Better just call and tell them you love them.
***Official 2025 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter wxman1
- Start date
Ah, now we are in the clear slot. It took us 75% of the day to get here, but now the destabilization really starts.
SPC is putting a 95% chance that we will need a tornado watch from west/central Iowa down into Kansas, so there is a lot of confidence there will be some storms over here.
forecast.weather.gov
NWS Des Moines recently predicted that southern Iowa into Missouri might be our best bet for storms due to the best forcing there (which was supported in a number of recent HRRR runs), and it's quite possible Ames/Des Moines will thread the needle between the madness north of I-20 and a few supercells in the Iowa/Missouri border.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 587
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
SPC is putting a 95% chance that we will need a tornado watch from west/central Iowa down into Kansas, so there is a lot of confidence there will be some storms over here.
National Weather Service
NWS Des Moines recently predicted that southern Iowa into Missouri might be our best bet for storms due to the best forcing there (which was supported in a number of recent HRRR runs), and it's quite possible Ames/Des Moines will thread the needle between the madness north of I-20 and a few supercells in the Iowa/Missouri border.
Marshmallowtown is going to get cooked between GrahamCrackerberg and Chocolate City. Could be deliciously catastrophic
Currently the dewpoint from Lincoln to Nebraska City to Clarinda goes 37-60-70.Ah, now we are in the clear slot. It took us 75% of the day to get here, but now the destabilization really starts.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 587
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.www.spc.noaa.gov
SPC is putting a 95% chance that we will need a tornado watch from west/central Iowa down into Kansas, so there is a lot of confidence there will be some storms over here.
National Weather Service
NWS Des Moines recently predicted that southern Iowa into Missouri might be our best bet for storms due to the best forcing there (which was supported in a number of recent HRRR runs), and it's quite possible Ames/Des Moines will thread the needle between the madness north of I-20 and a few supercells in the Iowa/Missouri border.
Dew points will no doubt soar into the upper 60s in central and southern Iowa:
As we go on past 6pm, dew points will start to drop and the low level jet will get ramped up. Remembering back on April 27, 2024, they predicted a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and it didn't really get started until after dark due to that low level jet going up (though I believe Convective Chronicles said the wind shear might actually decrease after sunset which would be interesting).
As we go on past 6pm, dew points will start to drop and the low level jet will get ramped up. Remembering back on April 27, 2024, they predicted a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and it didn't really get started until after dark due to that low level jet going up (though I believe Convective Chronicles said the wind shear might actually decrease after sunset which would be interesting).
As predicted.Ah, now we are in the clear slot. It took us 75% of the day to get here, but now the destabilization really starts.
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 587
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.www.spc.noaa.gov
SPC is putting a 95% chance that we will need a tornado watch from west/central Iowa down into Kansas, so there is a lot of confidence there will be some storms over here.
National Weather Service
NWS Des Moines recently predicted that southern Iowa into Missouri might be our best bet for storms due to the best forcing there (which was supported in a number of recent HRRR runs), and it's quite possible Ames/Des Moines will thread the needle between the madness north of I-20 and a few supercells in the Iowa/Missouri border.
Those probabilities were a little higher than I thought TBH:
YOLO time I guess.
Probabilities for the May 21, 2024 watch were 90/80: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2024/ww0277.html, while probabilities for the March 31, 2023 watch were >95/90 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2023/ww0093.html, just for comparison.
YOLO time I guess.
Probabilities for the May 21, 2024 watch were 90/80: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2024/ww0277.html, while probabilities for the March 31, 2023 watch were >95/90 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2023/ww0093.html, just for comparison.
There is a tornado box that started just SW of Fairmont Minnesota. That box is moving NW towards the Mankato area. The box is at least 30 minutes old.
It’s Frankie. Originally from Nova Scotia but now in Hollywood.
BTW, he also does dance moves. And here is the new touchdown video.
The storm mode to the north has gone mostly linear, which is starting to reduce the tornadic threat up there.
Eyes are now starting to fall to the southern tornado watch area, extending from I-30 in Iowa down to central Kansas. A few storms have initiated on the dryline, though a bit further south than what earlier models suggested just west of Manhattan, Kansas. They will be moving ENE likely into Missouri/southern Iowa.
This region is likely to see a more discrete mode and right during the peak of this tornado threat at 6-9pm. More storm development is possible north along the dryline to the western edge of the Tornado Watch zone. Central IA is now entering the most dangerous phase of this severe weather setup.
Eyes are now starting to fall to the southern tornado watch area, extending from I-30 in Iowa down to central Kansas. A few storms have initiated on the dryline, though a bit further south than what earlier models suggested just west of Manhattan, Kansas. They will be moving ENE likely into Missouri/southern Iowa.
This region is likely to see a more discrete mode and right during the peak of this tornado threat at 6-9pm. More storm development is possible north along the dryline to the western edge of the Tornado Watch zone. Central IA is now entering the most dangerous phase of this severe weather setup.
