2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

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Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
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Chicagoland
Hey, y'all. I've done this the past three years, and we're far enough into the season (and Iowa State's doing well enough!) that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Iowa St.: 47.9% (26.6% 1st, 21.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.1% (27.1% 1st, 19.0% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 42.7% (22.7% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 16.4% (6.9% 1st, 9.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 15.8% (5.8% 1st, 10.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 14.4% (6.2% 1st, 8.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 11.8% (3.5% 1st, 8.3% 2nd)
TCU: 4.8% (1.2% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: c'mon

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 2% chance of happening:

Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 15.6%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 14.8%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 13.3%
Oklahoma St./West Virginia: 5.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 4.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 4.2%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.9%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.8%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 3.7%
Kansas St./Texas: 3.6%
Baylor/Kansas St.: 3.3%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 3.3%
Kansas St./West Virginia: 3.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.3%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 99.3% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
3-7: 0.8%
4-6: 7.0%
5-5: 21.6%
6-4: 32.7%
7-3: 26.0%
8-2: 10.3%
9-1: 1.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.8%
6-4: 35.0%
7-3: 93.9%
8-2: 100.0%
9-1: 100.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.
 

JH4ISU

Member
Mar 27, 2006
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Des Moines, IA
Thanks for the info and thread!

If I'm reading the ISU record chances correctly, the model says there is a >60% chance we go 3-3 or worse the rest of the way out? That is surprising.
 

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
234
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Chicagoland
What would the odds be if we beat OSU this weekend? Has to be astronomical for us at this point right?
Iowa St.: 72.3% (49.4% 1st, 22.9% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 43.1% (21.6% 1st, 21.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 23.2% (7.1% 1st, 16.1% 2nd)

And if the Cyclones lose:

Oklahoma St.: 57.7% (37.7% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 42.3% (23.1% 1st, 19.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 36.0% (14.9% 1st, 21.0% 2nd)

Massey expects us to lose to OSU, so that's already baked in to our 47.9% — that's why ISU isn't dropping with a loss as much as Oklahoma State does.
 

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
234
679
93
Chicagoland
Thanks for the info and thread!

If I'm reading the ISU record chances correctly, the model says there is a >60% chance we go 3-3 or worse the rest of the way out? That is surprising.
Massey has ISU as underdogs @OSU and @texas and not as huge favorites in any of the other games (except Kansas). 3-3 makes sense to me as the modal case.
 
Last edited:

dualthreat

Well-Known Member
Oct 8, 2008
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What will really make things interesting tie-breaker wise is when teams start cancelling games due to covid, instead of rescheduling them.

For instance, 5-1 Baylor or 7-2 Iowa State?
 

Busch__Latte

Active Member
Sep 17, 2020
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Interesting that Texas has a better chance than OU. Texas still needs KSU, OSU and ISU
 

Busch__Latte

Active Member
Sep 17, 2020
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What will really make things interesting tie-breaker wise is when teams start cancelling games due to covid, instead of rescheduling them.

For instance, 5-1 Baylor or 7-2 Iowa State?
Baylor L, because they couldn't control it.
 

Urbandale2013

Well-Known Member
Jan 28, 2018
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What will really make things interesting tie-breaker wise is when teams start cancelling games due to covid, instead of rescheduling them.

For instance, 5-1 Baylor or 7-2 Iowa State?
Have they said what they would do? In big enough schedules you should use winning percentage but that wouldn’t make sense here. Say Baylor was 5-1 avoiding Iowa State, OSU, and OU. Then you have Iowa State at 6-2. I think it is obvious in that scenario that you put Iowa State in.
 

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
234
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Chicagoland
What will really make things interesting tie-breaker wise is when teams start cancelling games due to covid, instead of rescheduling them.

For instance, 5-1 Baylor or 7-2 Iowa State?
According to the official Big 12 tiebreaker procedures, "The two teams that complete the regular season with the highest winning percentage(s) will be the representatives in the Conference Championship Game" [emphasis mine]. So in that case, it'd be Baylor at .833 over Iowa State at .778.
 

dualthreat

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Oct 8, 2008
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According to the official Big 12 tiebreaker procedures, "The two teams that complete the regular season with the highest winning percentage(s) will be the representatives in the Conference Championship Game" [emphasis mine]. So in that case, it'd be Baylor at .833 over Iowa State at .778.
Sounds like we ought to shut er down now

3-0 100%
 

ClonesFTW

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Nov 13, 2013
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Oddsmakers still have Oklahoma as the betting favorite to win the Big 12 at +150, we are sitting at +350 on Draft Kings today.
 
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Pat

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Oct 20, 2011
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Oddsmakers still have Oklahoma as the betting favorite to win the Big 12 at +150, we are sitting at +350 on Draft Kings today.
I don’t gamble, but am I insane to think that equal bets in ISU (+350), OSU (+350), and KSU (+900) is about as close as one could get to “safe” profit?
 
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surly

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May 16, 2013
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I don’t gamble, but am I insane to think that equal bets in ISU (+350), OSU (+350), and KSU (+900) is about as close as one could get to “safe” profit?
If you bet $100 on each, you'd be assured a minimum $50 profit assuming one of the three wins it.