We'll struggle to run between the tackles and Purdy will not get endless time in the pocket for long-developing pass routes. If we keep trying to make those work instead of playing to our strengths, it will be a frustrating day. We are not going to out smash-mouth Iowa.
I want to see Purdy rolling out and using his legs to maximize his abilities. I think we can slip our running backs and tight end out for some easy pitch and catches. That would also slow down the pass rush.
On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa is going to take the 3-4 yard plays because it's what they are good at. Getting off the field on third down will be key. If we are fundamentally sound with our tackling, we should be able to keep Iowa around 17-20.
I don't think turnovers are going to be as important as penalties. We can't put ourselves in obvious passing downs with dumb penalties. Conversely, Iowa is much less built to play behind the chains than we are.
I'm guessing we fall behind early due to conservative play calling (maybe trail 13-7 at half). Then we rally to win 24-23 with Purdy making a game saving scramble at a critical moment.