What do the experts think about Friday? Still going to be a wild weather day or is that stuff going to remain down south?
***Official 2025 Weather Thread***
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itll be windy. and probably a strong line of storms, doubtful on tornadoes up here.
Weather gurus... My family flies out of msp at 5am Saturday (ugh.. That will be an experience)... Then we land at midway before then heading to Punta Cana. Will these storms give us any major issues on Saturday at either of those airports or should we be okay??
The internet hype for Saturday is already off the charts. “It’s 2011 all over again!”. We’ll see.
I did an intense raking of my yard on Monday and Tuesday. Filled my yardwaste container with all the thatch.
The main threat of tornadoes will be further south of us along the Mississippi River, we're mostly under threat for high winds. But tornadoes and hail can't be ruled out here either. Looks like it'll hit around 4-5 pm for those of us in Des Moines.
I’d be more worried about the kidnapping where you’re going than the weather.
The SPC is outlining a 5% tornado risk on central Iowa but I'm a bit doubtful.
It looks like NWS Des Moines is also skeptical on the likelihood of tornadoes in today's forecast discussion, due to high LCLs and low moisture (clouds will be high up and spin-ups/funnel clouds are unlikely to touch the ground) and the main threat is damaging winds and a potential derecho (also more severe to the south).
forecast.weather.gov
I'm looking at the short range models on Pivotal Weather. This is the HRRR's latest run for precipitation and dew: Iowa barely sees 50F dew points prior to the event, this is purely kinematic driven (i.e. high wind shear due to the bomb cyclone low that goes into the 970s and even 960s at spots, and lots of 100+ helicity though mainly in eastern Iowa into eastern Missouri/Illinois), I can see some spin ups but looking at most short range models the dews are similar so it may not even be severe thunderstorms.
The one exception is the NAM which shows 55-ish dews reaching up into Ames/Des Moines (60+ dews is best for tornadoes, although with a cyclone as strong as this one 50s esp. upper 50s could get the job done), in which case we'd get a big squall line/derecho event. As Convective Chronicles would say the NAM is notoriously bullish on dew points so it's likely a worst case scenario, but I suspect this is why the SPC put the 5% risk over central Iowa this morning despite moisture profiles and hodographs showing not much risk.
Storm Prediction Center May 28, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
National Weather Service
I'm looking at the short range models on Pivotal Weather. This is the HRRR's latest run for precipitation and dew: Iowa barely sees 50F dew points prior to the event, this is purely kinematic driven (i.e. high wind shear due to the bomb cyclone low that goes into the 970s and even 960s at spots, and lots of 100+ helicity though mainly in eastern Iowa into eastern Missouri/Illinois), I can see some spin ups but looking at most short range models the dews are similar so it may not even be severe thunderstorms.
The one exception is the NAM which shows 55-ish dews reaching up into Ames/Des Moines (60+ dews is best for tornadoes, although with a cyclone as strong as this one 50s esp. upper 50s could get the job done), in which case we'd get a big squall line/derecho event. As Convective Chronicles would say the NAM is notoriously bullish on dew points so it's likely a worst case scenario, but I suspect this is why the SPC put the 5% risk over central Iowa this morning despite moisture profiles and hodographs showing not much risk.
The SPC is outlining a 5% tornado risk on central Iowa but I'm a bit doubtful.
It looks like NWS Des Moines is also skeptical on the likelihood of tornadoes in today's forecast discussion, due to high LCLs and low moisture (clouds will be high up and spin-ups/funnel clouds are unlikely to touch the ground) and the main threat is damaging winds and a potential derecho (also more severe to the south).Storm Prediction Center May 28, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.www.spc.noaa.gov
National Weather Service
I'm looking at the short range models on Pivotal Weather. This is the HRRR's latest run for precipitation and dew: Iowa barely sees 50F dew points prior to the event, this is purely kinematic driven (i.e. high wind shear due to the bomb cyclone low that goes into the 970s and even 960s at spots, and lots of 100+ helicity though mainly in eastern Iowa into eastern Missouri/Illinois), I can see some spin ups but looking at most short range models the dews are similar so it may not even be severe thunderstorms.
The one exception is the NAM which shows 55-ish dews reaching up into Ames/Des Moines (60+ dews is best for tornadoes, although with a cyclone as strong as this one 50s esp. upper 50s could get the job done), in which case we'd get a big squall line/derecho event. As Convective Chronicles would say the NAM is notoriously bullish on dew points so it's likely a worst case scenario, but I suspect this is why the SPC put the 5% risk over central Iowa this morning despite moisture profiles and hodographs showing not much risk.
View attachment 145141 View attachment 145140
Where is the triple point going to come together?
The SPC is outlining a 5% tornado risk on central Iowa but I'm a bit doubtful.
It looks like NWS Des Moines is also skeptical on the likelihood of tornadoes in today's forecast discussion, due to high LCLs and low moisture (clouds will be high up and spin-ups/funnel clouds are unlikely to touch the ground) and the main threat is damaging winds and a potential derecho (also more severe to the south).Storm Prediction Center May 28, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.www.spc.noaa.gov
National Weather Service
I'm looking at the short range models on Pivotal Weather. This is the HRRR's latest run for precipitation and dew: Iowa barely sees 50F dew points prior to the event, this is purely kinematic driven (i.e. high wind shear due to the bomb cyclone low that goes into the 970s and even 960s at spots, and lots of 100+ helicity though mainly in eastern Iowa into eastern Missouri/Illinois), I can see some spin ups but looking at most short range models the dews are similar so it may not even be severe thunderstorms.
The one exception is the NAM which shows 55-ish dews reaching up into Ames/Des Moines (60+ dews is best for tornadoes, although with a cyclone as strong as this one 50s esp. upper 50s could get the job done), in which case we'd get a big squall line/derecho event. As Convective Chronicles would say the NAM is notoriously bullish on dew points so it's likely a worst case scenario, but I suspect this is why the SPC put the 5% risk over central Iowa this morning despite moisture profiles and hodographs showing not much risk.
View attachment 145141 View attachment 145140
All I can think of is the scene from the Italian Job when they go "We're in Italy, speak English"
Wherever the low is, placement of the low is in question RN but both HRRR and NAM RN show it coming through Nebraska and actually going just NW of Iowa. I saw some talks about a potential small cold core tornado setup in western-central Iowa if supercells do stay discrete before turning into a line (let's hope this doesn't happen).
FYI I'm not a meteorologist, I just got really into meteorology to try to manage my trauma around tornadoes in Iowa...
I think the person who made this thread might be a meteorologist (wxman1), IDK what he thinks about that above analysis...
Just thinking the further south it comes together it might find a sweetheart spot and cause some havoc.
