CFB Returning Production

[Daserop]

Using Bill Connelly's Returning Production Stat, I was curious to see the correlation between returning production and how a team ended up (W/L record): P4 schools only. General take aways were.

If a team has less than 60% returning production, there's a high likelihood of having a rough season.

If a team has over 69% returning production, high likelihood have maintain or exceeding your (W/L) record from last season. There are a couple of outlier teams, but if you look into their 2024 schedule it was brutal (i.e. UCLA & Kentucky) which help explain the outlier.

 

[twojman]

I'm invested in Iowa State over 7.5. I'm thinking 8-4 or 9-3 for the 2025 season.

 

[Daserop]

I'm invested in Iowa State over 7.5. I'm thinking 8-4 or 9-3 for the 2025 season.

Agreed. There were only a handful of teams, who had greater than 3 losses. The teams that did (i.e. Michigan, Florida State) there were clear reason why.

 

[intrepid27]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

 

[CascadeClone]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

Was wondering same, and found this online-

Offense:

• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%

Defense:

• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%

By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.

So for ISU, of the 42% "lost" production, I'd wag that 15% is the receiving yards (almost all of it, times half for offense) and the other 25% is defense (e.g. lost half the snaps/tackes overall).

I am not so worried about the receivers, lease important position on that side of the ball. It's all about the defense. But if anyone can take a bunch of 3 star guys with limited experience and turn them into a Top 25ish defense... its Jon Heacock. Realistically optimistic.

 

[Cyched]

 

[CascadeClone]

Wow, if you plot wins vs returning production and do a linear trendline... the R^2 is 1.3%. The difference between 40% returning and 80% returning is like 2 wins avg. That's not nothing in a CFB season, but its within the randomness.
If you take the top 8 teams (which is appx 1 stdev above avg, and about 10% of sample):
wins: 3,3,5,6,8,8,11,11 (55 total)
Same for bottom 8 teams:
wins: 2,4,6,6,7,8,9,10 (52 total)




If you look at YOY win total changes, its a LITTLE better. R^2 is 7.6% which is still terrible.



But that same top 10 / bottom 10 analysis:
top 10 avg 0.1 LESS wins YOY (although if you take out OKSt, it's PLUS 0.9 wins.
bottom 10 avg 2.75 less wins (so there is something in that anyway)

Looking at it some more, below 60% it averages 3 less wins. (14 teams)
60 up to 70%, averages 0.9 more wins. (33 teams)
70% and up, averages 0.25 more wins. (goes up to 0.7 more wins without the fighting Gundys) (16 teams)

So imho, the only use of this is if you are under 60%, then you are at real risk of dropping significantly YOY. And of course the more wins you had prior, the farther you can fall. (e.g. Washington & Michigan).

I'd be curious if there is more or less correlation between the different components (offense vs defense, position groups, etc) and the wins or win delta. Someone else can do that if they can get the data.

 

[Daserop]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

Yes. I put 'overall' in the description

 

[Daserop]

Was wondering same, and found this online-

Offense:

• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%

Defense:

• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%

By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.

So for ISU, of the 42% "lost" production, I'd wag that 15% is the receiving yards (almost all of it, times half for offense) and the other 25% is defense (e.g. lost half the snaps/tackes overall).

I am not so worried about the receivers, lease important position on that side of the ball. It's all about the defense. But if anyone can take a bunch of 3 star guys with limited experience and turn them into a Top 25ish defense... its Jon Heacock. Realistically optimistic.

I put 'overall' in the description because I figured people would ask this. I can find the breakdown (offense & defense) for 2025 returning production, but I couldn't find it for 2024 (just overall).

 

[Daserop]

Never seen the Kool-Aid man with an AK-47 before.