Call me old fashioned but I would have some reservations about starting up a private information exchange with a guy named b the butcherThis is really awesome stuff. Would you be willing to share your code? Either publicly (e.g. GitHub) or privately? I'm a professional statistician and just very curious
2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
So if we beat Texas on friday, I can start booking my trip to Dallas?
This is really awesome stuff. Would you be willing to share your code? Either publicly (e.g. GitHub) or privately? I'm a professional statistician and just very curious
Yeah, no problem with sharing. I'm a hobbiest programmer, so apologies for anything that's not commented well enough to understand. Both in Python 3 — I just had to change the extensions to attach it here. The first imports the data from Massey and puts it in a friendly format; the second does all the fun stuff.
Great stuff, Dale! Only now, did I find your thread.
I calculated the exact probabilities for match-ups in the Big 12 Title Game ... given ESPN FPI game-by-game probabilities, which are questionable. For tie-breaks, I used the first criteria in all instances and completed the second criteria in most of the remaining cases. The probabilities (given FPI inputs) for the Title Game match-ups are:
Again, these are given FPI inputs, which favor tu.
I calculated the exact probabilities for match-ups in the Big 12 Title Game ... given ESPN FPI game-by-game probabilities, which are questionable. For tie-breaks, I used the first criteria in all instances and completed the second criteria in most of the remaining cases. The probabilities (given FPI inputs) for the Title Game match-ups are:
| OU v. tu | .26414151123 |
| ISU v. OU | .22974061924 |
| OSU v. tu | .13629413848 |
| ISU v. OSU | .10576169191 |
| ISU-OU-tu Tie Break | .09152972483 |
| ISU v. Three-Loss Team | .03908128362 |
| ISU v. tu | .03706297048 |
| OU v. OSU | .03274259946 |
| OU v. Three-Loss Team | .02667743446 |
| tu v. Three-Loss Team | .01817245498 |
| OSU v. Three-Loss Team | .01337509544 |
| Two 3-Loss Teams | .00542047586 |
Again, these are given FPI inputs, which favor tu.
Breaking down conference championship races
A full breakdown of conference championship and divisional races in college football.247sports.com
Apparently ISU lost to Oklahoma according to this article, so the Sooners would own the tie breaker against the Cyclones.
I think they are saying that
If OU (7-2), then they beat OSU and ut in all three-way ties, probably playing ISU.
IF there is a four way tie, then tu > ISU. So OU is 2-1, tu is 2-1, ISU is 1-2, & OSU is 1-2 in the four-way round robin. Hope this helps.
RE: The article writes, 'Texas (4-2) is in if it wins the remainder of its games against Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas.'
RESP: Unless TCU is THE tie breaking team for an ISU-OU-tu tie, small probability.
I never thought Sig Figs were all that important throughout my engineering education but now here we are.
Really need Kansas St. to rise up and beat Texas if we aren't able to do it.
I've been playing with mred's generator, and we would need more than K State to beat TX. That alone would have OU-Okie State in the ship. I think we would need two out of OU/OSU/TX to lose at least 1 more each. Also works if any one of those lose 2 more. We could lose to TX, beat WVU, and be in.
mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator
Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
I agree. But I think there’s an infinitely better chance that we are the ones to do it.
Sure could see OSU dropping at least 2 of the final 3. Still, it's all about beating Texas...let's get it done!
At the time I posted the article the writer actually said Oklahoma holds the tie breaker over ISU due to the Sooners beating the Cyclones earlier in the year. He has since changed it though.
Why wait? United Airlines and most hotel chains have no cost cancellation policies. I booked mine for both possible weekends long ago.
LMAO, what is important is that there are no superfluous leading zeros.
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LMAO, what is important is that there are no superfluous leading zeros
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