2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[bawbie]

Team last year was #5 on Torvik.

Team this year is #11 and who knows where it is going with a sick Jones and hobbled Gilbert.

Lipsey and his thumb is a ticking timebomb, too.

Both are objectively excellent college basketball teams. I don't think this team sucks.

But if you're splitting fine hairs... I think Big Rob's senior year might be slightly better. It was certainly more consistent and played better defense night in and night out than this team does.

Last years team ended the year #8 in KenPom with the #52 offense and the #1 defense.

This years team is #9 with the #18 offense and #10 defense.

I think, objectively, they are similar quality teams but the improvement on the offensive end raises the ceiling (given historical trends).

I also don't think last year's team was a disappointment in any way If we end up in a coin flip 2/3 game in the Sweet 16 again, hopefully we pull it out, but those games go either way, it's just what happens and I'm glad we are in that position again

 

[Sigmapolis]

Last years team ended the year #8 in KenPom with the #52 offense and the #1 defense.

This years team is #9 with the #18 offense and #10 defense.

I think, objectively, they are similar quality teams but the improvement on the offensive end raises the ceiling (given historical trends).

I also don't think last year's team was a disappointment in any way If we end up in a coin flip 2/3 game in the Sweet 16 again, hopefully we pull it out, but those games go either way, it's just what happens and I'm glad we are in that position again

I think a team that was #5 on Torvik and #8 on KenPom to "only" make the Sweet Sixteen has to be at least a mild disappointment. They shoulda coulda beaten Illinois in Boston last year.

UConn probably runs them over but an Elite Eight would have been wonderful.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Prior to the Milan injury this years team was better and more consistent on Torvik than last years. The metrics for this year are somewhat being dragged down by the two terrible performances.

This year


Last year
playing a fair bit better than last years team on Torvik.

 

[clone4life82]

Our bigs last year were just so damn good defensively. We miss all of them.

Ward was the epitome of an eraser and Bob jones could guard just about anyone.

 

[not-the-manager]

Prior to the Milan injury this years team was better and more consistent on Torvik than last years. The metrics for this year are really being dragged down by the two terrible performances.

This year
View attachment 143688

Last year
View attachment 143687 playing a fair bit better than last years team on Torvik.

doing the Lord's work out here, thank you. very interesting

 

[cyclones500]

I think a team that was #5 on Torvik and #8 on KenPom to "only" make the Sweet Sixteen has to be at least a mild disappointment. They shoulda coulda beaten Illinois in Boston last year.

UConn probably runs them over but an Elite Eight would have been wonderful.

When I view last season in retrospect, that was a satisfying season, as good or better in most aspects than almost any since I've become a fan (4+ decades).

Not reaching Elite 8 as a 2 seed still is a bummer, but that's natural, we always remember exit from the tournament. I wish ISU could've gotten a better start to that game and see what happens.

Even throughout the season, only a few negative parts I recall, and most seem like afterthought:

* Losing both games in ESPN Events Invitational. With several roster changes, games early in the season, I don't think it was a shock to go 0-2. Probably got magnified resume-wise because those weren't quite as "high quality NET losses" as it appeared at the time.
* Getting clobbered at BYU.
* Losing at KSU.

Those are outweighed by numerous positive moments.

I won't attempt to assess 24-25 or compare the seasons until it concludes.

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

 

[NoCreativity]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but Marquette got blown out again tonight. Our resume is looking worse every week of the season.

 

[CychiatricWard]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but Marquette got blown out again tonight. Our resume is looking worse every week of the season.

Our resume is just fine. Chill out.

 

[NoCreativity]

Our resume is just fine. Chill out.

I didn't say it was bad, I said it's progressively getting weaker as the season is going along. Iowa, Dayton, Marquette, and Kansas just aren't very good.

 

[NATEizKING]

3 way tie for 8th, of course we would be listed 10 (and not alphabetical).

 

[Malone]

3 way tie for 8th, of course we would be listed 10 (and not alphabetical). View attachment 143770

Assume that the digits are carried on further than .71

 

[Cyhig]

3 way tie for 8th, of course we would be listed 10 (and not alphabetical). View attachment 143770

Not sure how Gonzaga is on this list

 

[dahliaclone]

#7 A&M losing twice this week
#9 Texas Tech losing to TCU

We lose at #5 short handed and were in it til the end.

We SHOULD stay #8. No reason to drop in fact could see us bump ahead of A&M.

Possible St. John’s moves up a few. But we will still be top ten.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

#7 A&M losing twice this week
#9 Texas Tech losing to TCU

We lose at #5 short handed and were in it til the end.

We SHOULD stay #8. No reason to drop in fact could see us bump ahead of A&M.

Possible St. John’s moves up a few. But we will still be top ten.

Michigan State and Missouri (pending tonight's game) could be two with the potential to move past us in the ranking after big weeks IMO

 

[dahliaclone]

Michigan State and Missouri (pending tonight's game) could be two with the potential to move past us in the ranking after big weeks IMO

If either of them move from their current rankings of 14 and 15 to 8th or better that’s crazy regardless of having good weeks. That’s massive jumps.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

If either of them move from their current rankings of 14 and 15 to 8th or better that’s crazy regardless of having good weeks. That’s massive jumps.

Yeah, you're right, those would be big jumps. Don't think I see it for Missouri, but MSU with two top 15 wins will have them moving up. Plus, I don't trust those freaking AP voters

 

[cyclones500]

Michigan State and Missouri (pending tonight's game) could be two with the potential to move past us in the ranking after big weeks IMO

MSU's wins definitely boost tournament profile.

But if we're talking AP top 25, #14 MSU defeated #13 Purdue and won at #12 U-M. A significant number of voters would have to reverse-engineer that they had placed those teams far too low the previous week. (And yes, some voters will do such a thing).

Missouri will get some boost from beating Alabama. Missouri was 460 points behind ISU.

ISU was about 300 points ahead of MSU, won a game and lost at #5.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[AlaCyclone]

Well the Big 10 and the MVC are a lot different in competition I will say that. They probably wouldn't be that far off if you gave Iowa Drake's schedule. I do think Drake is better than Iowa but I think they'd be a decent matchup.

Also, winning puts butts in seats. It doesn't matter how you do it.

If Drake doesn't make the NCAA Tourney, I'd love to see a Drake vs. Iowa N.I.T. match-up @ Wells Fargo Arena which would be a much better attended game than a game @ CHA.