2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[alarson]

I've been playing with mred's generator, and we would need more than K State to beat TX. That alone would have OU-Okie State in the ship. I think we would need two out of OU/OSU/TX to lose at least 1 more each. Also works if any one of those lose 2 more. We could lose to TX, beat WVU, and be in.

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

That must have changed, because before all you had to change was have KSU winning.

My guess is that there was a change in the favorite for KSU-Baylor. Because if KSU beats baylor and Texas, we're in even if OU\OSU\UT otherwise win out.

 

[cyclones500]

Messing around w/ mred generator, the following scenario is possible, although extremely unrealistic and improbable.

1. Iowa St (8-1)
2. W Virginia (5-4) Defeated Kansas St and Oklahoma based on round-robin record (2-0).
3. Kansas St (5-4) Defeated Oklahoma and lost to W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Oklahoma (5-4) Lost to W Virginia and Kansas St based on round-robin record (0-2).
5. TCU (4-5) Defeated Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St based on round-robin record (4-0).
6. Texas (4-5) Defeated Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St and lost to TCU based on round-robin record (3-1).
7. Texas Tech (4-5) Defeated Baylor and Okla St and lost to TCU and Texas based on round-robin record (2-2).
8. Baylor (4-5) Defeated Okla St and lost to TCU, Texas, and Texas Tech based on round-robin record (1-3).
9. Okla St (4-5) Lost to TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor based on round-robin record (0-4).
10. Kansas (2-7)

 

[jctisu]

Messing around w/ mred generator, the following scenario is possible, although extremely unrealistic and improbable.

1. Iowa St (8-1)
2. W Virginia (5-4) Defeated Kansas St and Oklahoma based on round-robin record (2-0).
3. Kansas St (5-4) Defeated Oklahoma and lost to W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Oklahoma (5-4) Lost to W Virginia and Kansas St based on round-robin record (0-2).
5. TCU (4-5) Defeated Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St based on round-robin record (4-0).
6. Texas (4-5) Defeated Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St and lost to TCU based on round-robin record (3-1).
7. Texas Tech (4-5) Defeated Baylor and Okla St and lost to TCU and Texas based on round-robin record (2-2).
8. Baylor (4-5) Defeated Okla St and lost to TCU, Texas, and Texas Tech based on round-robin record (1-3).
9. Okla St (4-5) Lost to TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor based on round-robin record (0-4).
10. Kansas (2-7)

Like you said no way in hell does that happen, but talk about the craziest of all turn of events. With a couple of weeks to go, all the national heads are talking OU being in with the way they look, but who will play them? Iowa State or Texas (with OSU having an outside shot)? Then this happens hahahahahaha!

 

[JM4CY]

People that are pooping their pants about a rematch with OU need to rewatch our game with them. We played far from perfect and just not good in many facets. Campbell said so as well right after the game. We more than have the ability to take them down again.

 

[bthebutcher]

Yeah, no problem with sharing. I'm a hobbiest programmer, so apologies for anything that's not commented well enough to understand. Both in Python 3 — I just had to change the extensions to attach it here. The first imports the data from Massey and puts it in a friendly format; the second does all the fun stuff.

Wow, thanks! Happy Thanksgiving good sir!

 

[cstrunk]

People that are pooping their pants about a rematch with OU need to rewatch our game with them. We played far from perfect and just not good in many facets. Campbell said so as well right after the game. We more than have the ability to take them down again.

Exactly. We already beat them. We can do it again.

 

[CySmurf]

Yes, we can beat them again...but let's beat Texas first...

 

[Cycsk]

Messing around w/ mred generator, the following scenario is possible, although extremely unrealistic and improbable.

1. Iowa St (8-1)
2. W Virginia (5-4) Defeated Kansas St and Oklahoma based on round-robin record (2-0).
3. Kansas St (5-4) Defeated Oklahoma and lost to W Virginia based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Oklahoma (5-4) Lost to W Virginia and Kansas St based on round-robin record (0-2).
5. TCU (4-5) Defeated Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St based on round-robin record (4-0).
6. Texas (4-5) Defeated Texas Tech, Baylor, and Okla St and lost to TCU based on round-robin record (3-1).
7. Texas Tech (4-5) Defeated Baylor and Okla St and lost to TCU and Texas based on round-robin record (2-2).
8. Baylor (4-5) Defeated Okla St and lost to TCU, Texas, and Texas Tech based on round-robin record (1-3).
9. Okla St (4-5) Lost to TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor based on round-robin record (0-4).
10. Kansas (2-7)

Most unbelievable part of your post? Kansas with 2 wins! Undermines the whole scenario.

 

[Dale]

Post ISU-Texas update:

Iowa St.: 99.9% (96.5% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 77.4% (0.1% 1st, 77.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 14.3% (3.5% 1st, 10.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.4% (0.0% 1st, 3.4% 2nd)
Texas: 3.2% (0.0% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 1.8% (0.0% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
Everyone else: Nope

Possible matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 77.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 14.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 1.8%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 0.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-3: 99.7%
8-2: 100.0%

 

[Cy$]

Post ISU-Texas update:

Iowa St.: 99.9% (96.5% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 77.4% (0.1% 1st, 77.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 14.3% (3.5% 1st, 10.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.4% (0.0% 1st, 3.4% 2nd)
Texas: 3.2% (0.0% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 1.8% (0.0% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
Everyone else: Nope

Possible matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 77.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 14.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 1.8%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 0.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
9-3: 99.7%
10-2: 100.0%

whats the scenario that keeps them out?

 

[bosco]

Post ISU-Texas update:

Iowa St.: 99.9% (96.5% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 77.4% (0.1% 1st, 77.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 14.3% (3.5% 1st, 10.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.4% (0.0% 1st, 3.4% 2nd)
Texas: 3.2% (0.0% 1st, 3.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 1.8% (0.0% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)
Everyone else: Nope

Possible matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 77.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 14.2%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 3.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 1.8%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 0.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
9-3: 99.7%
10-2: 100.0%

 

[BigJCy]

So do we cheer for West Virginia to beat Oklahoma and have Okie State win out?

Would like that match-up best

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I don't care who we play. I want blood.

 

[Scruff]

I think we can put the computers away. Dallas is ours!

 

[alarson]

whats the scenario that keeps them out?

I'm not sure how things are looking as far as scoring differential tiebreakers but this

led to this

 

[Dale]

whats the scenario that keeps them out?

• West Virginia beats Iowa State.
• OU and OSU win out.
• Baylor beats KSU.
• Kansas State and Kansas beat Texas. (Or as mred mentioned earlier on this thread, Kansas/Texas being cancelled can replace the improbable Kansas beating Texas.)

 

[dafarmer]

Will OU be over their quarantine, or will the BIG XII give them the title, They have 2 games left.

 

[CyArob]

• West Virginia beats Iowa State.
• OU and OSU win out.
• Baylor beats KSU.
• Kansas State and Kansas beat Texas. (Or as mred mentioned earlier on this thread, Kansas/Texas being cancelled can replace the improbable Kansas beating Texas.)

So cheer for Texas

 

[bosco]

• West Virginia beats Iowa State.
• OU and OSU win out.
• Baylor beats KSU.
• Kansas State and Kansas beat Texas. (Or as mred mentioned earlier on this thread, Kansas/Texas being cancelled can replace the improbable Kansas beating Texas.)

Um, this doesn't seem to far fetched considering if KU game gets cancelled.

 

[BigJCy]

Um, this doesn't seem to far fetched considering if KU game gets cancelled.

Was thinking the exact same thing.

Hoping we don't have a letdown next week.