I looked through most of the games and it found a couple 0-4s. That would make him 10-53 which takes him almost to 19%.
Nader's threes
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I looked through most of the games and it found a couple 0-4s. That would make him 10-53 which takes him almost to 19%.
I think everyone can agree that Nader's true % over 100,000 shots would be well over 22%. It's a small sample size
But not due to his liking for 3Ps. His current true % and effective fg % are both lowered by his 3P game, At his 3P shooting ability he should not be taking over 40% of his shots from beyond the arc.
Nader has the talent to be more than a 16 minute/game guy, but not unless he becomes more efficient.
His true 3pt % in game is surely better than 22%, and surely much better.
I agree I don't think it makes sense for him to be launching them willy nilly, but if Georges drives in and gets him an open 3, I'm 100% cool with him taking it. He does need to be a bit more picky though. Pump fake and attack the basket.
You know things are going well when the ISU nerds are spouting statistics and probability in argument.
Agree with this 100%. One of the reasons I think Georges' 3 pt % improved so much this year is his shot selection. Love the 3 pt pump fake he seems to have added halfway through the season as well.
He should not be allowed to shoot threes early in the clock when other options haven't even been "explored". I am in full agreement. He can be REALLY effective when he does what he's effective at. Dribbling baseline without a plan would be next on my "lets not do that" list.
Can't do that. Just because an guy on TV says that doesn't make it right statistically.
Still, no. If you take out the best and worst you end up back closer to the original mean.
See? We went from 22% to 17.5%, then back to 19%. That's just not a big enough difference when you're talking about less than 100 shots on the season.
Yes. When you're examining discrete data, especially binary (yes/no) data, you really need hundreds or even thousands of data points to start to tell significant differences. It depends of course on how big a difference you're trying to find and how confident you want to be that your conclusion is correct.
At Nader's current 14/63, we can say that we're 95% confident that his true 3FG% is somewhere between 12% - 32%.
I agree, but the shoots when he is open, not really contested, and in this sytem any other player would take that shot with the exception of McKay. He is playing in the system, and even though I agree with your post, my opinion will change just as soon as he hits two in a row. Go get them Nader.
No, his true 3P% is not higher than 22%.
Due to 3P shooting, his true shooting % is only ahead of Custer and Tsalmpouris and his eFG% is only ahead of Custer's.
We need more creators. Nader can create and finish. He can become very good if he learns when to manipulate the defense.
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demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
Nader is a solid and consistent FT shooter. Unless he is absolutely wide open AND we got a couple guys in good rebounding position, Nader needs to pass up the 3 and drive.
If I flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 6, is the true % of coin flips that will end up heads 60%? No.
Are you confusing true shooting percentage with what I'm saying? I do not mean his true shooting percentage, the advanced stat metric. I'm talking about what % he would hit from 3 given a truly large sample size.
Also, if you're bringing up Custer and Tsalmpouris, those sample sizes are REALLY way too small to make any comparisons.
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