2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

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Omaha Cy

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I changed my code to correctly break the scoring differential tiebreaker between ISU/OU/OSU instead of flipping a coin, since we now know ISU and OU win that tiebreaker at 1st and 2nd respectively.

Instead of ISU's odds if they beat Texas and lose to WV being 98.9%, they're actually 99.7%.
My head is swimming. What happens if ISU, OU, OSU, and UT all finish 7-2?
Basically that would mean ISU lost to UT and everyone else won out.
 

cyfanbr

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Dec 13, 2013
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How is Kansas State favored over Texas?

Edit: nevermind I was reading it wrong. I don't see ISU any higher that 50/50 shot at the championship right now. Texas seems too low in your rankings.
You realize his ranking just uses data from Massey’s ranking right? No “I feels” or “I thinks” just data.
 

Dale

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My head is swimming. What happens if ISU, OU, OSU, and UT all finish 7-2?
Basically that would mean ISU lost to UT and everyone else won out.
Oklahoma gets the number 1 seed based on four-way round-robin and head-to-head win over Texas. Texas gets the number 2 seed with wins over OSU and ISU.
 

AuH2O

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Still not buying the odds for ISU making the title game with a loss to Texas. It can’t be right. It would require 2/3 of UT, OU and OSU to drop another game. Looking at the scheduled remaining that isn’t happening.
 

Omaha Cy

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Still not buying the odds for ISU making the title game with a loss to Texas. It can’t be right. It would require 2/3 of UT, OU and OSU to drop another game. Looking at the scheduled remaining that isn’t happening.
We'd need to hope that the couch burning in Morgantown is extra strong when OU goes there, KSU gets over Covid quarantine in time to beat UT, or OSU drops a favored game vs Tech or TCU.

Must beat UT!
 

ClonesFTW

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Apparently those oddsmakers who still had Oklahoma as the B12 favorite immediately after their 2nd loss knew what they were doing.
 
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AuH2O

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Was really hoping for a rematch vs OSU. I will not be surprised to see TCU beat them. They are beat up and are all but out of the conference title game.
 

KennyPratt42

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Still not buying the odds for ISU making the title game with a loss to Texas. It can’t be right. It would require 2/3 of UT, OU and OSU to drop another game. Looking at the scheduled remaining that isn’t happening.
Not quite true, the most likely scenario to get in with a Texas loss and WV win is if K-State beats Texas and those three win all other games. That results in this:

1. Okla St (7 - 2) With Iowa St, defeated Oklahoma based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (1-0). Defeated Iowa St based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Iowa St (7 - 2) With Okla St, defeated Oklahoma based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (1-0). Lost to Okla St based on head-to-head record (0-1). Defeated Oklahoma based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Oklahoma (7 - 2) Lost to Okla St and Iowa St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (0-1). Lost to Iowa St based on head-to-head record (0-1).
 

trevn

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As bad as OSU looked last night, it wouldn't surprise me to see them drop a couple games. They have a ton of injuries. I could see a scenario where they fall below 4th which would change some tiebreakers.
 

mred

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It is not actually 100 percent.

I double-checked this with mred's 2020 Big 12 FB Standings Tiebreaker:
  • OU and OSU win out.
  • Baylor beats KSU.
  • Kansas State and Kansas (!) beat Texas.
Then West Virginia and Kansas State (and importantly, no one else) end up both at 5-4, with West Virginia winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. ISU's eliminated from the number 1 seed battle by losing to WV when OU and OSU beat them; OU beat OSU, so they get the number 1 seed. OSU beat ISU, so they get the number 2 seed. ISU's left in the cold.
This was the single scenario I saw when I was looking last night. But here's the one thing that makes this remotely possible: the same result can be achieved if all the above happens except the Texas/Kansas game is cancelled. Texas would be 4-4, which puts them below the 5-4 teams when doing that aspect of the tiebreaker, so the logic ends up being the same.

