What's bar we would have to clear to make the NIT?
TCU and Texas made the NIT in 2019.
Texas was 21-16 (8-10) and TCU was 23-14 (7-11).
Both were pretty high seeds, though, close to the NCAA tournament bubble.
Baylor and Oklahoma State did the season before.
Baylor went 19-15 (8-10) and OSU went 21-15 (8-10).
Looks like you need to have a win total in at least the high teens and at least seven Big 12 wins. Finish 9-9 in the Big 12 and that's probably going to be enough no matter the circumstances.
There are possible but still a reach compared to current projections.