***Official 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Thread***

[Halincandenza]

I think KU is on upset watch in Rd 1.

I would normally agree, but looking at how they play just seems like a disaster against high majors. They are super small, play up tempo and press, most teams like Kansas can just pass over them and get easy baskets. You don't want KU to get out in transition, you want to force them to play in the half court where you can pack the paint and force them to beat you with jumpers. I saw some of their game against Purdue way back at the beginning of the season and it was like a varsity team playing a junior high team. Just easy bucket after easy bucket.

 

[CascadeClone]

Yea, the Illini are a puzzling team. They have some weird losses on their schedule, like losing @ Penn State, and Maryland at home. They also barely got by OSU in the Big 10 tournament. They were down to Nebraska and Wisconsin by double digits in both of their other tournament games before pulling away late.

I do see some similarities to that ISU team, where they had some weird losses, and ISU barely squeaked by Texas in the Big 12 tournament. Illinois seems a little stronger than that team, but it all depends on which team shows up, or if their opponent gets up and just doesn't let them back like everyone else has.

I wouldn't be shocked to see BYU take them out, that feels like a 50/50 game.

Morehead St can take them out.

 

[AvonLakeCyclone]

It's almost like he 'gamed the system.'

Along with Tom Izzo (19-14) and
ESPN Announcers (ACC hacks Greenberg, Williams, Bilas claiming ACC gets no respect and Big 12 gets too much)

 

[CloniesForLife]

I think KU is on upset watch in Rd 1.

As long as Dickinson is healthy I think they will be fine because Samford won't be able to stop him but I wouldn't trust them after that

 

[Gunnerclone]

As long as Dickinson is healthy I think they will be fine because Samford won't be able to stop him but I wouldn't trust them after that

I think he’s healthy enough to play but I don’t think he’s going by to be 100%. Dislocated shoulder is a concern on both ends for me: first end is the obvious it’s easier to dislocate again, second is it’s hard to get it out of your head that it’s easier to dislocate again.

 

[alarson]

The committee should have placed zero reliance on any coaches comments about players status. They should only evaluate if the players played or not in the conf. tournament. Players didn't play... drop their seed. IMO.

Or just don't consider injuries at all. Just look at their resume.

 

[NYCYFan]

Nice to see Virginia's undeserved inclusion blow up in the committee's face. A team that had one quality win since November.

Gotta stick up for my local team St. John's. Won 6 in a row including beating Creighton and then gave UConn one of their toughest games all season. There's no way you can tell me that Virginia deserved to be in over St. John's, it's just more nonsense about rewarding OOC wins many months ago over how a team is playing currently.

 

[Big_Sill]

Or just don't consider injuries at all. Just look at their resume.

I agree, however since the committee seems to be hell bent on factoring injuries / status, their method for doing so should place no reliance on coaches comments.

 

[dahliaclone]

I saw a stat yesterday that in the KenPom era, no team with a top offense and a defense >100 has made the Sweet 16. That was in reference to Alabama (3 Off; 112 Def), but Illinois is not far from that arbitrary threshold (2 Off; 92 Def).

UIUC / ISU would be a fascinating matchup of #2 offense vs #2 defense; but our offense is a magnitude better than their defense. If we don't throw an offensive clunker, we should beat them if they even get that far.

I'm glad the tough draw prevented everyone from jumping on our "final four bandwagon".

oh that's a good stat regarding Alabama. I had them going far I may need to rethink

 

[NYCYFan]

The amount of 'experts' that have Illinois going far in their brackets is mindboggling to me. They aren't bad but they aren't great. I have this weird sense they kind of remind me of our season we lost to UAB. Team that was 'hot' late winning their league title and everyone jumped on the bandwagon and many had us going very far that year. Dunno...not saying they are gonna lose to Morehead State but I really really don't see them beating BYU.

Explosive offense, strong guard play, lots of upper classmen. Those teams usually do well in the tournament.

 

[Ozclone]

Apparently, it's really hard to get transfers into school there so he has to sit out the portal for the most part and has to develop in house. You can't win young anymore.

I was at Duke a few years back and the Dean of admissions was quoting how high the percentage of applicants was that couldn't get in but caveated it by saying they do make exceptions for certain applicants implying the basketball players. I'm sure that Virginia has the ability to exempt the recruits from the admissions standards if they so choose.

 

[dahliaclone]

Explosive offense, strong guard play, lots of upper classmen. Those teams usually do well in the tournament.

i.e...ISU against UAB then?

 

[HFCS]

I think he’s healthy enough to play but I don’t think he’s going by to be 100%. Dislocated shoulder is a concern on both ends for me: first end is the obvious it’s easier to dislocate again, second is it’s hard to get it out of your head that it’s easier to dislocate again.

I completely thought McCuller was going to play at near 100%. Really surprised announcement he's out for tournament. The other injuries maybe actually are day to day but for whatever reason we heard these "load management" whispers making me think it was Self just realizing Cinci/Baylor/ISU were all horrible teams to potentially play while trying get healthy and not getting the double bye.

 

[bawbie]

As long as Dickinson is healthy I think they will be fine because Samford won't be able to stop him but I wouldn't trust them after that

I'm not sure - it's at altitude in SLC and Samford runs 12 guys and pushes the pace a lot. If they are able to get KU running, they can get Dickinson and others tired, and then if they make 3s they could make it competitive.

 

[Halincandenza]

I completely thought McCuller was going to play at near 100%. Really surprised announcement he's out for tournament. The other injuries maybe actually are day to day but for whatever reason we heard these "load management" whispers making me think it was Self just realizing Cinci/Baylor/ISU were all horrible teams to potentially play while trying get healthy and not getting the double bye.

McCullar has been injured for over a month. Self said he has only practices like 4 times since he got injured. He has played in some games and then aggravates it. I think the thinking was if he got almost two full weeks off he could go but seems like his knee still isn't great. From what I understand, Dickinson wasn't cleared to play medically for the tournament. He just got cleared for contact on Monday I believe.
I read where Self said earlier about McCullar that basically if he can't practice before the tournament they would just shut it down because they need to prepare like they don't have him to be able to do their best.

The load management talk was always weird to me because they were legit injured.

 

[cysmiley]

Yes but if you don't take Virginia then the #8 media market in D.C. has no one to tune in and root for. It isn't about them being worse than the teams you listed, it's about them being the only arguable option of UVA, WVU, VT, and Maryland.

There's James Madison

 

[Halincandenza]

Speaking of injuries. It still isnt confirmed that Kolek will play their first game.

 

[cyclones500]

Or just don't consider injuries at all. Just look at their resume.

There are some circumstances when I think assessment of an injury is valid, but it should be narrow and have only minor effect on selection/seeding.

Random fictional example - if a significant contributor misses a stretch of games, then returns to the lineup, and the performance of the team during his absense (taking into account metrics) varies significantly from the rest of the season results, maybe you take it into account. Any adjustment shouldn't involve a major swing either way.

 

[cyclones500]

There's James Madison

Yeah, but nobody knows who he is anyway!

 

[mynameisjonas]

Fun bunch of games to kick off the tourney Tomorrow.