2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

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mtowncyclone13

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All I want to know if why, when Iowa State needs a break, a team ahead of us won't drop one they should win. It seems like Iowa State is in the race and drops one but people ahead of us never do.

Edit. We have the toughest remaining schedule of any team left. Our opponents have 11 wins. Texas opponent 9 wins. OU/OSU each 8 wins
 
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VeloClone

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All I want to know if why, when Iowa State needs a break, a team ahead of us won't drop one they should win. It seems like Iowa State is in the race and drops one but people ahead of us never do.

Edit. We have the toughest remaining schedule of any team left. Our opponents have 11 wins. Texas opponent 9 wins. OU/OSU each 8 wins
OSU has OU(4), TCU(3), Tech(1) and BU(1) which add up to 9. Did you forget the Baylor make up game? And 3 of the 4 are on the road.

KSU's remaining opponents have 10 wins.

While the toughest remaining schedule, ISU (and OSU) can afford to drop one remaining game while KSU, UT and OU are virtually done if they drop one more. Since Texas and KSU face each other one of them is guaranteed to drop one more game.
 
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VeloClone

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I just want us to win our three remaining games. It then leaves no doubt we deserve to the in the Championship Game. I don't want to back into the game.
If ISU goes 2-1 in their remaining games to finish 7-2 in the conference I don't think anyone would be able to make a legitimate case that ISU didn't deserve to be in the CCG.

7-2 ISU losses: OSU and (WVU, KSU or UT)*
8-1 or 7-2 OSU losses: UT (and ?)
7-2 OU losses: ISU and KSU
7-2 UT losses: OU and TCU
7-2 KSU losses: OSU and WVU

*[didn't lose to any team with fewer than 4 conference wins]
 

bozclone

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If ISU goes 2-1 in their remaining games to finish 7-2 in the conference I don't think anyone would be able to make a legitimate case that ISU didn't deserve to be in the CCG.

7-2 ISU losses: OSU and (WVU, KSU or UT)*
8-1 or 7-2 OSU losses: UT (and ?)
7-2 OU losses: ISU and KSU
7-2 UT losses: OU and TCU
7-2 KSU losses: OSU and WVU

*[didn't lose to any team with fewer than 4 conference wins]
I wish that was true. If OU and Iowa State both finish 7-2, everyone will be talking about how much better OU is playing right now than when we played them. Also if it is OSU, they can always point to the fact they beat us.

Really, I was just thinking about how it is so Iowa State for us to be figuring out how we can slide into the game with another loss instead of talking about what happens if we run the table. I just want to leave no doubt that we are deserving of playing for the Championship. We are as good as any team in the league this year, we just need to prove it.
 

VeloClone

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I wish that was true. If OU and Iowa State both finish 7-2, everyone will be talking about how much better OU is playing right now than when we played them. Also if it is OSU, they can always point to the fact they beat us.

Really, I was just thinking about how it is so Iowa State for us to be figuring out how we can slide into the game with another loss instead of talking about what happens if we run the table. I just want to leave no doubt that we are deserving of playing for the Championship. We are as good as any team in the league this year, we just need to prove it.
I did say legitimate case. People will always try to make a case that fits their agenda. Take the 'Ohio State deserves to be in the playoff because all of their games were against top 60 teams' case. I have never heard a more contrived argument than that. That doesn't mean it is a legitimate case.

Everyone would love for ISU to win out and get in. But they have a tough row to hoe and it shouldn't detract from what they have done thus far - putting at least a game between themselves and every team but one in the conference. They have given themselves a margin for error going forward. Pretty much all of those other teams have put themselves in a situation where they pretty much have to win out.
 
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Jerms

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Do the games this weekend have any impact on our odds whatsoever? Pretty blah games and curious to know if I should cheer for a certain outcome if it might help us in some tiebreaker scenario. Otherwise I’ll cheer for Baylor to lose just because.
 

CyGuy5

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Do the games this weekend have any impact on our odds whatsoever? Pretty blah games and curious to know if I should cheer for a certain outcome if it might help us in some tiebreaker scenario. Otherwise I’ll cheer for Baylor to lose just because.
I think we want WV to lose just so they don’t have anything to play for when they meet us, but I could be totally wrong
 
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Cycsk

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Cyclones now north of 50/50 to make the championship game:

Iowa St.: 54.1% (33.3% 1st, 20.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 42.7% (16.5% 1st, 26.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 41.3% (21.1% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 40.1% (21.7% 1st, 18.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 17.0% (6.6% 1st, 10.4% 2nd)
West Virginia: 2.5% (0.6% 1st, 1.9% 2nd)
TCU: 2.3% (0.1% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor, TT, Kansas: c'mon

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 22.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 17.1%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 15.4%
Oklahoma/Texas: 12.9%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 4.9%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 4.5%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.5%

ISU record chances:
5-5: 9.5%
6-4: 35.7%
7-3: 41.1%
8-2: 13.7%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.0%
6-4: 17.9%
7-3: 82.8%
8-2: 100.0%

@ChrisMWilliams @JaredStansbury

Dale's work needs to be more prominent on the site. Perhaps it could be made into a weekly CF article (or at least included in one by CF staff).

The data is really interesting, but tough to find when the weekly update gets buried in a long thread.

@Dale

Or Dale could just start a new thread each week so that his data is always at the top of the most recent thread.

Personally, I like the idea of there being one thread, but to have the data posted as a weekly article and/or referenced in a weekly article.

Dale is the Jay Jordan of statistics.
 

