So... How Will the Game go?

[aeroclone]

We'll struggle to run between the tackles and Purdy will not get endless time in the pocket for long-developing pass routes. If we keep trying to make those work instead of playing to our strengths, it will be a frustrating day. We are not going to out smash-mouth Iowa.

I want to see Purdy rolling out and using his legs to maximize his abilities. I think we can slip our running backs and tight end out for some easy pitch and catches. That would also slow down the pass rush.

On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa is going to take the 3-4 yard plays because it's what they are good at. Getting off the field on third down will be key. If we are fundamentally sound with our tackling, we should be able to keep Iowa around 17-20.

I don't think turnovers are going to be as important as penalties. We can't put ourselves in obvious passing downs with dumb penalties. Conversely, Iowa is much less built to play behind the chains than we are.

I'm guessing we fall behind early due to conservative play calling (maybe trail 13-7 at half). Then we rally to win 24-23 with Purdy making a game saving scramble at a critical moment.

I fear your first paragraph is going to be accurate. I see us trying to force the run between the tackles and trying to keep Purdy in the pocket. It just seems like we insist on playing to Iowa's strengths like this year after year. Then a couple weeks later the hawks will get lit up by some mobile QB from some place like Northwestern or Indiana and we will all wish we could have that game back.

I really hope I'm wrong. Free Brock!

 

[madguy30]

Only thing I want is a win. It doesn't matter come conference play, but 4 L's in a row is enough. Time to thin out the visitors on CF and a win will do that.

Not gonna happen.

 

[throwittoblythe]

I fear your first paragraph is going to be accurate. I see us trying to force the run between the tackles and trying to keep Purdy in the pocket. It just seems like we insist on playing to Iowa's strengths like this year after year. Then a couple weeks later the hawks will get lit up by some mobile QB from some place like Northwestern or Indiana and we will all wish we could have that game back.

I really hope I'm wrong. Free Brock!

This is my feeling as well. Our RBs had 20 carries for 44 yds last year. It felt like we were trying to play the same style as Iowa, but they were just better at it than we were. I'm a bit concerned we try to do the same thing this year. 2-3 yds on 1st/2nd down and we're in 3rd and 5+ yds frequently.

 

[madguy30]

This is my feeling as well. Our RBs had 20 carries for 44 yds last year. It felt like we were trying to play the same style as Iowa, but they were just better at it than we were. I'm a bit concerned we try to do the same thing this year. 2-3 yds on 1st/2nd down and we're in 3rd and 5+ yds frequently.

I'm ok with 3rd and 5s as long as ISU is trying to gain 6 or 7 yards instead of 20.

 

[aeroclone]

This is my feeling as well. Our RBs had 20 carries for 44 yds last year. It felt like we were trying to play the same style as Iowa, but they were just better at it than we were. I'm a bit concerned we try to do the same thing this year. 2-3 yds on 1st/2nd down and we're in 3rd and 5+ yds frequently.

I know a lot of that is the style that CMC wants to play and the identity he wants to build for the program. It works great as an against the grain strategy against all the speedy spread teams in the B12, but it plays right into Iowa's hands. We need to open it up in this game more than usual.

 

[FinalFourCy]

BUT, I also think we were 2-3 plays from that being a game we win 24-10 (two drive killer penalties that were likely scoring drives, the "fumble" TD by UNI)...so I guess i'm saying i actually feel better about the first game as i think about it.

It makes you feel good that a clean, well-played game (other than the standard few plays) resulted in OT against UNI? We’re not likely to have fewer mistakes this week. We only had 4 penalties in regulation, only one of which was a true drive killer, Newell’s hold on Purdy TD. That hold only happened after being forced to go for it on 4th down earlier in the drive. Really, the game swung on one play- a blown call by the officials. Hardly reassuring that nearly dominating UNI comes down to the refs judgement call on one play.

My (false) hope is the UNI game was just a needlessly risky game plan and the staff will call a great game on Saturday.

 

[moores2]

It makes you feel good that a clean, well-played game (other than the standard few plays) resulted in OT against UNI? We’re not likely to have fewer mistakes this week. We only had 4 penalties in regulation, only one of which was a true drive killer, Newell’s hold on Purdy TD. That hold only happened after being forced to go for it on 4th down earlier in the drive. Really, the game swung on one play- a blown call by the officials. Hardly reassuring that nearly dominating UNI comes down to the refs judgement call on one play.

My (false) hope is the UNI game was just a needlessly risky game plan and the staff will call a great game on Saturday.

So helmet popping off and continuing to push the pile penalty wasn't a drive killer? 1 and goal from the 9 vs 1st and 25? 2 drive killer penalties.

 

[Doc]

Probably pretty boring. We’re going to have to celebrate 4 yard gains and be super disciplined when Iowa gets tricky.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I fear your first paragraph is going to be accurate. I see us trying to force the run between the tackles and trying to keep Purdy in the pocket. It just seems like we insist on playing to Iowa's strengths like this year after year. Then a couple weeks later the hawks will get lit up by some mobile QB from some place like Northwestern or Indiana and we will all wish we could have that game back.

I really hope I'm wrong. Free Brock!

This is incredibly inaccurate. 2 years ago we turned Park loose and had himself a day. Last year we had a reshuffled o-line and an immobile QB who didn't have time to throw the ball... The whole "trying to out Iowa Iowa" narrative is just dumb.

