Exactly this. Mathematically, of course everything is still out there in front of us. We can still make the B12 title game, win it, and make the playoff. But the way we have looked on the field the last two games gives me absolutely zero faith that we can actually execute and pull it off.
Speaking of math - I think that’s the best way to explain how I feel about this stuff. After the WVU game, I felt we would be favored in every game left (with the possible exception of the Big 12 Championship Game…and of course not including the playoff). But realistically winning all games and going undefeated is not likely. (It doesn’t happen often.)
So I ran the numbers and if you believed we had a 70% chance of victory in each of 6 games (not true…but just go with it), the most likely outcome is to win between 4&5 games. Winning 5 would slightly outperform…4 would slightly underperform. There’s about a 30% chance that you would win 5 games. There is only an 11% chance you would win all 6. So even if you were somewhat heavily favored in all 6 games, you only win in 5 or more a little less than half the time.
For those who are curious, a team would only go undefeated through conference play (including winning the championship game…so 9 games) 4% of the time (statistically) if they were a heavy 70% favorite in every single game.