Dale

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As expected, no one moves more than a few percent this week. ISU still the most likely team to make the championship, although it's really four teams chasing the two slots.

Iowa St.: 50.8% (31.1% 1st, 19.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 44.9% (22.4% 1st, 22.6% 2nd)
Texas: 43.4% (22.3% 1st, 21.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 40.9% (17.3% 1st, 23.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 15.2% (5.8% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)
West Virginia: 4.7% (1.2% 1st, 3.5% 2nd)
everyone else: 0.0%

Most likely championship games:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 19.6%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 18.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 17.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 14.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.2%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 4.6%

ISU record chances:
5-5: 9.6%
6-4: 35.9%
7-3: 40.9%
8-2: 13.5%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-4: 11.2%
7-3: 81.3%
8-2: 100.0%
 

Dale

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Games remaining by week and their impact on ISU's odds:

November 21st:
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 39.1% (26.9% with a loss to 66.0% with a win)
Kansas over Texas: 8.2% (49.6% to 57.8%)
Oklahoma over Oklahoma St.: 2.4% (49.2% to 51.6%)

November 27th/28th:
Iowa St. over Texas: 57.0% (29.5% to 86.5%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.: 9.9% (48.6% to 58.5%)
Baylor over Kansas St.: 2.2% (49.4% to 51.6%)
West Virginia over Oklahoma: 1.5% (50.1% to 51.6%)
TCU over Kansas: 1.1% (49.9% to 51.0%)

December 5th:
Iowa St. over West Virginia: 33.8% (30.5% to 64.3%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 10.9% (45.5% to 56.4%)
Kansas St. over Texas: 9.4% (46.8% to 56.2%)
Baylor over Oklahoma: 6.6% (48.7% to 55.3%)
Kansas/Texas Tech: <1% impact

December 12th:
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 9.8% (46.1% to 55.9%)
 

Dale

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Update after Saturday's games. I think we all knew who the co-leaders would be.

Championship game odds:
Iowa St.: 70.1% (55.6% 1st, 14.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 67.4% (21.6% 1st, 45.9% 2nd)
Texas: 39.1% (17.7% 1st, 21.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 16.7% (4.6% 1st, 12.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 4.1% (0.5% 1st, 3.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.6% (0.0% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
everyone else: 0.0%

Most likely championship game matchups:

Iowa St./Oklahoma: 45.6%
Oklahoma/Texas: 19.3%
Iowa St./Texas: 11.9%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 8.4%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 5.6%

ISU record chances:
6-4: 19.5%
7-3: 53.2%
8-2: 27.3%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-4: 9.5%
7-3: 76.9%
8-2: 100.0%
 

Rogue52

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Update after Saturday's games. I think we all knew who the co-leaders would be.

Championship game odds:
Iowa St.: 70.1% (55.6% 1st, 14.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 67.4% (21.6% 1st, 45.9% 2nd)
Texas: 39.1% (17.7% 1st, 21.3% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 16.7% (4.6% 1st, 12.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 4.1% (0.5% 1st, 3.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.6% (0.0% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
everyone else: 0.0%

Most likely championship game matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 45.6%
Oklahoma/Texas: 19.3%
Iowa St./Texas: 11.9%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 8.4%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 5.6%

ISU record chances:
6-4: 19.5%
7-3: 53.2%
8-2: 27.3%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-4: 9.5%
7-3: 76.9%
8-2: 100.0%
People are saying a win over Texas gives Iowa State a 100% chance of a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Is it truly 100%? Or is there some weird tiebreaker scenario that happens with a loss to WVU and some other screwy wins/losses by other teams?
 

Dale

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Splits for ISU's four remaining scenarios:

Win both: 100%
Beat Texas, lose to WV: 98.9%
Lose to Texas, beat WV: 69.5%
Lose both: 9.5%

These are all assuming all scoring differential tiebreakers are decided by coinflip (because my program isn't smart enough to project them). That happens a little over 1 percent of the time right now.
 

Cyclonepride

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People are saying a win over Texas gives Iowa State a 100% chance of a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Is it truly 100%? Or is there some weird tiebreaker scenario that happens with a loss to WVU and some other screwy wins/losses by other teams?
Of the teams that could conceivably tie us, we'd hold the head to head on UT and OU, and OSU has the head to head against us, so I think it is 100%.
 
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MrTippet

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How is Kansas State favored over Texas?

Edit: nevermind I was reading it wrong. I don't see ISU any higher that 50/50 shot at the championship right now. Texas seems too low in your rankings.
 
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Dale

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People are saying a win over Texas gives Iowa State a 100% chance of a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Is it truly 100%? Or is there some weird tiebreaker scenario that happens with a loss to WVU and some other screwy wins/losses by other teams?
It is not actually 100 percent.

I double-checked this with mred's 2020 Big 12 FB Standings Tiebreaker:
  • OU and OSU win out.
  • Baylor beats KSU.
  • Kansas State and Kansas (!) beat Texas.
Then West Virginia and Kansas State (and importantly, no one else) end up both at 5-4, with West Virginia winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. ISU's eliminated from the number 1 seed battle by losing to WV when OU and OSU beat them; OU beat OSU, so they get the number 1 seed. OSU beat ISU, so they get the number 2 seed. ISU's left in the cold.
 
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Dale

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I changed my code to correctly break the scoring differential tiebreaker between ISU/OU/OSU instead of flipping a coin, since we now know ISU and OU win that tiebreaker at 1st and 2nd respectively.

Instead of ISU's odds if they beat Texas and lose to WV being 98.9%, they're actually 99.7%.