Mathematically, this is a different question than estimating Nader's 3FG%. In Nader's case, we want to know what is the likelihood that a given 3FG is made. In McKay's case, we want to know if his FT% is different between the first and second half of his attempts. Because it is a HUGE change (50% to 70% is enormous when you're talking about percentages), we can say McKay's free throw shooting has improved even with the small sample size. In his first 64, the 95% confidence upper bound on his free throw percentage is 63%. Since the free throw percentage on his next 62 is greater than 63% (much greater actually), we can be very confident that he has improved his FT%. There are other methods you can use (statistical process control or SPC) to identify when his FT% changed "significantly." I did that a couple weeks ago, and it appears that his FT% changed around the time that the media reported on his 500FT/day.