My tiebreaker is not set up to handle missing games -- it gets kind of complicated because the tiebreaker that looks at round robin record top-to-bottom orders the teams by winning percentage, but the actual ranking of teams is based on how many losses you have.
 
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Hoggins

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Not quite true, the most likely scenario to get in with a Texas loss and WV win is if K-State beats Texas and those three win all other games. That results in this:

1. Okla St (7 - 2) With Iowa St, defeated Oklahoma based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (1-0). Defeated Iowa St based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Iowa St (7 - 2) With Okla St, defeated Oklahoma based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (1-0). Lost to Okla St based on head-to-head record (0-1). Defeated Oklahoma based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Oklahoma (7 - 2) Lost to Okla St and Iowa St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [Kansas St] (0-1). Lost to Iowa St based on head-to-head record (0-1).
KSU has to beat Baylor and Texas for that scenario. It’s possible
 

KennyPratt42

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As bad as OSU looked last night, it wouldn't surprise me to see them drop a couple games. They have a ton of injuries. I could see a scenario where they fall below 4th which would change some tiebreakers.
Yep, this is another interesting one. If OSU loses two more (including TCU) we get in with a Texas loss and WV win if OU and TX win out and Baylor beats K-State next week. With this result:


1. Iowa St (7 - 2) With Oklahoma, defeated Texas based on winning percentage against #4 teams [TCU] (1-0). Defeated Oklahoma based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Oklahoma (7 - 2) With Iowa St, defeated Texas based on winning percentage against #4 teams [TCU] (1-0). Lost to Iowa St based on head-to-head record (0-1). Defeated Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Texas (7 - 2) Lost to Oklahoma and Iowa St based on winning percentage against #4 teams [TCU] (0-1). Lost to Oklahoma based on head-to-head record (0-1).
 

mtowncyclone13

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I remember when bars in DSM were giving away free shots for every Cyclone TD vs Texas two years ago and we ended up laying an egg and not scoring a TD until garbage time. Then JP came on the radio and said we simply weren't ready for primetime as a fanbase.

As hyped up as I am, it seems odd that Iowa State rarely catches a break when it comes to teams ahead of us losing. Why does it always come down to this weekend?
 
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BCClone

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I remember when bars in DSM were giving away free shots for every Cyclone TD vs Texas two years ago and we ended up laying an egg and not scoring a TD until garbage time. Then JP came on the radio and said we simply weren't ready for primetime as a fanbase.

As hyped up as I am, it seems odd that Iowa State rarely catches a break when it comes to teams ahead of us losing. Why does it always come down to this weekend?
It rarely comes down to the second to last week for us.

the interesting thing is, we best Texas and the championship could have been played on the 12th. Since us and OU will both be available.
 

BCoffClone125

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It's fun to look at the different scenarios but bottom line is we've got to take care of business against UT on Friday. Even if we lost and still snuck into the title game it wouldn't feel as deserving. This is the ultimate "prove it" game for ISU.

IMO, this feels different than 2 years ago. I think we are a much more complete team across the board and aren't as reliant on a couple of studs (Montgomery, Butler) as we were back then. I'm sure Texas will be favored but if we play like we did yesterday they ain't beating us.
 

BCClone

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It's fun to look at the different scenarios but bottom line is we've got to take care of business against UT on Friday. Even if we lost and still snuck into the title game it wouldn't feel as deserving. This is the ultimate "prove it" game for ISU.

IMO, this feels different than 2 years ago. I think we are a much more complete team across the board and aren't as reliant on a couple of studs (Montgomery, Butler) as we were back then. I'm sure Texas will be favored but if we play like we did yesterday they ain't beating us.
If we want to be a conference contender/ and especially champ, we gotta beat the big dogs. And that means OU and Texas. Until we take care of them, we are just also rans. Why people give TCU and Baylor talk, they handled them a few years back. We can beat Texas, just need to do it.
 

dualthreat

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Remember two years ago we went down there and had to play without David Montgomery the entire first half serving that BS suspension
 
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