 

[madguy30]

This is incredibly inaccurate. 2 years ago we turned Park loose and had himself a day. Last year we had a reshuffled o-line and an immobile QB who didn't have time to throw the ball... The whole "trying to out Iowa Iowa" narrative is just dumb.

Also Montgomery's big plays were straight up pitches to a side and letting him go to work iirc.

I understand that ISU is working on its discipline for further down the road but the best ISU has looked on offense has been when it's not trying to fit everything into a box.

 

[FinalFourCy]

So helmet popping off and continuing to push the pile penalty wasn't a drive killer? 1 and goal from the 9 vs 1st and 25? 2 drive killer penalties.

It resulted in 1st and 14 rather than 1st and 9 in the first quarter.

The question isn’t whether we had negative plays but whether they’re of a severity that is abnormal in their impact. We’ll have a penalty that results in that delta nearly every game. In a different spot in the field, it actually results in punting, so in some sense it was less of a drive killer than something like a hold on our side of the field.

We played well, yet only had limited scoring opportunities, a couple of which were besieged by small mistakes. Thin margin for error. We’ve had enough games to know that such inefficiency is a frequent version of ball-control offense.

 

[NickTheGreat]

I'm another vote for BORING. I hope it's exciting in our favor, but I'm guessing it's like the UNI game.

 

[Walden4Prez]

D is going to have to win the game. Take the UNDER.

 

[SolarGarlic]

It resulted in 1st and 14 rather than 1st and 9 in the first quarter.

The question isn’t whether we had negative plays but whether they’re of a severity that is abnormal in their impact. We’ll have a penalty that results in that delta nearly every game. In a different spot in the field, it actually results in punting, so in some sense it was less of a drive killer than something like a hold on our side of the field.

We played well, yet only had limited scoring opportunities, a couple of which were besieged by small mistakes. Thin margin for error. We’ve had enough games to know that such inefficiency is a frequent version of ball-control offense.

1st and 14 instead of 1st and 9 matters. That's a 55% increase. It puts the offense at a big disadvantage. And that's not taking into account that the running game was getting in a rhythm. The penalty gave the UNI defense a breather. Or the fact that the penalty was a bizarre call that gave no advantage to Iowa State. It wasn't a penalty that came from poor play.

I know you have a narrative that's really special to you this week, but "less of a drive killer than a hold on our side of the field"? Give me a break.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Also Montgomery's big plays were straight up pitches to a side and letting him go to work iirc.

I understand that ISU is working on its discipline for further down the road but the best ISU has looked on offense has been when it's not trying to fit everything into a box.

Same against UNI, we were at our best when we were stretching things out.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Also Montgomery's big plays were straight up pitches to a side and letting him go to work iirc.

I understand that ISU is working on its discipline for further down the road but the best ISU has looked on offense has been when it's not trying to fit everything into a box.

Those runs looked like Manning found a weakness in Iowa's alignment. They weren't adjusting, so we just kept running it. We ran the same play last week once. Hoping Manning can find a few more of those types of plays.

 

[ameslurker]

Iowa will probably be in more of a 4-3 because of DB injuries so the running game may be hard to come by unless they are able to set an edge. I think if they are in the 4-3 ISU will be able to get a couple shots down the field provided the OL can block the d-ends.

While I agree penalties and turnovers, and big plays are all huge I think the key for both teams will be winning first down and staying ahead of the chains. Let either team pin their ears back going for the QB and its not gonna end well.

 

[FinalFourCy]

1st and 14 instead of 1st and 9 matters. That's a 55% increase. It puts the offense at a big disadvantage. And that's not taking into account that the running game was getting in a rhythm. The penalty gave the UNI defense a breather. Or the fact that the penalty was a bizarre call that gave no advantage to Iowa State. It wasn't a penalty that came from poor play.

I know you have a narrative that's really special to you this week, but "less of a drive killer than a hold on our side of the field"? Give me a break.

No one said it didn’t matter. I completely agree that adding 5 yards to 1st down on a drive in the 1st quarter was a big deal in that game. What else can we add? Someone added loss of crowd excitement and momentum. We had such a thin margin for error that normal negative plays were fatal. That’s exactly the point.

We disagree on interpretation of whether such a thin margin for error against UNI is a positive. Depending on your expectations, having the talent to statistically dominate but succumbing to a handful of plays is a welcome inefficiency.

Which 55% increase in yardage is more of a killer, the one that increases your chance of a punt, or the one that pushes your field goal attempt back 5 yards? Nothing about that game suggests the 5 yards had a high certainty of taking away a TD.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Iowa will probably be in more of a 4-3 because of DB injuries so the running game may be hard to come by unless they are able to set an edge. I think if they are in the 4-3 ISU will be able to get a couple shots down the field provided the OL can block the d-ends.

While I agree penalties and turnovers, and big plays are all huge I think the key for both teams will be winning first down and staying ahead of the chains. Let either team pin their ears back going for the QB and its not gonna end well.

If Iowa rolls with a 4-3 I would expect us to try to get Jones isolated on the LB's.

 

[HOU_Blue]

A lot of it depends on Iowa’s game plan defensively, IMO. If Iowa sits in their base 4-3 and gives plenty of cushion, Iowa State is going to dink and dunk their way downfield and chew up time of possession. At that point, it becomes a matter of whether Iowa State scores TDs or whether Iowa’s defense can hold them to FG attempts.

What I would like to see Iowa do is be aggressive on defense- play a lot of press coverage and try to make Iowa State make throws down the field. I don’t think Iowa State’s offensive personnel is well equipped to do that against Iowa’s defense.