We have had some success. But we are not at an Elite Level.......yet. Now is not the time to over react and pay $3 million plus for our young coach. His time will come IMO. I love Fred. We are a good fit for him and he for us. We have made the Sweet Sixteen. We have not won the National Championship. Keep it in perspective.
1.)You call it over-reacting, but it is actually about not being reactionary. You do not make contracts based on what someone has accomplished, you pay for what they will accomplish. You also do not pay based on what someone else is getting somewhere else. This market is not that competitive. There are not ready substitutes. Ben Howland went to 3 FF in 8 eight years, but was fired because of what they thought he was going to do. Of course, what they have done is often a large input into estimating what they can do, and thus their value.
2..) You do not solely decide what the market value is. Other suitors will not wait for you to make up your mind. Fred's market value is high, but before you think that is too high for ISU to pay...
3.) you better consider the alternative. Offering Fred $3 million as opposed to 2.25 or 2.5 is nothing considering the transaction and delay costs of getting an equal revenue generating replacement (see 2002-2012) Which, when considering externaliites with very real monetary consequences, is almost impossible.
The going rate for a young college coach like Fred is easily around 2.25 to 2.5 million
in the college market. It would not be easy to hire a major conference coach with 3 tournaments in the last 5 years, let alone 3 for 3, for anything less. If we want a coach that looks to have as much success, we will have to pay that at some point. Either that, or you go with the cheap blindfold selection that took us through the 10 years of 2002-12.
4.) Risk-reward- Due to the NBA and his unprecedented success at ISU, his market value is probably near $3, maybe north of that given Stevens got 3.66 What are the risks of offering him $3 as opposed to the $2.5 that is the rate for his replacement? Do you think if the unimaginable happens and things go sideways, Fred is going to sit there counting C-notes? Nope.It would take some real poor leadership to fret over paying around another 500k now, or to wait and make such an offer when his market value has increased yet again.
Some may say, but "he is not looking to leave", "he is not going to leverage the University to pay him that. Fred is not about the money". One way to make it about the money is to always drag your feet on what amounts to such a small amount relative to what he brings for the entire Iowa State University brand.
It is about appreciation, and a big way to do that is to have the faith to do it now, especially considering how little added risk it would be.