it won't line up like that this year, this version of the big 12 is watered down quite a bit compared to last years verson.
Is it? Iowa State and Houston were the only highly ranked teams last year, just like this year. Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and BYU were fringe top 20-25 teams.
It's pretty much the same this year. Iowa State and Houston with Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor and now Arizona being the top 25 teams. West Virginia and BYU could be tourney teams as well, the conference is about the same as last year.
Iowa State also has the Marquette win on their resume in the OOC this year as opposed to, what, last year.
There's room for error for 2-3 more losses to still be in line for a 1 seed. Two will likely come from the SEC, probably Duke who has much less room for error than Iowa State because of their weak conference, and then who, Iowa State or Houston most likely. Maybe Michigan State has an outside shot but they have very little on their resume. Another team with not much room for error.
Most of the strength of college basketball is in the SEC, remarkably so, and we won't see 3 teams from the same conference as a 1 seed.