8-10 in the conference probably puts us on the wrong side of the bubble. That would be an incredible finish, but probably about a 1% chance of happening. Maybe less.
Not that I think we'll make the tournament, but there's pretty much no such thing as a bad loss in the BIg 12 outside of us in my opinion. The teams ahead of us at 5-7 in conference - Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma State - all still could make the NCAA tournament. ISU's only truly bad loss this year was Milwaukee.
Missouri is currently 17-8 and will most likely make the tournament unless they crap themselves in the final month. Then as far as wins go, beating Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Oklahoma help. Also, beating Boise State by double digits who is currently 20-4 and projected now as a 12 seed doesn't hurt. Unfortunately the rest of the non conference was mediocre at best, so that doesn't help.
If the team wins all the remaining games at Hilton (3 more - Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State) and maybe beat somebody like Kansas State in Kansas to finish the year at either 16-14 or 17-13, and maybe win at least one game in the BIg 12 Tournament, then honestly don't be surprised if they're talked about as a bubble team (11 or 12 seed). Who knows if they would get in, but I think even with a losing Big 12 record, it's possible. Now, if ISU got hot and won their remaining 6 games somehow, then I think they'd be in the tournament. Not a good seed, but still in.
Personally, I think if they make the NIT with this team, it'll be a decent accomplishment. Getting into the big dance would be quite amazing, but they can't really have any off nights anymore if they want to do that. Finish the season 2-4 and they might still make the NIT given the strength of the Big 12 this year.