That's fair, I appreciate the clarification. So do you think Iowa State just isn't very deserving of a 2 seed, or hasn't had many opportunities to prove themselves, in hindsight (or both, I guess)? I'm genuinely curious. The former is just hard for me to wrap my head around, given they look better than last year's team and have a way better offensive efficiency rating to go along with top-tier defense
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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The argument against ISU is that there's only one really good win away from Hilton. Which is mostly because Dayton, Colorado and Iowa have all **** the bed. Other that TTU, our only Quad 1 wins away from Hilton are Iowa and ASU, and they are both right on the border of being Q2.
It's not really a valid argument because the teams we're up against for a 2-seed all have flaws too, but that's the argument that'll be used
We're on the 2/3 line right now I would say.
Still plenty of games to be played to see which way we should fall.
The Houston game tomorrow looms very large.
But I don't think we should get outstanding credit for winning a game earlier against a team that fades over time. The opposite is true, too -- the win at Texas Tech is looking stronger and stronger.
Heck, even the home loss against K-State doesn't look *quite* as bad as it once did.
Even if it is still pretty bad.
I think Houston will be a 1 unless they slide to end the year. I really don't think that the third place SEC team is going to get or deserve the nod over them.
I will add the other argument is Iowa State has the worst loss out of the group as well.
While this is true, there is a big difference between being a 2 and 3 seed for making the Final 4 historically and not as big of a difference between being a 3 or 4 seed.Curious so I looked it up. NCAA tournament champions by seed.
NCAA Tournament Championships by Seed
www.printyourbrackets.com
Huge drop from 1 to 2, very small drop from 2 to 3, another big drop from 3 to 4.
NCAA Final Four Appearances by Seed
While this is true, there is a big difference between being a 2 and 3 seed for making the Final 4 historically and not as big of a difference between being a 3 or 4 seed.
NCAA Final Four Appearances by Seed
Makes sense. A #4 runs into a #1 sooner.
No I'm surprised there isn't a very big difference between being a 3 and 4 seed and making the final four, but that there is a pretty big difference between being a 2 and a 3 seed.
What about a 3/4 seed that really is a two seed but their best shooter was hurt for a stretch and now two of their best players are missing for a game, maybe more?
It is in metrics like the NET Quad ratings. Some of ISU's "good" wins from early in the season have dropped significantly as those teams cratered.
I made this point in one of the premium threads, but these facts is part of the reason I have a "hot take" the team last year was better than this one. A lot of the early wins this team earned (Dayton, Colorado 3x, Marquette, Iowa, Kansas 1x, Arizona St., etc.) don't look nearly as good now as they did then.
I get they may not be as good as we thought from November through mid January. But last year's team also played no one in non-con, then got two cracks at each of Houston, BYU, and Kansas. not sure that résumé is better, other than they only got blown out once
Last year's group had a 'QB' type directing traffic from the middle of the defense and I'm not sure if this group has that type of thing.
Not an alpha type; just someone to pull everyone together or communicate directly.
Could very well be wrong but I just don't see communication being an obvious strength. That can make a difference when things aren't going well.
I stand corrected. but point was they had home opportunities against four of the top six in conference. It's not like they rolled through their schedule like Houston this year
Team last year was #5 on Torvik.
Team this year is #11 and who knows where it is going with a sick Jones and hobbled Gilbert.
Lipsey and his thumb is a ticking timebomb, too.
Both are objectively excellent college basketball teams. I don't think this team sucks.
But if you're splitting fine hairs... I think Big Rob's senior year might be slightly better. It was certainly more consistent and played better defense night in and night out than this team does.
It’s already factored in. Historically, there likely have been a lot of 4 seeds that should/could have been 3 seeds, and 3 seeds that could have been 2 seeds. In 2000, we were a 1 seed that got stuck as a 2 seed, and it likely cost us a Final 4.
Seeding matters. It is unfortunate that our resume looks “worse” every day.
Our bigs last year were just so damn good defensively. We miss all of them.
I agree. None of the three were particularly skilled or had outstanding size. Rob and Tre weren't exactly outstanding athletes, either, though Ward definitely had some ups and speed.
But they went to the mattresses every night fighting you on defense and the boards.
All three of them having more than one season in the program and the Big 12 helped, too.
I completely agree with that. I was talking more résumé/seeding, i.e., this year’s team could still be a 2 also (more likely before today’s news), despite more inconsistent and worse defense. cruel irony I guess, for three years we begged for more skill/offense, and now see big improvements in that area can magnify the impact of injuries
