Because we have the models and technology capable of it. Generally speaking forecasts these days are pretty darn accurate - when you think about it, it's pretty remarkable that 7 days ago the SPC was able to forecast a severe weather outbreak in Iowa/Southern MN, and have it come to fruition pretty much exactly as expected. Even more so when you take into account how quickly weather can change on a local level day to day. We can't control the weather so percentages always come into play and it will be literally impossible to be perfect regardless of how far out you're looking.
(Quiet voice) All along in this thread the local NWS has been pretty clear that it was going to be pretty iffy (conditional) in Iowa, regardless of what some of the sexy AI stuff was cranking out.
