You could just not pay attention to it. So far they seemed to have done a good job with this one.
***Official 2025 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter wxman1
- Start date
Maybe it's my not understanding what "enhanced", "moderate" and "high" risk means? 2 days ago the whole state was enhanced and moderate risk and you said that high risk wasn't a stretch.
But they didn't. If you listened and read, you'd know exactly what they were predicting.
High risk doesn't mean that it is a certainty that a certain area will have severe weather.
The moderate risk area then, and where it was left today was at the top end for tornadoes. One click more and it would have been high, and with 2 days to go, not a stretch. But that sword cuts the other way too if things don't eventually line up. (Area could grow, or shrink, or have one part downgraded, and the other half upgrade).
Think about it this way. Today's enhanced risk had 15% chance of an EF2-5 tornado within 25 miles of a point (DSM or Ames).
That's really dang high. How many days in your life have you been within 25 miles of an EF2-5?
That also means there's still an 85% chance there won't be a tornado within 25 miles of you.
No, but it seems like it’ll be a middle of the night thing. So, at least we’ll be killed in our sleep, which is considerate of Mother Nature.
A reminder, Twister's plot about finding an early detection/warning system for Tornadoes. And now that we have that, some of you think we shouldn't use it. You are science illiterate.
All these extra models etc... when I want a forecast I just go to NOAA and type in the name of the town or the zip code. It doesn't have the hype of all this other stuff, but it usually is pretty accurate at least for now.
Then just go there and get that forecast. There are a lot of us who a super interested in the nuts and bolts of what goes into it and the nuances of it.
Don't spoil out for the rest of us by complaining about it. Just ignore this thread.
To be fair to the meteorologists. Most had a big caveat that it might be a "bust" of a day. So much that KWWL had a boom or bust graphic explaining why each might take place. Brandon Libby said that a bunch of people could be upset with him. I'd rather know the potential is there and understand the uncertainty.
Have a feeling things are going to get going just west of DSM in the next hour. Don't know how bad but with an untouched atmosphere.......who knows.
What's interesting is what is happening up in the Sioux land. Very dry air but getting some pretty good hailers. Strong cold front.
What's interesting is what is happening up in the Sioux land. Very dry air but getting some pretty good hailers. Strong cold front.
I think if you wanted to hear hype you heard it. But if you actually listened to it and more importantly read about it, you knew exactly what the forecast meant.
