I've been playing with mred's generator, and we would need more than K State to beat TX. That alone would have OU-Okie State in the ship. I think we would need two out of OU/OSU/TX to lose at least 1 more each. Also works if any one of those lose 2 more. We could lose to TX, beat WVU, and be in.
mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator
Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakersbball.notnothing.net
That must have changed, because before all you had to change was have KSU winning.
My guess is that there was a change in the favorite for KSU-Baylor. Because if KSU beats baylor and Texas, we're in even if OU\OSU\UT otherwise win out.