There is no way Kentucky is ahead of us right now or in the future. I get they have good wins but just too many losses.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I'm down for as many interesting non-con matchups as we can have.
But it seems the era of conference challenges is coming to an end. I haven't heard any rumblings of one with the Big Ten, and we've seen ones with the SEC and the Big East recently sunset.
Iowa is hopefully sticking around. They're usually good enough to be Q2 at home and Q1 on the road.
Purdue is a great pickup. A+
...but, again, we're still two short. If we replace those two with Creighton and Missouri then **** yeah. But if we replace them with Chicago St. and Arkansas Pine Bluff then we have ourselves a problem.
I'm not sure there is an official reason.
Sounds like coaches complaining about having to squeeze in another road trip to a remote location (adding those western and eastern schools has made for a lot longer flights than what used to be mostly travel up and down the I-35 corridor and occasionally out to Morgantown) between January 1 and mid-March was a major factor. Which is stupid. Just play 2-4 conference games in mid-December or over break then.
Per Torvik
DEFAULT PROJECTION
Cleveland = #6 Tennessee / #8 Michigan St.
Denver = #9 Arizona / #12 Iowa St.
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama
Milwaukee = #7 Wisconsin / #10 Kentucky
Providence = #13 Purdue / #14 Missouri
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #3 Florida
Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Texas Tech
Wichita = #5 Houston / #11 Texas A&M
WIN OUT
Cleveland = #5 Tennessee / #9 Michigan St.
Denver = #10 Arizona / #13 Texas A&M
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama
Milwaukee = #6 Iowa St. / #8 Wisconsin
Providence = #12 Purdue / #14 Michigan
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #3 Florida
Seattle = #15 Missouri / #16 Texas Tech
Wichita = #7 Houston / #11 Kentucky
Milwaukee and Wichita are looking less and less likely without a win Saturday.
DEFAULT PROJECTION
Cleveland = #6 Tennessee / #8 Michigan St.
Denver = #9 Arizona / #12 Iowa St.
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama
Milwaukee = #7 Wisconsin / #10 Kentucky
Providence = #13 Purdue / #14 Missouri
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #3 Florida
Seattle = #15 Michigan / #16 Texas Tech
Wichita = #5 Houston / #11 Texas A&M
WIN OUT
Cleveland = #5 Tennessee / #9 Michigan St.
Denver = #10 Arizona / #13 Texas A&M
Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama
Milwaukee = #6 Iowa St. / #8 Wisconsin
Providence = #12 Purdue / #14 Michigan
Raleigh = #2 Duke / #3 Florida
Seattle = #15 Missouri / #16 Texas Tech
Wichita = #7 Houston / #11 Kentucky
Milwaukee and Wichita are looking less and less likely without a win Saturday.
Milwaukee would be preferred but give me Denver over Wichita. Easy and cheap flight from Des Moines or Minneapolis.
Denver > Milwaukee
Unless Wisconsin collapses, they will be in Milwaukee causing tickets to be high!
ISU would dominate and take over Denver, it's an easy but semi-long drive, multiple direct flights (DSM, Omaha, MSP, Eastern Iowa), and off days in Denver will be WAYYYYY more fun in Denver
Unless Wisconsin collapses, they will be in Milwaukee causing tickets to be high!
ISU would dominate and take over Denver, it's an easy but semi-long drive, multiple direct flights (DSM, Omaha, MSP, Eastern Iowa), and off days in Denver will be WAYYYYY more fun in Denver
The default Torvik model is probabilistic and projections allow partial wins.
We're technically projected to go 2.94-2.06 which rounds to 3-2.
I find predictive metrics so fascinating now with the committee giving us their top 16 weekly. Torvik seems to undervalue ISU by a spot or two based on their net and the actual committee seems to align more closely with net or even over-value. It would be interesting if someone started adding the committees weekly "bias" into their metrics to try and predict seeding. Based on the data we have between metrics and committee I'd believe we will be a 8 or 9 seed come end of the year.
I remember the last time Wisconsin played in Milwaukee for a NCAA tournament game...
Torvik uses a couple metrics to try and "guess" what the committee values.
NET = NCAA NET rating
ELO = Elo rating
RES = Resumé, essentially a summary of wins/losses by quadrant
WAB = Wins Above Bubble
POWER = I think this one is T-rank mixed with KenPom and BPI?
Which ones get weighted gets adjusted over time to better fit what the committee seems to be valuing.
Makes sense,
At this point they should just protect one or two rivalries and rotate the third. For example, ISU should be playing KU, KSU and CU home and away or something.
I remember the last time Wisconsin played in Milwaukee for a NCAA tournament game...
This WI team is definitely not that WI team.
Sure ISU could beat the current one but I had more confidence for ISU that year even with ISU's lack of offense etc. That WI team wasn't that good.
Why wouldn't Wichita be a drive. From Des Moines it's the same as Milwaukee
A "wild thing" that came to mind: Based on preseason projection/ranking, KU would've been a given for a slot in Wichita. Now, it's looking like 5/6 seed territory and won't be close to the area for first weekend.
I'm still in the camp football should have four "pods" of four protected rivals...
Western = Arizona, Arizona St., BYU, Utah
Central = Colorado, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.
Southern = Baylor, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech
Eastern = Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, West Virginia
Play your own pod (3 games). Play 2/4 of each of the other three pods (6 games).
3 + 6 = 9
For basketball, similar idea.
Own pod (home/home) = 6 games
Everybody else once = 12 games
If you really want 18, then stop there. If you want more, then randomly find two more games.
The path to a #1 seed is there should the Cyclones run the table, the Alabama loss yesterday is why I think strongly about this. Just such a strong conference that's going to vulture on even the best teams. I think Auburn could lose 2-3 more and still get a 1 seed and there will be more than likely another from the Florida/Alabama/Tennessee trio that gets the other 1 seed along with Duke so that leaves the 4th between Houston, Iowa State, 3rd SEC team (Missouri might be a dark horse) and ??? not much out there.
Who would get in over a 29-5 Iowa State team with one maybe two wins over Houston, Marquette, at Texas Tech, Arizona, BYU, Kansas, Baylor and other quality Big 12 tournament wins on an 11 game winning streak? Win the rest and I think a 1 seed is likely actually.
Who would get in over a 29-5 Iowa State team with one maybe two wins over Houston, Marquette, at Texas Tech, Arizona, BYU, Kansas, Baylor and other quality Big 12 tournament wins on an 11 game winning streak? Win the rest and I think a 1 seed is likely actually.
